Well, apparently Pat Riley will wait until the start of free agency to upgrade to his championship roster.

The Heat selected Mississippi State power forward Arnett Moultrie with its No. 27 pick in today’s NBA draft, but then promptly dealt the SEC’s leading rebounder to the Philadelphia 76ers.

In exchange, the Heat received a future first round pick from the 76ers and the No. 45 pick in the second round of the draft, which Miami used to select LSU center Justin Hamilton, who is expected to be sent overseas for development next season. The first-round pick the Heat acquired is lottery protected for the next three seasons, meaning the Heat will get the pick as soon as Philadelphia makes the playoffs. If they miss the playoffs in all three seasons, the pick will turn into two second round picks — one in 2015 and another in 2016.

On the face of it, the move was something of a steal for the Heat. The pick they gave up was No. 27 overall. The one they obtained is likely to be in the high teens a year later, and in the meantime Miami still got to use Philly’s second-rounder.

But the trade comes in direct contrast to the plan laid out by the Heat’s vice president of player personnel, Chet Kammerer, during his pre-draft media session with reporters the day prior. Kammerer had suggested that the Heat were planning to draft a player with the pick, one who could contribute immediately and complement the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

As it turned out, a wild draft left such a possibility still on the board at No. 27.

The 6-foot-11-inch, 235-pound Moultrie seemed to be just the kind of player Miami could use to add depth to a thin front line that features just Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Dexter Pittman and Joel Anthony. Moultrie is long and athletic, with great quickness, explosive leaping ability, and a knack for grabbing and finishing off offensive rebounds. But he is also a skilled perimeter player with range that many expect will extend all the way out to the three-point line in time, a vital component for a Heat team that had postseason success by playing three-point shooting specialist Shane Battier out of position at power forward. Moultrie, therefore, seemed to be a perfect fit.

The Heat had other intriguing options available as well, including Baylor’s Perry Jones III at combo forward — a super-athletic big with the skills of a guard and the height of a center.

So why the trade?

Many have speculated that the rationale for the trade was the financial flexibility it provides. By trading out of the first round of the draft, the Heat won’t have to add a multi-year guaranteed contract to a payroll that already exceeds the league’s $70.3 million luxury-tax limit. Such a rationale, however, seems unlikely. The salary scale of a player selected at No. 27 in the draft, $868,600, is roughly identical to the minimum salary contract to which the roster spot is now likely to be allocated. There’s no savings there. And, as far as next year is concerned, the Heat will likely find itself in this very same situation – required to offer a multi-year guarantee to the player selected with its newly acquired pick, only this pick will very likely be much higher up than No. 27, and thus significantly more expensive. There’s no savings there either.

Riley’s explanation, that “the players that we had on our board were not there at the time, and we felt we had a great option with Philly to get a future first next year” is also not very likely. The depth in the 2013 draft is widely considered to be comparatively weak.

A more likely rationale for trading into a future first round pick is in its potential value as a trade asset.

Teams are restricted by league rule from trading away all of its future first round draft picks in consecutive years. The Heat has already traded away its 2013 first rounder and its 2015 first rounder to the Cleveland Cavaliers as part of the LeBron James sign-and-trade. Therefore, without the Philly pick, the Heat couldn’t have utilized a first round pick in trade until the 2017 draft at the earliest. So it opens up a world of potential trade possibilities.

The Heat has several undesirable long-term contracts allocated to players who figure to have a diminishing role in the years to come — among them Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony. That doesn’t bode well for a team which will have a payroll well in excess of the luxury tax threshold for 2013-14 and beyond, when the league’s more punitive tax penalties kick in. Riley will presumably look to trade away at least one at some point in the future, and it won’t be easy. The toxic nature of these contracts would suggest that the Heat might need to include additional assets as an enticement to complete such a trade, let alone expect anything of value back in return. As it stands, the Philly pick now represents the Heat’s best trade asset.

