Miami’s future draft selections

July 13th, 2010 6 comments

The Michael Beasley transaction was completed yesterday with a bit of an unexpected turn. Instead of a swap right of future first round positions, Miami will acquire Minnesota’s 2011 and 2014 second-round picks.

The rest of the off-season figures to be low key from a draft pick trading standpoint.

Here’s an overview of the Miami Heat’s future draft pick scenario:

2011: No first round picks; one second round pick (Minnesota)
2012
: One first round pick (swap right to Cleveland); one second round pick (Memphis; top-55 protected)
2013
: No first round pick; one second round pick
2014
: One first round pick; two second round picks (Minnesota)
2015
: No first round pick; one second round pick

Here is a detailed review of the pick flow: Read more…

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Udonis Haslem to re-sign with Heat

July 12th, 2010 11 comments

Per Ira Winderman of the South-Florida Sun Sentinel:

Udonis Haslem will be back with the Miami Heat next season.

The veteran power forward confirmed his return Monday afternoon to the Sun Sentinel in a text message that read: “Turned down full mid level from Dallas and Denver. See u next season.”

Instead of packages from other teams that could have reached $34 million over five seasons, Haslem, 30, is expected to sign off on a four-year Heat package at about a third of that total, although details still are being sorted out.

With the Michael Beasley trade official, it would now appear that the contracts of both Udonis and college roommate Mike Miller can be finalized.

Of note is the final quoted paragraph above, in which it is suggested that Haslem is expected to accept a package worth approximately one-third that of a full Mid-Level Exception deal from an outside suitor, which would pay him $33,437,000 over five seasons. I have previously suggested an alternative which could pay UD as much as $25,172,345 over five seasons (3/4 of such an MLE deal), based on the assumption that Miller’s total contract value was to be reduced to $25 million.

In any case, Miller and Haslem will split 9 million 2010-11 dollars. Each would be eligible to receive 8.0% annual, non-compounding raises for up to five total seasons.

This is not the first time Udonis has provided a hometown discount. Only days into the July 2005 negotiation period with the Heat, Udonis agreed to a mid-level five-year, $33 million contract. After completing the negotiations, Jason Levien, Haslem’s agent at the time, estimated that he left around $10 million on the table in order to meet Haslem’s hometown wishes.

These are rare and altruistic acts for a player in the me-first world of professional sport. Here’s to hoping Haslem gets every dollar possible.

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Quentin Richardson headed to Orlando

July 12th, 2010 No comments

Quentin Richardson has reportedly agreed to a contract with the Orlando Magic, ending his one-year tenure in South Florida.

Per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports:

Quentin Richardson has agreed in principle to a multi-year contract with the Orlando Magic, a league source tells Y! Sports.

Any hopes that Quentin would agree to play with friend Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat for the minimum player salary now appear over. A minimum contract would have paid Quentin $1,352,181. The Heat did make such an offer to Richardson, but the prospect of playing behind Lebron James and newcomer-to-be Mike Miller likely proved too daunting.

Orlando has only the portion of its Mid-Level exception not spent on Chris Duhon and its Bi-Annual Exception to offer Quentin, suggesting the 10-year veteran’s 2010-11 salary will be no greater than $2,415,000.

The Magic already has a guaranteed payroll of $83.3 million, nearly $17 million above the luxury tax threshold for next season, from its ten players currently under contract.

The addition of Richardson could signal the end of J.J. Redick’s tenure in Orlando. Redick signed a vastly inflated 3-year, $20 million offer sheet with the Chicago Bulls on July 9. As Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando has until July 16 to match.

The addition could also signal the end of Matt Barnes’ tenure in Orlando. The Heat has been in discussions with the 7-year veteran in recent days. Barnes does not have the deep range of Quentin; he instead offers superior scoring process inside the arc and enhanced defensive capabilities. Barnes had previously opted out of a $1.6 million guaranteed contract in search of a bigger payday, which he had hoped would come from his incumbent team.

The Magic can offer Barnes as much as $2,080,000. The Heat would likely be able to offer him only a minimum contract, worth $1,146,337.

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Addressing the Issue of Tampering

July 12th, 2010 2 comments

Note: David Stern has dismissed the notion that any tampering has occurred in the recruitment of the Big Three. Said Stern, “The three players are totally, as our system has evolved, within their rights to talk to each other. That is not tampering or collusion that is prohibited. That’s our rule, right now.”

Each of the Big Three is now officially a member of the Miami Heat.

