Here’s another little talked about reason to pursue Amare Stoudemire at the trade deadline: it eliminates the potential for the Cavaliers to get him. Cleveland is perhaps the front-runner at the moment for Stoudemire’s services; they have no chance to get him in free agency.

If the Cavs land Stoudemire, you’d have to think they become the clear-cut favorites to reach the N.B.A. finals. And not just this year, but perhaps for the next half decade. Even assuming the Heat would be successful in acquiring Chris Bosh on the free agent market, could a Wade/Beasley/Bosh trio – coupled with ten at or near minimum contract players – ever truly compete with the Cavaliers of today plus Amare?

Ask yourself that question honestly. What’s it worth to you to ensure that doesn’t happen? Micheal Beasley? A first round draft pick?

There are a couple of things working in the Heat’s favor.

First, Amare wants a 3-year / $55+ million contract. The Cavs will certainly not extend him for anywhere near that amount unless James extends first. James is not going to extend. He leaves too much money on the table by not signing a new contract in the offseason. Under C.B.A. rules, James could be extended for a total of four seasons beyond the current, versus six in a new contract. Thus, Miami will still have the opportunity to lure James away. But if Cavs follows through and win an N.B.A. title this season, and they control Stoudemire’s bird rights, it could be a very tough sell.

Second, Stoudemire reportedly wants to play in the warm weather of Miami. That could help in the offseason. But with the Heat focused on others – namely James and Bosh – and Stoudemire’s demands exceeding his value, he could take offense and decide to ink a new contract with James & Co.

Sometimes we get so wrapped up in what we’re trying to do that we miss what’s happening around us. The Heat’s pursuit of Stoudemire could well be nothing more than the logic result of game theory.

Whether the Heat can do anything to stop it is a different story.

Heat management seems committed to ridding the team of Dorell Wright’s salary obligations, and for good reason. Such a divestiture – most likely to the Grizzlies – would instantly save Micky Arison $7 million from this terribly unprofitable season. Despite his improved play, and despite transforming himself into perhaps the team’s best small forward, keeping Wright does not make financial sense. He’d effectively be just a two-month rental on a team not destined to compete for a championship. It wouldn’t be a popular decision amongst Heat fans, but it is economic reality. Yes, Micky can afford to keep him. Does that mean he should?

Heat management also seems committed to acquiring Amare Stoudemire. As I’ve detailed in numerous posts over the past weeks, this is also a worthwhile effort. Such an acquisition could set off a chain of events that leads straight to the N.B.A. finals.

But neither of these pursuits should be the Heat’s top priority heading into All-Star weekend. The team’s primary focus should be on unwinding the James Jones and Daequan Cook mistakes. These two contracts are all that stands in the way of the Heat’s genuine pursuit of three max contract free agents.

In order to explain, I’m going to get a bit technical with the mathematics. If you choose not to follow along, suffice it so say the math works…

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The 2010 free agent class is poised to be among the best in N.B.A. history. Nearly one-third of all the association’s teams are attempting to position themselves to maximize cap space in order to make a run at one or several of them. With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring after next season and the terms of any new agreement sure to be more restrictive, the coming off-season could very well represent the last major opportunity for players to secure premium contracts. There are sure to be some fireworks over the next several months.

In 2009, the salary cap dropped from $58.7 million to $57.7 million, accompanied by a warning from the league to the teams of a projected revenues drop in the range of 2.5% to 5.0% for the 2009/10 season. This would result in a 2010/11 cap in the range of $50.4 million to $53.6 million. Mid-season returns have led to a revised projection that is in the higher end of this range, so the best estimate at this time is $53 million to $54 million.

The amount of a maximum offer is typically quite difficult to pin down at this point in the season. It changes from year to year along with the salary cap, it varies with the number of years a player has been in the league, and it may depend on a player’s previous salary. For the coming season, all 30 NBA teams have the benefit of knowing with reasonable certainty how much a top earner will make – $16,568,908 will almost certainly be the magic number. This is the amount LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh each will be eligible to receive, based on their current salaries. A team that wants to make a pitch to one of these players will need to have that much available, and not a penny less.

With the Feb. 18 trade deadline now less than a week away, let’s take another look at the teams that are competing with the Heat to make a run. The amount of cap room teams project to have is nebulous at this point for a few reasons. First, the salary cap has not been yet; I will use $54 million. Second, a cap hold is added for a team’s first-round draft picks, and the amount varies by the team’s draft position, which is yet to be determined; I will exclude the impact of first round draft picks because teams can always choose to renounce them to recover the cap space if they so desire. Finally, there is a cap hold for each open roster spot below 12, but they are removed as the roster builds back up. So, these amounts are approximate.

The Nets seem poised to break the all-time N.B.A. record for futility, but just five months from now they could offer the most intriguing array of talent. New Jersey will have a 25% chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2010 draft. If the balls bounce favorably, the Nets will select Kentucky point guard John Wall. Paired up with center Brook Lopez, this would project to be a solid core for the rest of the decade. The move to Brooklyn and the promise of free-flowing cash from new owner and Russia’s richest man, Mikhail Prokhorov, would make such a proposition difficult to resist. The Nets can create as much as $24 million of cap space, assuming the cap hold of a first overall draft selection. And that doesn’t incorporate the perhaps expendable Devin Harris and his $9 million salary. The future of the Nets may all depend upon the bounce of a ping pong ball.

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Pat Riley and owner Micky Arison are committed to rebuilding the Heat franchise through free agency next offseason. That should give South Floridian conspiracy theorists plenty of time to dream up new rumors of a Wade-James tandem (the two bumped into each other while shopping in the Bay Area as they continue along their West Coast road trips).

