Did you watch tonight’s Hawks/Bucks game? Milwaukee is now up 3-2 in their first round series, with a home game in a couple of days. Atlanta has already lost 18 of their last 19 road playoff games dating back to 1997, including losses in both road games in this series.

Let’s face reality. If the Heat were playing the Hawks, Miami would have already wrapped up the series. It’s hard to accept, and impossible to forgive Riley/Spoelstra for not intentionally throwing the Nets game.

Micky Arison should be outraged. He probably loses somewhere around $7 million because of that decision. Add to that Riley’s decision to waste $1.5 million on Patrick Beverly and his $7 million decision not to get under the luxury tax. That’s $15.5 million out the window because of mis-management. $15.5 million!

It gets worse. Riley’s decisions to offer Daequan Cook a contract and to offer Joel Anthony a player option for next season are the only things standing in the way of the Heat not having a legitimate shot at three max contract free agents. And this ignore Riley’s decision to sign James Jones, who he deemed a “perfect fit,” to that horrific contract.

This is the man you trust and believe in. How can I, a blogger that has zero readership, know more? How is that possible? It’s not like I am saying all these things in retrospect. I was livid as each and every one of these decisions was made.

I could have saved Micky Arison $16 million this season, while at the same time creating enough cap space for three max contract free agents in the offseason. Someone please tell me I’m missing something. Tell me I’m oversimplifying. Because I just don’t see it.

For all of you who believe I have been overcritical in my evaluation of Michael Beasley or disagree with my assessment that he has become a sort of cancer for the Heat organization that should be traded in favor of the cap space, here is what I consider to be a well written article from a Palm Beach Post staff writer which eloquently articulates my sentiments.

It’s time to ignore when he was drafted and instead focus on what’s best for the franchise. I think you’ll find you’d also be doing what’s best for him.

I’ve heard impossible trade scenarios capitalizing on James Jones’ buyout from just about everywhere, including Ira Winderman’s blog from today. Allow me to clear up any confusion.

James Jones’ contract becomes fully guaranteed for all of his three remaining seasons on June 30, 2010. Therefore, any trade scenario which aims to capitalize on his buyout must be achieved before June 30 or, in other words, this salary cap year.

Jones’ contract is further complicated by a 15% trade bonus, which would provide him an additional $2.2 million in up front cash if he were to be traded (the Heat could choose to pay this bonus to any team willing to swallow his contract). The trade bonus would also increase Jones’ salary for trade purposes from the current $4.3 million to $5.8 million.

There is not a single team in the N.B.A. with enough cap space to swallow a $5.8 million salary. The only way he could be traded is by utilizing the traded player exception. League rules prevent the Heat from trading Jones before June 30 in return for a player whose contract is set to expire. So unless the Heat wants to take on guaranteed 2010/11 salary in return for Jones (and, at that, likely even more salary than Jones’ $1.9 million buyout), the team that takes Jones on needs to have a large enough trade exception.

The only teams in the N.B.A. with a trade exception large enough to accommodate Jones’ salary are the Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards. So unless you feel one of these teams is going to want to take on Jones’ buyout in return for absolutely nothing other than a potential draft pick or two, Jones isn’t going anywhere before year end. And unless Pat Riley chooses to guarantee Jones’ full 3 years, $15 million remaining on his contract, Jones isn’t going anywhere… period.

The inevitable truth is that James Jones will be waived by the Heat on June 30. Once he is waived, he will cost $1.9 million, $2.0 million and $2.1 million against the Heat’s cap over the next three seasons… and there’s nothing Pat Riley can do about it.

When Jones was signed in July 2008, the partial guarantee was dubbed as one which ensures that Miami could still have maximum spending capability during the free agent summer of 2010. Riley went on to call Jones “a perfect fit.” Less than two years later, it is plainly obvious to see just how wrong Pat Riley was.

Now that the Miami Heat is eliminated from the playoffs, the 2010/11 rebuilding plan is officially underway.

The Heat is now allowed to pursue trades with other teams not currently in the playoffs. Off limits are any players who will become free agents or who have team or player options. That means no Bosh discussions just yet. But it does mean the Heat can start to desperately pursue suitors to take over the contracts of James Jones and Daequan Cook, and perhaps Michael Beasley.