And so what otherwise might have been a promising young rookie in Moultrie may well become nothing more than a means in which to undue a bad mistake. That’s the cost of doing business. Mistakes are inevitable. And costly to unwind.

And so passes by another uninspired NBA draft… unless, of course, it turns into something great next year.

Well… the Miami Heat traded up three spots in the 2011 NBA Draft, into the first round at No. 28, to select what it believes was the most promising point guard available in Norris Cole. It was a welcome aggression for a typically draft-passive organization.

Riley wanted a “pure” point guard; he got his man.

He got a talented one at that. When a player scores 41 points, grabs 20 rebounds, and dishes out 9 assists in a single game (even if it was versus an admittedly forgettable Youngstown State team), you know he’s a serious offensive threat. When that player also nabs his conference’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards in the same season (even if it was in the admittedly forgettable Horizon League), you have Norris Cole.

Cole rated out as the fourth and fifth best point guard in the draft, respectively, by Riley and ESPN draft guru Chad Ford. Riley had him ranked No. 18 on his draft board; Ford had him going as high as No. 21. The Heat were enamored with Cole’s speed and defensive ability at the point guard position. But as a slender guard with short arms and questionable range, showcasing his talents in an inferior conference, he’s far from a sure thing. Time will tell.

We can debate whether trading up was necessary and justified.

Detractors will point to the enhanced financial obligations to a first round pick in what figures to be an uncertain salary cap environment. They will point out that the increased financial burden was the result of moving up just three spots, from No. 31 to No. 28. They may even suggest that it was truly just one spot. Two of the three were owned by the Bulls, the team which facilitated the trade of  Cole to the Heat. The Bulls then formally made the selection of Cole, dealt him to the Timberwolves, who then moved him to the Heat. Had the Bulls been targeting Cole, they clearly wouldn’t have do so.

But the Heat wanted Cole. “There was a consensus that this was the player that we wanted to take,” Riley said. “We didn’t want to get left at the altar.”

He was cognizant that the Spurs, who had agreed to trade their backup point guard George Hill to the Indiana Pacers earlier in the day, could jump in front of the Heat and select a point guard at No. 29, and in fact they did. The trade was therefore necessary, and so skillfully executed.

But the price was steep. More steep than necessary?

The Heat surrendered to the Wolves the Wolves’ own 2014 second round pick and cash considerations to move up just three spots. The Bulls, as part of the same trade, surrendered to the Wolves a less attractive second round pick (No. 43) and cash considerations to move up five more valuable spots. The Bulls gave up less and got more.

In the 2010 draft, pick Nos. 25 and 31 were each sold for cash.

It would appear that adding in cash alone, or perhaps instead a future second round pick of their own, would have made for an eminently more reasonable swap for the Heat. It would appear that trading away the Wolves’ own 2014 second round pick and cash considerations would be enough to simply buy the No. 28 pick outright, without the need for a swap. Imagine the Heat with Norris Cole and a second youthful player selected with the No. 31 pick. Of course, we will never know whether such alternatives were bargained for.

And so now the Heat has just two low-level first round and five low-level second round draft picks over the next five years.

The Heat has, in effect, traded away Michael Beasley in return for the draft rights to Norris Cole. If, as a result, the team has identified a key contributor, then all is well. If, by chance, the team has identified a future starter, then all is wonderful and this will go down as a spectacular draft for Riley and crew.

Is Norris Cole the Heat’s answer at point guard? It certainly seems as if he has that potential. But the pressure is on.

And so it goes for Pat Riley and the Miami Heat.

Here’s to wishing Mr. Cole all the success in the world.

Pat Riley had a plan. He executed upon it with deadly precision. He got the big things so right that it almost didn’t matter how he handled the little things.

But not all of those little things went perfectly.

What if he did better with those little things? With the 2011 NBA draft now bearing down on us, would it have made any difference?