Questions are now beginning to surface about how they got here, and whether or not it would constitute tampering. At issue are supposed meetings, both face-to-face and telephonically, prior to the July 1 start of free agency, to discuss the possibility of playing together.

Tampering is when a player or team directly or indirectly entices, induces or persuades anybody (player, general manager, etc.) who is under contract with another team to negotiate for their services. The NBA takes tampering very seriously and may impose stiff penalties if it is discovered. However, the league will not typically investigate unless the team that for which the player is under contract files tampering charges.

Although each member of the trio was set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and unrestricted free agents have no such restrictions, each was technically still under contract to his existing team until June 30. Read more…

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Lebron’s national ire continues unabated

July 11th, 2010 6 comments

There’s not much to report today, so I’ll instead offer a Sunday evening editorial.

I continue to read stories from across the nation vilifying Lebron James for his decision. While I tend to try to remain largely objective in my writing, I will offer my own retort.

Lebron James has certainly fallen from the greatness upon which he was once bestowed, reduced to the ranks of the most condemned among professional athletes. The events of Thursday will undoubtedly leave him forever mired with infamy.

The method in which he chose to communicate his “Decision” was shockingly cold-blooded and cruel – live and before a televised audience, without so much as a reasonable period of notice, and without a sense of true recognition for what he was doing. In deciding to leave, he had already driven the knife through the collective heart of the city of Cleveland. There was simply no need to twist it from within.

In that respect, Dan Gilbert had it right. This was announced with a several day, narcissistic, self-promotional build-up culminating with a national TV special of his “decision” unlike anything ever “witnessed” in the history of sports, and probably the history of entertainment.

But don’t confuse Gilbert’s anger. His anger is not one of narcissism and self-promotion. James surely did not become a narcissistic self-promoter on Thursday night. It was an attribute that has been ingrained within Gilbert’s former star since an early age. Greatness often breeds arrogance. Read more…

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Heat vision beginning to take shape

July 11th, 2010 11 comments

The vision is beginning to take shape… at least for now.

Pat Riley and Micky Arison met with Derek Fisher for three hours at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in downtown Miami on Saturday and apparently made Fisher a “compelling” offer.

Given the contract situations of Udonis and Mike, the compelling nature of the offer was more likely a vision of Fisher as the starting point guard on a team that also features among the most talented trio the game has ever produced than it was of monetary reward.

At the same time, the coup from Cleveland appears it may continue. Free agent center Zydrunas Ilgauskas is contemplating the option of rejoining Lebron James, his close friend, in Miami. It will certainly be interesting to see if the fanatics of northeastern Ohio deem the 12-year veteran center a Benedict-Arnold-like traitor, or if that title is devoted exclusively to far more talented but far less tenured former members of the organization.

More interesting are the implications the two additions could have on the Heat organization. Riley’s vision appears to change by the day, as new and unexpected possibilities avail themselves. As of now, it seems to follow along the lines of:

Starting Rotation: Derek Fisher, Dywane Wade, Lebron James, Chris Bosh and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

Second Unit: Mario Chalmers, Raja Bell, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony.

The concept of the two units, however, is likely to be a fluid concept. There may never actually be a moment when Dwyane, Lebron and Chris are all resting comfortably together. Perhaps the best part of having three legitimate superstars that can each dominate a basketball game in his own right is that each can take long, rejuvenating rest stops, in rotating fashion, throughout the course of a game. The concept of tearing down a body by playing forty-plus minutes per game may be a thing of the past for each of the three, vastly decreasing the potential for injury and prolonging the career.

When you consider the bench that Pat seems to be putting together, such a rotation system may even be a preferred alternative. The natural concern about such a Big Three trio is the perhaps less than complementary nature of their games. On the other hand, Bell, Miller and Haslem are all knock-down shooters that would complement the games of a superstar wonderfully – with the range of Bell and Miller stretching all the way behind the arc and that of Haslem to the top of the key extended.

The lesson we can take from the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns of yesteryear is that when you surround a playmaker or two with a gaggle of shooters, it makes it exceedingly difficult to defend and nearly impossible to double-team. It creates wide open driving lanes which, if closed, will leave Mike Miller wide open for a three point field goal attempt (where he shot 48% last season) and, if not, will produce a series of thunder-dunk highlight reels the likes of which the NBA has yet to ever see from a single team.

A fully-rested Big Three on the court together in the final minutes of any game that happens to be tight has to be a scary proposition.