The only team which can create cap space for trades is Oklahoma City. The Thunder could create as much as $2.4 million of cap space before the current season officially ends on June 30. Therefore, if the Heat aims to send out contracts without taking on contracts in return, it will need to find teams with large enough traded player exceptions to accommodate such trades.

The next big dates to keep in mind:

June 24 – 2010 NBA draft
June 25 — Last day for Joel Anthony to exercise his player option
June 30 — Last day for the Heat to exercise its team option on Mario Chalmers
June 30 — Last day for the Heat to waive James Jones, or his contract becomes guaranteed
June 30 — Official end of the 2009/10 regular season
July 1 — Free agency begins for all teams
July 8 — Free agent contracts can be signed

The Heat currently has $14,283,801 in salary commitments on its roster for next season. That means, assuming a $56,100,000 salary cap, it will have $41,816,199 of cap space.

For those of you wondering how the Heat could create even more room this offseason, here’s a brief overview of everything Miami can do.

• Michael Beasley has a $4,962,240 guaranteed salary. I would try to use him as part of a sign-and-trade for a max contract free agent if there was such an appetite for his services. By the way, if it chooses to keep him, the Heat would need to decide by October 31 whether it wants to pick up his option for the 2011/12 season. He is slated to make $6,262,347. If Miami doesn’t pick up the option, he becomes unrestricted.

• James Jones has a $4,650,000 contract which contains a partial guarantee of $1,856,000. Miami must waive him by June 30, 2010. If it doesn’t, JJ’s contract becomes fully guaranteed for the next three years. Any trade that capitalizes on his partial guarantee would therefore need to occur this salary cap year. Extraordinarily unlikely. I would try like hell, but ultimately waive him in favor of the additional $2,794,000 in cap space.

• Daequan Cook has a guaranteed $2,169,857 contract. There’s nothing the Heat can do but trade it. Cook is not a very tradable asset, as you might imagine. If need be, I would offer up the maximum $3 million in cash and a second round pick to any team willing to take him on.

• Joel Anthony has an $885,120 player option. The Heat can’t do anything about this but sit back and wait. If Joel chooses to decline it, Miami recovers the cap space. I believe he will decline.

• Mario Chalmers has an $854,389 team option. The Heat can choose not to pick it up if it’d rather have the cap space. Remember, this is a minimum contract. Miami can always re-sign him after all its cap space is used up. The team must decide by June 30. Given the need at point and his minimal salary, I would pick up the option.

• Kenny Hasbrouck is subject to a team option on his $762,195 contract. The Heat can decline the option to recover the cap space. With off-court legal issues coming from such a marginal player, I would decline.

Some of you may be wondering about exceptions as a way to create more room. As the Heat plans to use cap space to sign free agents, exceptions will not apply.

That’s it.

Well isn’t that just kick you in the crotch, spit on your neck fantastic…

The Atlanta Hawks have dropped yet another road game. The Bucks, without the services of their best player, have evened up the series a 2-2. Andrew Bogut, you will recall, went down on a late season dunk attempt that ended in a gruesome crash down to the floor and led to a host of arm injuries.

The Miami Heat, meanwhile, is down 3-1 in its series against the Boston Celtics, despite playing some pretty good basketball. Let’s not forget that Miami let a 14-point mid-third quarter lead slip away its first contest. A heart-breaking buzzer-beating Paul Pierce jumper was the difference in another.

It’s hard not to imagine the Heat would be up 3-1 right now in a hypothetical Heat/Hawks series right now.

It’s even more painful to think we’d have the Orlando Magic in a potential second round match-up. If you haven’t been watching, Dwight Howard is being exposed. The man is picking up fouls at a faster rate than even Michael Beasley. In his first round series, he committed 22 fouls in four games, fouling out of two. He saw the floor for an average of just 26.5 minutes per contest. He made just 13 of his 35 free throws. He grabbed fewer than 10 rebounds and scored less than 10 points per outing, shooting less than 50% from the field. In a word, he’s been “atrocious.” That’s been a winning formula for the Heat against the Magic in the past.

Oh well.

As if this week’s occurrences weren’t already enough to infuriate us Heat fans, today’s Hawks/Bucks game should set us all over the edge.

Remember how stress-free it was to sit in those nicely cushioned chairs in that coolly air-conditioned Miami arena, popping a hot dog with sauerkraut and just a hint of mustard into your mouth, knowing the game you’ve come to watch is already well in-hand just a few minutes in. You should. It was just twelve short months ago. Two South Florida-based Heat/Hawks games started; two Heat/Hawks games ended with superstar Dwyane Wade resting idly on the bench with a smile running ear to ear.