Navigating the uncertain waters of the draft has always been a special kind of hell for Riley. Riley’s draft record with the Heat reads more like a comedy of errors than it does a serious attempt at identifying talent.

Since having Dwyane Wade fall into his lap in 2003, only three players he’s selected have ever played more than eleven big-league minutes for the Heat – Dorell Wright, Wayne Simien, and Michael Beasley. The very next players taken in those drafts were Jameer Nelson, David Lee, and, two picks down, Russell Westbrook.

Even when Pat gets it right, he gets it wrong. Da’Sean Butler was labeled the steal of last season’s draft. But, for some (inexcusable) reason, Riley decided to offer Butler a contract while he was still recovering from his traumatic left knee injury. The contract sealed his fate. Da’Sean is no longer part of the Heat’s future.

Perhaps it is something of a blessing that he now has just eight picks, just two first rounders, to deal with over the next five years.

Was it a combination of strong basketball decisions or his strong aversion to the type of scrutiny that comes with the draft that led Riley and the Miami Heat to this position?

Riley again yesterday openly described his aversion.

“I don’t think you win championships with young, athletic players that don’t have experience. I think we’ve learned over the years that building with young players is very frustrating.”

But what if things were different?

What if the Heat had made some different decisions along the way?

There was Dorell Wright.

In a season to that point mired in frustration, and seemingly defined by the anticipation of things to come, keeping Wright at the trade deadline was perhaps the single most popular decision the Heat brass made. Riley and crew decided that Wright’s presence was more of a priority than the estimated $7.7 million addition to owner Micky Arison’s already fat wallet.

Wright responded in kind, offering some of the best work of his career.

But not all of us were so thrilled. A select few among us realized that if the Heat were to be successful in its bid for three max contract free agents, the team would need to soak up every possible opportunity to create depth around them.

The Grizzlies were offering a lottery-protected first round pick in return for his services. This select few realized that, despite Wright’s overwhelming popularity and still very much untapped potential, 26 final games from a free-agent-to-be in a season going nowhere was simply not worth $7.7 million and a future first round draft pick. That pick ended up being No. 20 overall in tomorrow’s draft.

There was Daequan Cook.

We all understood the rationale behind surrendering the No. 18 overall pick in last year’s draft in order to be free of all obligations to Cook. With such high stakes, Miami could hardly afford to gamble on either the $2.2 million devoted to Cook or the $1.2 million to be devoted to whomever the pick would have become.

But not all of us agreed on the approach. Some of us felt that the $2.2 million could rather easily be shed simply by offering a potential suitor up to the $3.0 million cash limit the CBA allows. How many unprofitable smaller-market teams could realistically pass up the opportunity to add backcourt depth in the form of a young and developing Three-Point Shootout champion not only free of charge, but at an $830k profit?

These same people felt that treating the No. 18 overall pick with such apathy was imprudent, that it could be better utilized in a trade for a similar such pick in a future draft. As it turns out, Oklahoma City did just that. The Thunder traded the pick to the L.A. Clippers for a 2012 first round pick (top-10 protected through 2015, unprotected in 2016).

There was the Big Three.

When Chris Bosh and LeBron James made their decisions, there was elation. When they were signed, there was controversy.

Surrendering four first round picks and two second round picks, in addition to two large trade exceptions, seemed a bit excessive to some of us for a couple of players who were otherwise already committed to the Miami Heat. It seemed a bit excessive in return for nothing more than a sixth season tacked on to an already huge five-year contract.

The question has been asked. What if things were different?

Let’s try to answer it.

Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby would still be battling it out for starter’s minutes at the point.

Eddie House and Da’Sean Butler would be battling it out for reserve two-guard minutes. Mike Miller would, unfortunately, be playing under a long-term contract elsewhere.

James Jones would still be the Heat’s primary reserve small forward.

Udonis Haslem’s contract would remain unaltered.

The disastrous contingent of Heat centers would remain unaltered (assuming, of course, that Pittman would have still been on the board at No. 41; no mock draft had him even being selected).