So what sort of activity could we see from the Heat before February 18 trade deadline?

Let’s look at the possibilities…

• Chris Bosh. With recent reports that the Heat’s top priority is to sign whichever of LeBron, Bosh or Stoudemire is available first, you’d have to believe the Heat would consider any trade deadline possibilities involving Bosh. The problem here is that the only real non-Wade trade chip the Heat has is Michael Beasley, and the Raptors have no interest. Several teams have a genuine interest in Bosh and much more valuable trade pieces to get a deal done. The Lakers have apparently offered up their budding young center Andrew Bynum to no avail. Bosh is unlikely to go anywhere, least of all Miami.

• Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire’s name was thrown around a lot in trade rumors at the start of the season. After spending 22 hours a day for 10 straight days lying on his chest and staring down at the floor as part of his effort to rehabilitate his detached retina, there were plenty of reasons to doubt he’d ever again be the impact player of seasons past. But, sure enough, he is now beginning to play back into All-Star form. His pick-and-roll teammate and team leader, Steve Nash, has just signed an extension that will keep him a Sun through the 2012-13 season… and the Suns are playing very well.  But he is as extreme an injury risk as there comes, and the Suns remain reluctant to throw the kind of money at him that he wants. He could surely be had for the right price, but don’t bet on the Heat having the foresight to get it done.

• Dorell Wright. Dorell Wright is finally healthy in this his 6th NBA season, and his contributions on the court are beginning to reflect his talent. The problem here is mathematics. The simple fact is the Heat are $2.8 million over the luxury tax threshold and Dorell has a $2.9 million salary. Avoiding the luxury tax means big-time savings for Micky Arison. In addition to the 2.8 million luxury tax dollars Arison would have to fork over if the team were over the cap and the $1.2 million left to be paid on Dorell’s contract, he would also sacrifice a luxury tax distribution check issued to teams under the tax line (estimated to be $3.7 million). That $7.7 million potential savings may cause Arison to look the other way when it comes to Dorell’s resurgent on court performance… Among the teams that could accommodate such a trade without returning back salary are the LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. The Grizzlies are rumored to have an interest. All it should take is a first round draft pick. It’s not about this season for the Heat. It’s all about the next. A first round draft pick and $7.7 million are simply too much to pass up for a few extra games of Dorell Wright, who will become a free agent in the offseason regardless.

We all know the benefit of waiting for free agency: The unquestioned king of the NBA, LeBron James, will be set free for a possible pairing with friend Dwyane Wade. The dream is as alive as it has ever been.

So… what’s the cost?

In short, money.

The salary cap for next season is currently projected at $54.0 million. Utilizing this figure as a benchmark, I will attempt to demonstrate what the costs and the benefits are to the Miami Heat of rebuilding via free agency versus starting the process at the upcoming trade deadline.

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Free Agency: If the Heat were to elect to rebuild through free agency in the summer of 2010, as has been Pat Riley’s plan for the past three seasons, the team would be confined by the limits of the salary cap. That’s $54.0 million, and no more!

None of the exceptions commonly thrown around would be applicable. About the only way for the Heat to exceed this figure would be by signing minimum contract players (teams can sign as many such players as they choose, no matter their salary cap situation).

The Heat currently has Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook under contract for next season, and James Jones has a partial guarantee. That’s $9.0 million already used up. Dwyane Wade and another max contract free agent would be at least another $33.1 million. And the upcoming first round draft pick would eat even more.

Here’s how it might look:

Current Roster Players (Beasley, Cook, and Jones guarantee): $9.0 million
First Round Draft Pick (assumed #15 overall): $1.4 million
Max Contract Players (Wade and James?): $33.1 million
Total: $43.6 million

Unless the salary cap gets an unexpected jolt, the Heat would have just $10.4 million with which to complete its roster, of which no more than $7.6 million could be spent on any one player. That kind of cash might buy a high-quality third starter, with the entire rest of the roster, 7-9 players, relegated to minimum contracts.

That’s a big risk, with the potential for a big return.

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Trade Deadline: If the Heat were to start the rebuilding process at the trade deadline, the team would have no salary cap constraints. They could conceivably spend nearly twice the amount described above, as some teams are doing this season!

Of course, all roster improvements would need to come primarily through trade, and the Heat doesn’t have many trade assets to speak of. But if trade partners could be found, the Heat would be eligible to receive back players with salaries of up 125% + $100,000 of those they trade away. That’s more than $70 million of potential salary to surround Dwyane Wade with.

The Heat would also have access to both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. The mid-level exception would allow the Heat to sign any free agent up to the average salary (~$5.8 million). It may be split and given to multiple players. The bi-annual exception would allow the Heat to sign one additional player to a one or two-year contract starting at $2.1 million.

The Heat would also be allowed to sign its first round draft pick.

We’re talking about more than $100 million to play with.

Of course, this is just a depiction of how much the team could spend. There are many reasons why it would never happen: (i) all trades need two willing parties, (ii) finding takers for every Heat free agent is patently ridiculous, and (iii) we’re talking huge luxury tax considerations.

But it does raise an important question: what’s the right strategy?

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The answer could depend on what’s available next month.

A trade for Amare Stoudemire – pairing him with Wade – would be a solid start. And since Amare is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, it would not risk the free agency alternative. The Heat should undoubtedly focus its efforts to this end.

If more could be layered on top of this combination before the trade deadline (with the prospect of the mid-level, bi-annual and first round draft pick exceptions to come), going all in at the trade deadline could prove to be the better strategy.

If not, LeBron James here we come!