Al Capone official mugshot

Happy 28 to all-world Heat guard Dwyane Wade.

You share the same day of birth as Kid Rock (39), Jim Carey (48), Muhammad Ali (68), James Earl Jones (79), and fellow Chicago native and infamous gangster Al Capone – born January 17, 1899, died January 25, 1947.

Wade may well be giving himself his own birthday present. After suffering through the worst start to a season in his 6 year pro career, prompting detractors to question everything from his short-term fitness to his long-term potential, Dwyane has resurrected his season in recent weeks.

Ironically, it has coincided with injury. Make no mistake, Wade is playing through pain. He injured his right wrist when he jammed a basketball against the rim on a missed dunk attempt on a December 11 home game vs. the Mavericks. He then aggravated the wrist of his shooting hand with 1:22 left in the first quarter of Monday’s game at Utah when he lunged for a loose ball and banged his arm.

Since that time, Wade has been playing his best basketball of the season. In the month of January, he’s averaging 30 points (on 51% shooting), 6.9 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game.

Dwyane’s take on the injury:

It’s helped me mechanically. Normally, I’m a line-drive shooter, so I have to put the ball over the rim a little more, because I don’t have the rotation and wrist that I want to. So I’ve had to shoot it a little higher and it’s helped me out a little bit.

Wade went on to comment that his wrist might not have a chance to fully heal until he has a chance to rest it  in the off-season.

Enjoy the day, Dwyane.

In case you missed it (and shame on you if you did): Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas reportedly pulled a gun on teammate Javaris Crittenton during a Christmas eve locker room argument over a gambling debt. On Friday, Arenas pleaded guilty to the felony charge of carrying a pistol without a license in the District of Columbia as part of a plea bargain in D.C. Superior Court.

What does this mean for Gilbert Arenas? It means he may be to go to jail. He will be free until his March 26 sentencing. A jail term of up to 6-12 months would be realistic. Beyond that, it means his life has been turned completely upside down – an image destroyed, a career in jeopardy, and a wallet perhaps $80 million lighter (see below) – because of one bad decision from an otherwise largely untroubled, albeit eccentric, person.

What does this mean for a Heat team in desperate need of a quality point guard?

The one-word answer: nothing.

For Arenas to even be an option for the Heat, several obstacles would need to be overcome. Read more…

Pat Riley and owner Micky Arison are committed to rebuilding the Heat franchise through free agency next offseason. That should give South Floridian conspiracy theorists plenty of time to dream up new rumors of a Wade-James tandem (the two bumped into each other while shopping in the Bay Area as they continue along their West Coast road trips).

So what sort of activity could we see from the Heat before February 18 trade deadline?

Let’s look at the possibilities…

• Chris Bosh. With recent reports that the Heat’s top priority is to sign whichever of LeBron, Bosh or Stoudemire is available first, you’d have to believe the Heat would consider any trade deadline possibilities involving Bosh. The problem here is that the only real non-Wade trade chip the Heat has is Michael Beasley, and the Raptors have no interest. Several teams have a genuine interest in Bosh and much more valuable trade pieces to get a deal done. The Lakers have apparently offered up their budding young center Andrew Bynum to no avail. Bosh is unlikely to go anywhere, least of all Miami.

• Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire’s name was thrown around a lot in trade rumors at the start of the season. After spending 22 hours a day for 10 straight days lying on his chest and staring down at the floor as part of his effort to rehabilitate his detached retina, there were plenty of reasons to doubt he’d ever again be the impact player of seasons past. But, sure enough, he is now beginning to play back into All-Star form. His pick-and-roll teammate and team leader, Steve Nash, has just signed an extension that will keep him a Sun through the 2012-13 season… and the Suns are playing very well.  But he is as extreme an injury risk as there comes, and the Suns remain reluctant to throw the kind of money at him that he wants. He could surely be had for the right price, but don’t bet on the Heat having the foresight to get it done.