LeBron James and Chris Bosh would be playing under full maximum contracts, sacrificing that sixth year guarantee in exchange for an added $8.4 million over the first five.

Dwyane Wade would still be playing under a six year contract, earning $4.8 million more than he is today.

And the Miami Heat would have six – yes, six! – more first round draft picks and two more second round draft picks over the next five years, including a likely lottery pick from the Clippers in 2012 and a potential unprotected first round pick from the Raptors in 2015 that could very easily turn into the No. 1 overall pick in the draft in the season immediately after the contracts of LeBron and Chris would expire.

In short, the Heat would have produced the very same roster, save for swapping out Mike Miller for Da’Sean Butler, and would have stockpiled a whopping eight first round picks and eight second round picks over the next five years.

That’s 16 picks in just five years! No other team in the league has anywhere near that total.

(For those that are counting, the first round picks would have been: Miami’s own 2011-15, Memphis’ 2011, L.A. Clippers’ top-10 protected 2012, and Toronto’s potentially unprotected 2015. The second round picks would have been: Miami’s own 2013-2015, Oklahoma City’s 2011, Minnesota’s 2011 and 2014, New Orleans’ 2012, and Memphis’ top-55 protected 2012.)

One has to wonder.

What would two first round picks (Nos. 20, 28), a second round pick (No. 31), and the Clippers’ top-10 protected first round pick in next year’s draft get you? A top ten pick in this year’s draft? More?

What would two first round picks (Nos. 20, 28), a second round pick (No. 31), the Clippers’ top-10 protected first round pick in next year’s draft, and what figures to be a fully unprotected Raptors first round pick in 2015 get you? The No. 2 overall pick from a Minnesota Timberwolves team actively looking to trade it? More?

The possibilities with that grouping of picks would have, in this fictional reality, been endless.

If Riley’s aversion to the draft was ever present, think of the potential trade possibilities. By way of example, rumor would have you believe that the Phoenix Suns were shopping Marcin Gortat and their No. 13 pick for the No. 2 pick. Imagine if the Heat had acquired that No. 2 pick, and then pulled the trigger on this trade (involving, perhaps, Joel, the unguaranteed contract of Dexter, and any one of the minimum contractors who picks up his second year option to make the math work).

How would Gortat look in a Heat uniform? He’s huge, he’s athletic, he’s among the best pick-and-roll operators around, he’s got a soft touch around the rim, he’s got good range, he’s a solid post defender, and he’s a beast on the boards. Is there a more perfect fit for this Miami Heat team, outside of Dwight Howard, in the whole of the NBA? Can you imagine how dominant such a Big Four would be?

How would Jimmer Fredette look with that No. 13 pick?

How would it feel to have secured both Gortat and Fredette, and still have four first round and seven second round picks to play with over the next five years?

It’s not as if an entirely unrealistic scenario is being painted here. Many of us were questioning each one of these little decisions made by Riley and his crew as they were happening. Of course, they are now important only for those among us who choose to live in the past.

The lesson, however, remains the same: Ignore the NBA draft at your own peril.

Here’s to hoping for a good day tomorrow.

Here’s to hoping the Miami Heat spend the time and effort in seeking out the best possible fit for this team. Reggie Jackson? Charles Jenkins?

Here’s to hoping that, no matter who it is the Miami Heat select, they take the time to properly develop him.

The Michael Beasley transaction was completed yesterday with a bit of an unexpected turn. Instead of a swap right of future first round positions, Miami will acquire Minnesota’s 2011 and 2014 second-round picks.

The rest of the off-season figures to be low key from a draft pick trading standpoint.

Here’s an overview of the Miami Heat’s future draft pick scenario:

2011: No first round picks; one second round pick (Minnesota)
2012: One first round pick (swap right to Cleveland); one second round pick (Memphis; top-55 protected)
2013: No first round pick; one second round pick
2014: One first round pick; two second round picks (Minnesota)
2015: No first round pick; one second round pick

Here is a detailed review of the pick flow: Read more…

How highly do you value your first round draft picks?

