Together forever? What could have been.

Everybody always assumes that Riley & Co. know more than the casual fan. Everyone always assumes they have access to inside information that the casual fan does not. I wish everybody was right.

Commissioner David Stern changed the landscape of the free-agent market on Friday. During the N.B.A. board of governors session in New York, he revealed that the league’s projection for the 2010/11 salary cap is now $56.1 million. This cap figure is interesting, in that it shows us just how costly Riley & Co.’s mistakes have been — mistakes this casual fan would certainly never have made.

At the beginning of the season I questioned Pat Riley’s decision to pick up Daequan Cook’s option for 2010/11. At the time, I didn’t have the benefit of watching Cook perform (or should I say, ride the pine). I simply said to myself that when a team is trying desperately to preserve cap space, it should under no circumstances surrender $2.2 million to a marginal backup. Of course, Cook has since proven out to be nothing more than what will be a massively-overpriced minimum contract player.

Then at the trade deadline, I vehemently protested Micky Arison’s decision not to offer Michael Beasley, both projected 2010 first round draft picks (the team’s own and that from the Raptors), and anything else not named Dwyane Wade in a trade for Amare Stoudemire. One would naturally need to ask whether Phoenix brass would have pulled the trigger on such a trade. I should remind you they almost pulled the trigger on J.J. Hickson and the 30th overall pick in the draft. Do you believe they would not have flinched at the prospect of Beasley and both of the projected 16th and 18th picks in first round of the upcoming draft? Well, since that time Stoudemire is playing the best basketball of his spectacular career. Michael Beasley, on the other hand, has played so poorly it remains to be seen whether he can be given away for free (with the $5 million salary he carries into next season). And the once highly valued first round draft pick received from the Raptors is no longer, and the future first round pick it is replaced with is nearly worthless in a trade today.

What does it all mean? These two moves are the only thing preventing the Miami Heat from possessing the required cap space to pursue three max contract free agents. Had a casual basketball fan such as myself been the GM of the Miami Heat over the past 12 months, the franchise that calls South Florida home would have Bird rights on both Dwyane Wade and Amare Stoudemire… and enough cap space to pursue Lebron James.

Would such a trio be likely? I will reiterate the thoughts I’ve offered since October. It’s something of a tough sell to convince any two max contract free agents to come together. Most such players need their independence. They want their personal glory. They want to be the kings of their castles. But three such players on the same team, in my humble opinion, is a much easier sell. Why? Yes, they could make the same max money elsewhere. But they almost certainly win multiple championships. They become the unquestioned team of this decade. They become a dynasty, the likes of the Celtics and Lakers of old. Their legacy survives long after their playing shoes are tossed aside. Not to mention the South Florida weather. At least that’s the way I would pitch it. Would you be enticed?

Somebody please explain to me why the Miami Heat and coach Erik Spoelstra chose to win its season finale against the New Jersey Nets. Perhaps I am simply not as smart as I thought I was.

In my crazy mind, the Bucks did us a huge favor by beating the Celtics. The victory meant the Heat could quite literally choose its desired playoff match-up. By intentionally losing its season finale, the Heat could fall to sixth in the Eastern Conference and secure a first round playoff match-up against an Atlanta Hawks team it holds a 3-1 record against on the season. Better still, it would allow for a potential second round match-up against an Orlando Magic team it played to a 2-2 push.

By taking the win against the league’s worst team, the Heat has taken over the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. That means a first round match-up against the fourth-seeded Boston Celtics. The Heat played the Celtics to an 0-3 record on the season. The Heat, in fact, is 1-11 in its last 12 games against Boston, with its only win coming when the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. It also means that if the Heat miraculously took out the Celtics, the Cleveland Cavaliers would be waiting in the wings. The Heat are the proud owners of exactly zero wins against the Cavs.

I thought coach Spoelstra was a numbers coach. The numbers are about as obvious as could possibly be expected.

It’s difficult to understand why the Heat chose not to give away the game. Some might say it was so the team can enter the playoffs on a role. But the team’s top three players all sat the game out. Can you really be on a role when Yakhouba Diawara, who will be ineligible to play during the playoffs, hits the game’s biggest shot? Others might say tanking a game is bad karma. I would submit that any coach that believes in karma, fairies, angels or demons should not be a coach in the NBA. Coaches should believe in their players, and they should believe in match-ups. By all accounts, the Atlanta Hawks were a better match-up. The Heat had complete control over its fate, and chose the match-up that will in all likelihood end its season. Had it chose otherwise, I would imagine Vegas odds-makers would have had a Hawks/Heat series at a virtual toss up.

Somebody please explain.

Micheal Beasley!

Mired in the worst slump of his career, which had lovers and doubters alike questioning his place in this league, Beasley delivered his best ever fourth quarter performance against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night. The Heat rode his hot hand — and perhaps more importantly his stellar defense — to a 100-94 victory over its new arch rival in the Southeast division.