The Heat figures not to be just an offensive powerhouse, but a severe match-up problem for just about every team in the league. Consider the flexibility afforded by having a Second Team All Defensive shooting guard, a First Team All Defensive small forward who has the quickness and frame to cover opposing point guards as he does opposing power forwards, and a lanky 6’11″ power forward who, despite the lack of hardware, is among the game’s best statistical rebounders, as well as a strong pick-and-roll defender who moves his feet and alters shots with his length and leaping ability. Read more…

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Dorell Wright signs 3-year, $11 million contract to join the Warriors

July 10th, 2010 3 comments

Dorell Wright’s six-year stay in South Florida has come to an end. Wright signed a three-year contract worth just shy of $11 million to join the Golden State Warriors.

The 6’9″ small forward seemed to be turning a corner last season, averaging 7.1 points and 3.3 rebounds in his 21 minutes per game. It was the best overall season of his career, a season during which he began to show the promise that warranted his No. 19 selection in the 2004 NBA Draft.

But the Heat didn’t have the cap room to offer Dorell anything more than a minimum salary contract.

Here’s wishing all the best to Dorell Wright.

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Vegas, Baby!

July 10th, 2010 No comments

Apparently, the guys and girls with money to burn think the Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA Championship.

According to sports-betting website Bodog.com, the Heat is currently a 7/4 favorite to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Among the teams with anything other than a remote chance, the current odds break down as follows:

Miami Heat: 7/4
Los Angeles Lakers: 11/4
Orlando Magic: 10/1
Boston Celtics: 12/1
Chicago Bulls: 15/1

Could the NBA be shifting to an Eastern-Conference-heavy league?

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Making sense of the Heat’s draft pick situation

July 10th, 2010 6 comments

How highly do you value your first round draft picks?

Not so much if you’re Pat Riley.

And for good reason. Riley has been shockingly unsuccessful with his first round draft selections since having Dwyane Wade fall into his lap with the fifth overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft.

In 2004, with the Heat in desperate need of a point guard, Riley selected Dorell Wright with pick No. 19. Jameer Nelson was the next player selected.

In 2005, with the Heat seeking depth at power forward, Riley selected Wayne Simeon with pick No. 29. David Lee was the next player selected.

In 2006, the Heat had no pick.

In 2007, Riley completed a draft-day swap for Daequan Cook at pick No. 21. Cook never shot better than 38% in any season during his Heat tenure, and was unceremoniously exiled last month, along with a first round draft pick, in favor of the cap space.

In 2008, with the Heat again starving at point guard and the blockbuster free agent class of 2010 flush with power forwards, Riley selected Michael Beasley with the No. 2 overall pick. Beasley is being shipped away for two second round draft picks. Russell Westbrook, selected two picks later, has become a perennial All-Star at point guard.

In 2009, the Heat had no pick. It was sent to Minnesota as part of the regrettable Ricky Davis, Mark Blount trade. The Wolves used the pick to draft Ty Lawson.

Not good. And Pat knows it:

I’ve said in the past, and I believe this, that the way I always want to build a team is through free agency and trades. Probably some of the best players we’ve gotten here were free agents and trades.

Also, through the draft. But the only way you build through the draft is to lose and get three, four, five years of Top 10 lottery picks. Since (losing to get those picks) has never been a philosophy of mine – we’ve only had three lottery picks in 15 years – I always use (draft picks) as an adjunct to help free agency and trades. As chips I would use maybe to acquire players through trade.

Perhaps his philosophy is one formulated by a track record of consistent failure. But he certainly has remained staunchly committed to his word.

Riley has traded away four first round and two second round draft picks in the past few hours, for two players already committed to the Miami Heat.

Read more…

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How he did it

July 10th, 2010 7 comments

For those of us who are wondering how Pat Riley was able to maneuver within the confines of the $58.044 million salary cap in order to secure the services of the Big Three as well as Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, below is a depiction of my current estimates based upon currently available information.

The contracts of Wade, James and Bosh have been executed. The contracts of Haslem and Miller have been described by Riley as “fluid.” He hopes to have them worked out in the coming days. Current estimates for Miller’s contract have been reduced to $25 million over five seasons. Mathematics would indicate that Haslem could receive an equivalent first year salary (though the five-year contract is a guess).

While the Heat has not issued an official statement, it is likely that Joel Anthony’s $1,060,120 qualifying offer will be rescinded and his Bird rights retained at a reduced cap hold of $854,389 when the contracts of Miller and Haslem are executed. Anthony would then be eligible to receive a substantial and cap friendly raise after all remaining cap space is filled.


Lebron and Chris each apparently sacrificed a total of $15,409,478 over the lives of their contracts, while Dwyane gave up $17,944,478. Mike and Udonis undoubtedly sacrificed big dollars as well.


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