Not so much if you’re Pat Riley.

And for good reason. Riley has been shockingly unsuccessful with his first round draft selections since having Dwyane Wade fall into his lap with the fifth overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft.

In 2004, with the Heat in desperate need of a point guard, Riley selected Dorell Wright with pick No. 19. Jameer Nelson was the next player selected.

In 2005, with the Heat seeking depth at power forward, Riley selected Wayne Simeon with pick No. 29. David Lee was the next player selected.

In 2006, the Heat had no pick.

In 2007, Riley completed a draft-day swap for Daequan Cook at pick No. 21. Cook never shot better than 38% in any season during his Heat tenure, and was unceremoniously exiled last month, along with a first round draft pick, in favor of the cap space.

In 2008, with the Heat again starving at point guard and the blockbuster free agent class of 2010 flush with power forwards, Riley selected Michael Beasley with the No. 2 overall pick. Beasley is being shipped away for two second round draft picks. Russell Westbrook, selected two picks later, has become a perennial All-Star at point guard.

In 2009, the Heat had no pick. It was sent to Minnesota as part of the regrettable Ricky Davis, Mark Blount trade. The Wolves used the pick to draft Ty Lawson.

Not good. And Pat knows it:

I’ve said in the past, and I believe this, that the way I always want to build a team is through free agency and trades. Probably some of the best players we’ve gotten here were free agents and trades.

Also, through the draft. But the only way you build through the draft is to lose and get three, four, five years of Top 10 lottery picks. Since (losing to get those picks) has never been a philosophy of mine – we’ve only had three lottery picks in 15 years – I always use (draft picks) as an adjunct to help free agency and trades. As chips I would use maybe to acquire players through trade.

Perhaps his philosophy is one formulated by a track record of consistent failure. But he certainly has remained staunchly committed to his word.

Riley has traded away four first round and two second round draft picks in the past few hours, for two players already committed to the Miami Heat.

Read more…

Well, Riley picked up guard Daequan Cook’s team option back in October. It was a mistake which forced the team to surrender its No. 18 overall pick in order to unwind.

At No. 18, both Eric Bledsoe and Avery Bradley were available for the taking. If you believe either had the potential to be a future high-quality starting point guard in this league, then that was the true cost of the Cook blunder. If you’d rather have seen the pick traded for a future pick, then such a pick  – perhaps between Nos. 16 and 20 overall next season – is the true cost.

The Thunder, who took on Cook in exchange, used the No. 18 pick to draft Bledsoe, who was subsequently dealt to the Clippers for a protected future first round pick. So… at the very worst, Riley sacrificed his point guard of the future. At the very least, if he preferred the extra $1.2 million in cap space pick No. 18 eats up, he sacrificed a protected future first rounder. It’s hard to believe that the price to jettison Cook couldn’t have been substantially cheaper. As far as general managers go, Pat Riley got used by Sam Presti on that one.

The Heat did get the 32nd overall pick in the trade, which it used to acquire 22-year old University of Texas senior Dexter Pittman. Pittman is an undersized center, at 6’9.5″ without shoes, with a huge 7’6″ wingspan and the biggest hands in the draft (whatever that means). He tips the scales at over 300 pounds, having already dropped more than 60 pounds during his four seasons with the Longhorns and playing at nearly 400 pounds in high school. His nearly 21% body fat (fourth highest in draft history) suggests he still has a long ways to go with his conditioning. Read more…

Per Andy Katz and Peter May:

The Boston Celtics have put their first-round pick in Thursday’s draft — No. 19 overall — on the market… with an eye toward making one more run at a championship next season.

The reasoning behind trading the pick, according to a source, would be to take the money that would be guaranteed to a first-rounder and spend it elsewhere.