While Wade paced the Heat with 38 points, Beasley’s 22 came when the team needed it most. The Heat were down by a point with less than three minutes to play when Beasley entered the contest for the final time. This time he never left. Beasley went off on Atlanta with the game in the balance, with two late steals, an alley-oop dunk, a layup and a 3-pointer. In all, he scored 14 fourth-quarter points, including seven in the final two minutes.

The moment became Beasley’s in part because center Jermaine O’Neal was lost for the night in the second quarter due to an ailing left knee. Still, the extended playing time was surprising considering the overheard halftime conversation between the second year forward and head coach Erik Spoelstra.

Attached is a rare glimpse into an actual conversation picked up on a private video feed:

Damn it!

Every time I want to write off the Heat for the season, they give a performance like this. Where do they come from? It’s amazing. How can a team lose three disgusting games to the Milwaukee Bucks and then turn around and beat the league’s best team… twice? Ok, not twice. But an off-balance 25-foot bank shot three-point heave away from twice…

Games like this string you along. They give you hope. They make you remember that despite all the torture, the Heat was just one Game 7 victory away from reaching the second round of the playoffs last season. They make you think of all the ways the Heat are better prepared this season. They make you think through all of the “what if” scenarios.

What if the role players can consistently give this type of effort? What if Michael Beasley ever reaches his true potential? What if the Heat had instead drafted Russell Westbrook? What would this team look like when Chris Bosh came knocking?

I’ll tell you what’s nice about this victory. It’s nice to be able to laugh in the face of Charles Barkley. Sir Charles remarked before the game that the difference between the Heat and Lakers is that if Kobe plays well the Lakers are virtually guaranteed a victory whereas if Dwyane plays well the Heat can still get blown out by double digits on any given night.

I can criticize my general manager for making stupid player personnel decisions. I can criticize my head coach for his stupid rotations and lack of understanding. And I can criticize my players for being utterly useless. But damn it if I’m going to let some old, retired guy make comments about a situation he doesn’t understand, even if he is a Hall of Famer. Who cares if he’s right? This is my city. This is my team.

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A lot of columnists have been focusing on all the roster charges and holds that reduce the maximum available cap space for teams like the Heat, which will have significant room to work with to sign free agents in the offseason. However, many of these columnists – even the most experienced cap gurus – have been making big mistakes in their analyses.

When a team elects to use its cap space in the offseason, it has four primary non-cash charges to worry about: cap holds, exceptions, roster charges for carrying fewer than 12 players, and the scale amount for unsigned first round draft picks:

1. Cap Holds. Most of us understand by now, assuming you’ve been reading my posts, that when players become free agents they have cap holds attached to them which count against their current team’s cap. To release such cap holds and free up the cap space, a team only has to renounce its free agents. That’s easy enough to do. Therefore, cap holds do not reduce the calculation of maximum available cap space. (The one exception, of course, is if the team intends to re-sign one of its free agents – at which point the lesser of (i) the cap hold or (ii) the amount for which the team intends to re-sign him should be incorporated.)

2. Exceptions. If a team ever falls below the salary cap, it automatically loses any of its unutilized Mid-Level, Bi-Annual, Disabled Player and Trade Exceptions. Exceptions are meant as a means for teams to operate above the cap; if a team is below the cap, they wouldn’t be applicable. Once a team loses its exceptions, it can never get them back – even if the team eventually gets above the salary cap. Therefore, exceptions do not reduce the calculation of maximum available cap space.

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Did you like what you saw from Warriors point guard C.J. Watson last night?

Well, he’ll be a free agent this offseason.

Watson has had an interesting road. Despite an excellent college career at Tennessee, Watson went undrafted in 2006 N.B.A. draft. He played professionally in Europe for a season before heading back over to this side of the pond. He then battled his way up through the D-League ranks as a rookie, but last season left no doubt that he’s an N.B.A. caliber guard. He finished up the season strong, with seven straight double-figure outings — including a 38-point explosion that helped the Warriors stun Utah on the road.

Still just 25 years old, Watson plays about 27 minutes per game this season for the guard-heavy Warriors and is averaging 10.1 points, 2.6 assists, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. He’s been on a tear of late to help fill the void of Monta Ellis’ absence. He dropped a career-high 40 to lead the Warriors to a 130-98 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. He’s scored 20 or more points in five of his last 7 games. Against the Heat last night, he dropped in 20 points (9-15 from the floor) to go along with 6 steals.

Watson is an excellent outside shooter off the catch or on the dribble. He’s more of a catch-and-shoot, off-the-ball point guard than a pure playmaker. As such, his assist totals are unspectacular. But his ability to put the ball in the basket is no longer in doubt.

Watson signed Golden State’s qualifying offer for one year, $1.03 million even though he had better possibilities, because he was worried that Warriors would match a multiyear offer sheet. Free agents with three or fewer years of experience are deemed “restricted,” in that their current teams are able to match any outside offers. He previously rejected a three-year contract from the Warriors worth $5.4 million. Apparently, Watson didn’t want to commit to three years with the Warriors, in large part because they have so many guards currently under contract.