• Dorell Wright. Dorell Wright is finally healthy in this his 6th NBA season, and his contributions on the court are beginning to reflect his talent. The problem here is mathematics. The simple fact is the Heat are $2.8 million over the luxury tax threshold and Dorell has a $2.9 million salary. Avoiding the luxury tax means big-time savings for Micky Arison. In addition to the 2.8 million luxury tax dollars Arison would have to fork over if the team were over the cap and the $1.2 million left to be paid on Dorell’s contract, he would also sacrifice a luxury tax distribution check issued to teams under the tax line (estimated to be $3.7 million). That $7.7 million potential savings may cause Arison to look the other way when it comes to Dorell’s resurgent on court performance… Among the teams that could accommodate such a trade without returning back salary are the LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. The Grizzlies are rumored to have an interest. All it should take is a first round draft pick. It’s not about this season for the Heat. It’s all about the next. A first round draft pick and $7.7 million are simply too much to pass up for a few extra games of Dorell Wright, who will become a free agent in the offseason regardless.

We all know the benefit of waiting for free agency: The unquestioned king of the NBA, LeBron James, will be set free for a possible pairing with friend Dwyane Wade. The dream is as alive as it has ever been.

So… what’s the cost?

In short, money.

The salary cap for next season is currently projected at $54.0 million. Utilizing this figure as a benchmark, I will attempt to demonstrate what the costs and the benefits are to the Miami Heat of rebuilding via free agency versus starting the process at the upcoming trade deadline.

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Free Agency: If the Heat were to elect to rebuild through free agency in the summer of 2010, as has been Pat Riley’s plan for the past three seasons, the team would be confined by the limits of the salary cap. That’s $54.0 million, and no more!

None of the exceptions commonly thrown around would be applicable. About the only way for the Heat to exceed this figure would be by signing minimum contract players (teams can sign as many such players as they choose, no matter their salary cap situation).

The Heat currently has Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook under contract for next season, and James Jones has a partial guarantee. That’s $9.0 million already used up. Dwyane Wade and another max contract free agent would be at least another $33.1 million. And the upcoming first round draft pick would eat even more.

Here’s how it might look:

Current Roster Players (Beasley, Cook, and Jones guarantee): $9.0 million
First Round Draft Pick (assumed #15 overall): $1.4 million
Max Contract Players (Wade and James?): $33.1 million
Total: $43.6 million

Unless the salary cap gets an unexpected jolt, the Heat would have just $10.4 million with which to complete its roster, of which no more than $7.6 million could be spent on any one player. That kind of cash might buy a high-quality third starter, with the entire rest of the roster, 7-9 players, relegated to minimum contracts.

That’s a big risk, with the potential for a big return.

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Trade Deadline: If the Heat were to start the rebuilding process at the trade deadline, the team would have no salary cap constraints. They could conceivably spend nearly twice the amount described above, as some teams are doing this season!

Of course, all roster improvements would need to come primarily through trade, and the Heat doesn’t have many trade assets to speak of. But if trade partners could be found, the Heat would be eligible to receive back players with salaries of up 125% + $100,000 of those they trade away. That’s more than $70 million of potential salary to surround Dwyane Wade with.

The Heat would also have access to both the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions. The mid-level exception would allow the Heat to sign any free agent up to the average salary (~$5.8 million). It may be split and given to multiple players. The bi-annual exception would allow the Heat to sign one additional player to a one or two-year contract starting at $2.1 million.

The Heat would also be allowed to sign its first round draft pick.

We’re talking about more than $100 million to play with.

Of course, this is just a depiction of how much the team could spend. There are many reasons why it would never happen: (i) all trades need two willing parties, (ii) finding takers for every Heat free agent is patently ridiculous, and (iii) we’re talking huge luxury tax considerations.

But it does raise an important question: what’s the right strategy?

***

The answer could depend on what’s available next month.

A trade for Amare Stoudemire – pairing him with Wade – would be a solid start. And since Amare is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, it would not risk the free agency alternative. The Heat should undoubtedly focus its efforts to this end.

If more could be layered on top of this combination before the trade deadline (with the prospect of the mid-level, bi-annual and first round draft pick exceptions to come), going all in at the trade deadline could prove to be the better strategy.

If not, LeBron James here we come!