This is the moment we’ve been so desperately awaiting for three long and painful years.

July 1. The official start to the 2010-11 NBA season.

And so begins the most highly anticipated free agency period in league history. With it comes the potential to reshape the NBA’s power structure for the next half decade.

The free agent class of 2010 is now official. It includes names such as: Amare Stoudemire, Brendan Haywood, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, David Lee, Dirk Nowitzski, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Lebron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rudy Gay, and – for old times sake – Shaquille O’Neal.

Five teams enter the off-season with the necessary cap space to acquire a maximum contract free agent. All five of them have Lebron James at the top of their wish list and will meet with him in or near his home in Ohio, starting this morning.

Two teams figure to have enough for two maximum contract free agents. But only one – the Miami Heat – has a legitimate opportunity to clear the required cap space for three.

Speculation has run rampant. Stepehen A. Smith got our hearts racing on Tuesday when he oh so casually mentioned that Dwyane Wade, Lebron James and Chris Bosh would each be signing free agent contracts to play in what is now Miami-Wade County. Dan Lebetard raised the bar yesterday when he suggested a deal to acquire Chris Bosh had already been structured. All of it sounds so intoxicating. Who doesn’t understand how the mere prospect of the Heat landing the trifecta should overtake the sports world?

Most of the speculation has been categorically denied by players and coaches alike. And for good reason. Teams were unable to officially talk to free agents, other than their own, until this moment.

But for those of you who have been waiting up until the stroke of midnight in the hopes of acquiring some life-altering news, go back to bed. Deals can now be struck, but nothing can be signed – and therefore nothing is official – until July 8. In fact, teams won’t even know exactly how much room they have to work with until the salary cap figure for the coming year is officially released on or about July 7.

So don’t expect the veil of secrecy to be lifted just yet. The last thing a general manager wants to do is broadcast a game plan and then, for whatever reason, have it blow up in his face. Nothing good can come of it. It enrages fans. It alienates potential second options. And it makes them look foolish.

Plan for another agonizing seven days. And hope for fewer.

The trade deadline did little to clarify the picture for where the members of the upcoming prized free agent class might ultimately end up.

The Cavs did a lot to convince Lebron James, the single most coveted free agent to be in recent history, that the present could be bright. Despite an 0-3 record since his arrival, Antawn Jamison was the coveted stretch forward the Cavs believe is the missing piece in its push for an N.B.A. title. But they did less to convince LeBron that his future in Cleveland is equally bright. Jamison turns 34 in June, and has two years and $28 million due to him after this season. With a front line that also includes 37-year old Shaquille O’Neal, the Cavs have offered no assurances that this team can stay at an elite level in the not so distant future.

The Raptors stayed quiet at the trade deadline, which was music to ears of Toronto fans considering most every trade scenario involved Chris Bosh. The team is committed to building a contender around Bosh. But as a middle-of-the-pack eastern conference team operating above the salary cap, GM Brian Colangelo has limited room with which to maneuver. When factoring in that the $30 million additional guaranteed money that Bosh could earn by re-signing with his existing ball-club would be near zero when figuring in the incremental Canadian tax rate, Bosh has plenty to think about.

The Heat also stayed quiet at the trade deadline, staying true to Pat Riley’s plan to maximize its 2010/11 cap space. It was perhaps the best possible, albeit riskiest, alternative. The Heat had its opportunities but was apparently unwilling to part with its most valuable trade asset – Michael Beasley. It need be said that Miami also chose to bypass a third 2010 first-round pick, which would have been the team’s best, at the trade deadline and forgo $7 million in luxury-tax savings by holding onto Dorell Wright and his expiring contract… something I did not agree with on multiple levels (but this is a story for another day). So, little has changed in South Florida. Heat management and fans alike are holding their collective breath, desperately hoping the allure of playing alongside Dwyane Wade in sunny South Florida is enough to convince James or Bosh to sign on the dotted line. If not, Wade – and the Heat’s fortunes – could quickly disappear.