Ah, the beauty of an easy home win.That’s what the undermanned Bucks are experiencing right this very moment. In just one stress free minute, Milwaukee will close out a 20-or-so point victory against a Hawks team that is all but a certain victory in their road games. In their last three postseasons, Atlanta has just one road victory, with an average margin of loss exceeding three touchdowns. The Hawks are just 1-14 in their last 15 road playoff games, dating back to May 1997.

The Hawks did steal a road victory in Game 4 in Miami last season. Remember, though, that this was a game in which Dwyane Wade played injured. Wade was wincing from back spasms that started at the morning shootaround, flared in the first quarter and continued from there. The pain was so great, he could barely run down the court. He managed just 9-22 shooting. But with Wade healthy for the other two home games, the Heat’s average margin of victory was a whopping four touchdowns.

When you know you’re going to win easily on your home floor, it makes it easy to think about stealing one road win in four attempts.

As the Heat sits on the brink of elimination against a team it has not beaten in any of its six outings this season, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra must be thinking to himself just how massive a mistake he made.

Here’s a question for you. How many million dollars is Jermaine O’Neal costing himself with his postseason performance?

I’ll take a stab. I’ll boldly claim it to be somewhere approaching 8 figures. Yes, $10 million.

There were some predicting O’Neal, with his strong and unexpected regular season performance, could garner a multi-season contract with a starting salary of approximately $10 million. Seeing him play on a day-to-day basis, I always felt that was crazy. But he did shoot a career best 53% from the floor, and remains a significant interior shot blocking presence.

But the real Jermaine O’Neal has finally stood up. O’Neal’s playoff stat line is nothing short of ridiculous. In games 1, 2 and 3 he shot 3-14, 1-10 and 1-7 from the floor, respectively. That’s a mind-boggling 16%. Yes, he was matched up against perhaps the Eastern Conference’s second best low post defender. But 16%? His shooting has been awful. His rebounding not much better. And the sad truth is that he is an overrated defender. In my humble opinion, I see Jermaine as a strong shot-blocking help defender. But in one-on-one defense, he lacks the strength or desire to keep his man in front of him. He plainly gets dominated.

In the offseason, Jermaine will be looking for a championship contender, some place where he can sign a four or five-year-deal where he can finish out his career. “I’m looking forward to it because basically it’s the stretch run for me,” O’Neal was quoted as saying a few weeks back. “I don’t plan on playing past the next four or five years. I definitely want to make a decision and put myself in the best position to compete for a championship.”

Now hitting the ripe age of 31 years old, O’Neal will get his first chance at becoming a free agent during his career. Can you see anyone handing him a four year contract?

There are data points working in his favor. Marcus Camby just got upwards of $21 million (with $5 more in incentives) from Portland at 35 years of age. And there are several N.B.A. clubs that can use an imposing (is that what he is?) big man with touch around the basket. I could see one stretching. But here’s how his last three performances have hurt him:

• I never saw any franchise willing to offer him his desired four to five year contract. Three, however, was a possibility. That’s now two.
• I never quite saw $10 million per season in his future, but I could see a stretch of somewhere between $7 million and $8 million guaranteed. Now you can knock that down to the MLE.

I am currently projecting an MLE of approximately $5.8 million. Could that be his number? A two-year, $12 million contract sounds about right to me. Could he make more? Sure. But if it were up to me, I would certainly make anything above that incentive-laden. What type of incentives? Well, total games played, total rebounds per game and maybe even total points per game sounds about right.

So how did I get to my $10 million number?

The original contract: $7.5 million per season for three seasons, or $22.5 million.

The new contract: $6 million per season for two seasons, or $12 million.

Of course, this is purely ridiculous speculation. And now that his $126 million contract has come to an end, does it really matter?

Your thoughts?

Let’s discuss Michael Beasley for a moment.

For whatever reason, he’s not living up to expectations. The sad truth is that he was an unwise draft selection for the Miami Heat. And it’s a shame when you consider how much talent was available to the Heat at positions of great need.

Some of us blame Pat Riley for drafting him, some of us blame Erik Spoelstra for the way in which he has been handled, some of us blame Dywane Wade for his lack of mentorship, and still others put the blame squarely on Michael’s shoulders.