Taking the one-year qualifying offer was risky, however. For one, Watson left more than $4 million on the table, a gutsy move for someone who was playing in the D-League less than two years ago. In addition, when Watson’s contract expires at the end of season, he’ll be in the exact same spot he was this past summer: a restricted free agent.

The risk appears to have paid off. C.J. will certainly improve upon his current $1.03 million salary next season. It does appear the Heat would have enough cap room to sign both Watson and a max contract free agent if it so chooses.

Is he the right choice?

Remember Marcus Thornton? He was the Heat’s selection with the 43rd pick in the 2009 N.B.A. draft. Pat Riley traded him to the Hornets in exchange for two future second round picks that probably won’t ever wear a Heat uniform.

As it turns out, Thornton is proving to be in just his first year what Daequan Cook has failed to provide in his third (and Michael Beasley in his second, for that matter) – a reliable and explosive scorer to propel the second unit.

All the adjectives are working for Marcus. It looks so easy, so effortless, what Thornton can do when he has the basketball in his hands and scoring on his mind. That was evident at LSU, where he was the Southeastern Conference Player of the Year as a senior when he scored in buckets and often took over games for the Tigers. Apparently, it wasn’t as evident to N.B.A. teams. Otherwise he wouldn’t have slipped all the way down to No. 43.

Now he’s proving them wrong. Against the big boys in the world’s toughest league, Thornton is simply doing what he has always done. Get the ball. Find the basket. Put the ball in the basket. Read more…

The Miami Heat now finds itself outside of the playoff picture looking in for the first time in the last two years. With Sunday’s loss to the Magic, the Heat fell into ninth place in the Eastern Conference, behind the idle Charlotte Bobcats and out of a playoff seed. Heat loyalists are, quite naturally, on edge.

You’d be right to be scared about Michael Beasley’s development. He is still just 21 years old, but appears to be regressing in his sophomore season – while fellow draftees Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez are flourishing in positions of desperate need.

You’d be right to be scared about Dwyane Wade’s future in a Heat uniform. Even the addition of a second max contract player and two low first round draft picks may not be enough to make the Heat a contender in the East. Michael Beasley’s uneven play could ultimately be a deciding factor, and Chicago seems poised to make a strong push.

If you’re scared about missing the playoffs, that’s a bit premature. The Heat has one of the easiest schedules to close out the season in all of basketball. The combined winning percentage of Heat opponents from here on out is 42.7%. The Heat plays 8 games against teams with a record of 50.0% or better vs. 15 with a record of below that mark. If Miami just takes care of business against the league’s dregs, it’s almost certainly a playoff team. Circle March 31 on your calendar. If we can make it to April in good shape, the last eight games are a barrel of laughs: Detroit, Indiana, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Detroit, New York, Philadelphia and New Jersey. An 8-0 finish should give the Heat some (false?) confidence heading into the post-season.

Competing with Miami for the final four playoff positions are Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee and Charlotte. If the performances of each of these teams to close out the season are projected out by assuming they each beat the teams that currently have an inferior record and lose to the teams that currently have a superior record, the standings in the East would end as follows:

That would give the Heat a first-round match-up against the Cleveland Cavaliers. And, in all likelihood, a first-round exit.

The NBA, unlike the NFL and NHL, has a “soft” salary cap. The basic rule of the NBA’s salary cap is that a team can’t sign a player (or make a trade) that leaves the team’s team salary above the cap, unless the team is using an exception.

In a system with a soft cap, exceptions are the mechanisms that allow teams to function while above the cap. Some exceptions are available only for making trades while other exceptions are available for signing players.

The most commonly used, and most widely known, exception is the Larry Bird exception. This exception allows teams to exceed the cap in order to re-sign their own free agents, up to the player’s maximum salary. Teams are said to have “Bird rights” to players who qualify.

LARRY BIRD EXCEPTION — To be qualified for this exception, a player must play for three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can qualify by playing under three consecutive one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any equivalent combination. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Larry Bird exception to re-sign him. These contracts can be up to six years in length, with raises up to 10.5% of the salary in the first season of the contract.  Read more…

Ok, I’ve given you a look at what the Heat could look like if it hung on to its draft picks. Now the more interesting – and highly controversial – “Undrafted Team.”

This is what the Heat roster could look like if it drafted wisely with each and every pick. The assumptions that underlie this analysis are incredibly ridiculous; this team simply wouldn’t have been possible. But it is fun, and fair, to view each pick individually to see how masterful (or pathetic) Pat Riley truly has been.

Since the 1999 NBA draft, the Heat has had a total of 19 selections, 7 first round and 12 second round picks. Here’s what they chose, and the other main options that were available.

Making selections is no easy task, even in retrospect. One needs to consider how each selection affects the rest of his roster. I’ve painstakingly analyzed all scenarios to put forth what I believe is the best possible hypothetical roster. It’s a star-studded lineup through and through.

I went with a league minimum 13-player roster due to salary reasons, but otherwise damn the costs. If Micky Arison can’t make piles of money with this lineup, then I’m moving to Oklahoma.

The costs aren’t absurd anyway. There are currently four N.B.A. teams with a higher payroll.

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