Read more…

Offseason Plan A is for Pat Riley & Co. is quite simple.

1. Sign Lebron James (or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire).
2. Re-sign Dwyane Wade.
3. Sign a $7 million player to boot, or parlay Michael Beasley into a $12 million player.
4. Convince talented players to sign for the league minimum in order to win multiple rings.

But what happens if Plan A falls apart? What happens if Riley’s plan backfires and Lebron, Bosh and Stoudemire commit elsewhere? With the Cavs getting significantly better at the trade deadline, the Knicks creating more than $30 million of cap space and various other teams poised to make a big splash in the offseason, the Heat is holding its collective breath. One needs to at least acknowledge the possibility of getting frozen out. Read more…

We all know the benefit of waiting for free agency: The unquestioned king of the NBA, LeBron James, will be set free for a possible pairing with friend Dwyane Wade. The dream is as alive as it has ever been.

So… what’s the cost?

In short, money.

The salary cap for next season is currently projected at $54.0 million. Utilizing this figure as a benchmark, I will attempt to demonstrate what the costs and the benefits are to the Miami Heat of rebuilding via free agency versus starting the process at the upcoming trade deadline.

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Free Agency: If the Heat were to elect to rebuild through free agency in the summer of 2010, as has been Pat Riley’s plan for the past three seasons, the team would be confined by the limits of the salary cap. That’s $54.0 million, and no more!

None of the exceptions commonly thrown around would be applicable. About the only way for the Heat to exceed this figure would be by signing minimum contract players (teams can sign as many such players as they choose, no matter their salary cap situation).

The Heat currently has Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook under contract for next season, and James Jones has a partial guarantee. That’s $9.0 million already used up. Dwyane Wade and another max contract free agent would be at least another $33.1 million. And the upcoming first round draft pick would eat even more.

Here’s how it might look:

Current Roster Players (Beasley, Cook, and Jones guarantee): $9.0 million
First Round Draft Pick (assumed #15 overall): $1.4 million
Max Contract Players (Wade and James?): $33.1 million
Total: $43.6 million

Unless the salary cap gets an unexpected jolt, the Heat would have just $10.4 million with which to complete its roster, of which no more than $7.6 million could be spent on any one player. That kind of cash might buy a high-quality third starter, with the entire rest of the roster, 7-9 players, relegated to minimum contracts.

That’s a big risk, with the potential for a big return.

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Trade Deadline: If the Heat were to start the rebuilding process at the trade deadline, the team would have no salary cap constraints. They could conceivably spend nearly twice the amount described above, as some teams are doing this season!

Of course, all roster improvements would need to come primarily through trade, and the Heat doesn’t have many trade assets to speak of. But if trade partners could be found, the Heat would be eligible to receive back players with salaries of up 125% + $100,000 of those they trade away. That’s more than $70 million of potential salary to surround Dwyane Wade with.

The Heat would also have access to both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. The mid-level exception would allow the Heat to sign any free agent up to the average salary (~$5.8 million). It may be split and given to multiple players. The bi-annual exception would allow the Heat to sign one additional player to a one or two-year contract starting at $2.1 million.

The Heat would also be allowed to sign its first round draft pick.

We’re talking about more than $100 million to play with.

Of course, this is just a depiction of how much the team could spend. There are many reasons why it would never happen: (i) all trades need two willing parties, (ii) finding takers for every Heat free agent is patently ridiculous, and (iii) we’re talking huge luxury tax considerations.

But it does raise an important question: what’s the right strategy?

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The answer could depend on what’s available next month.

A trade for Amare Stoudemire – pairing him with Wade – would be a solid start. And since Amare is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, it would not risk the free agency alternative. The Heat should undoubtedly focus its efforts to this end.

If more could be layered on top of this combination before the trade deadline (with the prospect of the mid-level, bi-annual and first round draft pick exceptions to come), going all in at the trade deadline could prove to be the better strategy.

If not, LeBron James here we come!