At this point, it doesn’t matter who’s at fault. The only thing that matters is putting championship-caliber pieces around Dwyane Wade in the offseason.

Michael Beasley should not be one of those pieces. At this point, a separation is as good for Michael as it is for Miami. And it’s coming. It’s inevitable. As soon as the Heat successfully inks a Bosh or Stoudemire or Boozer, Michael becomes expendable and clearing his cap charge more valuable. So the question is not what the Heat should do with him, it’s what it can expect in return for him.

Trading Beasley will not be easy. Consider the perception of him from those outside of South Florida. Off the court, he has had a worrisome and checkered past. On the court, he appears very unpolished and, even worse, all-too-often completely lost.

All indications thus far seem to suggest interest in the troubled power forward from around the league is waning. During trade deadline negotiations, several sources indicated the Phoenix Suns did not have much interest in Beasley, preferring potential acquisitions of backups Tyrus Thomas or J.J. Hickson instead.

His production since that time certainly hasn’t helped. Since the February 18 trade deadline, Michael is averaging a mere 13.1 points, on 42.0% shooting, and 5.6 rebounds per game. In the playoffs, his production has been worse. Last night was telling. He was playing in front of a national audience. The entire country was watching. He was matched up against the undersized and not so fleet-of-foot Celtics backup power forward Glenn Davis, a great match-up for the swift and agile Beasley in his bid for redemption. And he came out and laid an egg.

I’ve heard people throwing around Beasley trade proposals involving anyone from Tyreke Evans to Stephen Curry to Darren Collison to Chris Bosh, etc. etc. Such proposals — at least in and of themselves — would seem ludicrous at this point. I would suggest that we all temper our expectations just a bit. Right now, I’m worried about Miami’s ability to move him — and his $5 million expiring contract — at all…

Will the Heat have enough dollars to build a contender?

Commissioner David Stern changed the landscape of the free agent market on Friday. During the N.B.A. board of governors session in New York, he revealed that the league’s projection for the 2010/11 salary cap is now $56.1 million — a substantial increase from its earlier projections of as low as $50.4 million.

This is certainly a positive development for a Heat team looking to retool. Let’s take a look at exactly what it means.

Salary Commitments. The Heat have the following players under contract next season:

Michael Beasley: $4,962,640

Daequan Cook: $2,169,857

Joel Anthony: $885,120

Including James Jones’ $1,856,000 buyout, that means total salary commitments of $9,873,217.

N.B.A. Draft. Miami carries the 18th overall pick in the first round of the 2010 N.B.A. draft, held on June 24th. No matter which player is ultimately selected, if the Heat chooses to keep him, he will carry with him a cap hold of $1,237,500 (and a salary of up to $1,485,000 when he is eventually signed, which will be after the Heat has rounded out its roster).

Free Agency. Miami will then enter the free agency period, starting July 8th, with the clear goal of re-signing Wade and bringing in some help in the form of a big man such as Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh or Lebron James. If Pat Riley is successful, it will cost the Heat $33,137,816 (Note: A Stoudemire max contract would cost an additional $628,333).

So… after all of the above moves, the Heat will have six players under contract at a total cost of $44,248,533. That leaves total remaining cap room of $11,851,467.

Due to league rules, however, not all of the space can be used on one player. The league imposes temporary charges, known as roster charges, which are added to a team’s cap position if it is carrying fewer than 12 players. For each player below 12, team’s add a charge of $473,604. After incorporating these charges, Miami will have $9,009,843 to spend on any one player. This would convert into a contract as large as 5 years/$52.3 million.

Trades. Trades change the equation. But they are not all that difficult to understand. For any player traded away, the Heat’s cap room would increase by the amount of the players’ salary, less $473,604; for any player the Heat acquires in a trade, the Heat’s cap room would decrease by the amount of his salary, less $473,604.

I should mention one final item, which may be obvious to some and not so obvious to others. A team can only trade away players it has under contract (other than draft picks, of course). So none of the Heat’s free agents can be traded unless he is signed first — known as a sign-and-trade. In a sign-and-trade, the free agent signs only if he agrees to be traded to the proposed trade partner and the trade must be simultaneous.

***

That’s it! Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh or Lebron James, a player making $9,009,843, Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook, Joel Anthony, a first round draft pick, and 6 minimum contract players… unless a trade is involved.