Boston GM Danny Ainge figures to be looking for additional bodies to help fill out the roster for next season. If the Celtics are to make a run at one last title before breaking apart, they need help now. With Rasheed reportedly about to retire, the team will have just five players under contract for next season. The Celtics also hold the 52nd pick.

Ainge has been very adept at finding quality talent in the second round of past drafts (Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Ryan Gomes). Perhaps Ainge is considering dealing down for value, to pile up cheaper help which he believes to be just as useful as any prospect waiting at pick 19.

Miami has plenty of second round picks to offer, holding picks 32, 41, 42 and 48.

Should Pat consider trading picks 32 and 48 to Boston in exchange for 19?

Such a scenario would effectively mean the Heat will have discarded Daequan Cook’s contract for pick 48 and a swap of picks 18 and 19. For those of us that held the Heat’s first round pick in high regard, this certainly makes Riley’s initial trade much easier to stomach.

Your thoughts?

The Miami Heat has traded out of the first round of tomorrow’s draft, sending its No. 18 pick and guard Daequan Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder for the No. 32 overall pick in the second round.

Pat Riley has publicly acknowledged his preference to build through free agency and on the eve of the draft he has held true to his word, opting instead for the added cap space this trade creates.

The move corrects an error made by Riley back in October, when he violated his self-imposed plan to maximize the team’s cap space for the coming off-season and instead chose to pick up Cook’s team option for next season – to the surprise of many, including Daequan. Cook has since regressed, in his fourth and final season under his rookie scale contract.

For Oklahoma City, this deal makes a great deal of sense. The Thunder receives a quality shooter and a top 20 pick for the 32nd pick. And something tells me general manager Sam Presti isn’t done swapping. Now OKC owns three first rounders – Nos. 18, 21 and 26 – and could use them as a springboard to move up a little more.

For Miami, this is a straight salary dump. The Heat not only jettisons the $2,169,857 on Cook’s contract for next season, but also the $1,237,500 salary it would have been obligated to pay the No. 18 selection in Thursday’s draft. In total, the Heat saves $3,407,357. Read more…

According to “league sources,” the Heat is willing to sell the 18th pick in Thursday’s draft in order to clear the cap space.

I have for some time been a proponent of a strategy which calls for the Heat to rid itself of its draft pick in favor of the cap space. In fact, I wrote a concise post describing this very scenario more than a month ago.

But this is the wrong way to approach it. Pat Riley is undoubtedly aware of all the options available to him. I therefore refuse to believe that the suggestion provided above is anything more than a baseless rumor.

Let me explain. Read more…

Navigating the uncertain waters of the NBA Draft has been a special kind of hell for Pat Riley over his years with the Heat organization. Outside of Detroit’s gift to Miami that was Dwyane Wade in 2003, Riley’s draft record reads more like a comedy of errors. The upcoming draft figures to be equally challenging.

In sports, people generally prefer the predictability of the black and white. The obvious. Thursday’s draft figures to be anything but. One expert’s eighth pick is another’s twentieth. And if your team is picking somewhere in the middle of the first round — as the Heat are, at No. 18 — well, it is very difficult to zero in on someone.

What is damaging everyone’s quest to narrow down their searches is the lack of separation beyond the select few at the top. Kentucky’s John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors, and Syracuse’s Wes Johnson figure to go first.

After that, everything is tenuous. And even they don’t seem all that elite.

While there don’t appear to be any surefire superstars in this draft, this appears to be a relatively deep draft class with intriguing prospects expected to be on the board all the way through the first round and perhaps beyond.

So the rumors are starting to soar, with every team outside of the Top 2 (Wizards and Sixers) potentially interested and open to trading up, down or both (with the Pacers and Bulls open to trading out of the draft completely), which means picks 3 through 30 are potentially up for grabs if the team that’s trying to trade up has enough assets (cap space, players, picks, etc.) to get a deal done. Read more…