Amare's value increases with every playoff victory

Leading up to the last two NBA trade deadlines, Amare Stoudemire seemed destined to leave Phoenix.

Suns executives intensely shopped him as his standing with his team and city soured, and at times appeared close to completing a trade. And though a deal never went through, most of us expected this to be Stoudemire’s final season in the Valley of the Sun.

Now, Suns general manager Steve Kerr seems determined to keep him.

It all makes perfect sense. The Suns finished off the season going 22-5 after the February 18 trade deadline, playing perhaps the best team basketball during the 27-year-old’s eight-year tenure.

It’s amazing how winning basketball games can completely change the outlook of a player driven to seek out a happier home. Having watched the Suns dismantle a Spurs team which came into the series looking poised and confident and limped out of it looking old and defeated, it is hard for me to believe Stoudemire actually wants to leave Phoenix.

He has a head coach in Alvin Gentry which he seems to mesh well with. Gentry has fostered the best relationship with Stoudemire of any coach Stoudemire has had. Gentry even learned how to text-message because it is said to be Stoudemire’s favorite form of off-court communication. It has served him well to get the best all-around effort out of his star. Amare is playing the best basketball of his career, and not just at the offensive end. He is, believe it or not, defending better than most ever thought possible. Just at the right time. Read more…

You may not realize that the Miami Heat will start the offseason with a team salary in excess of the new salary cap threshold. This is caused by intangible charges, called “cap holds,” created by the Heat’s own free agents.

The Heat can very easily get rid of these cap holds in order to create the huge cap space we’ve all been reading about, but does it want to?

While teams with cap space can only spend up to the amount of the salary cap, teams that are over the cap are virtually unlimited in what they can spend through trade.

But the Heat only has two players, Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook, under contract. It doesn’t really have anybody to trade.

Enter the concept of the sign-and-trade.

You may have heard local beat writers discussing the possibility of sign-and-trade agreements as a means for the Heat to increase the total amount of dollars it can spend. They’re right. And they’re wrong. Let me explain. Read more…

Rudy Gay is this offseason's best, and most expensive, free agent small forward money can buy. But he's restricted.

Rudy Gay.

By all accounts, he’s far and away the best true small forward available in free agency. He will command a starting salary of $10 million or more.

It may surprise you (but if you read my CapRoom tab it shouldn’t) to know the Heat can actually sign a max contract power forward and still have the leftover shekels to give it to him. Awesome, right?

But he’s restricted.

That means the Grizzlies would have seven days to match any potential Heat offer and steal him away.

Whatever proposal the Miami makes Memphis has the right to match. Don’t believe they will? Don’t believe they can afford it?

Who cares! That’s not the point! The point is that those $10 million are now tied up and unavailable for seven whole days. An offer to a restricted free agent cannot be rescinded. So Pat Riley will need to sit on his hands for an entire week while the Grizzlies decide on the fate of Rudy Gay… and the Miami Heat.

Pat can’t go shopping for alternatives just in case. Which top tier free agent is going to be willing to sit idly by and wait for the Heat to discover whether it can – or cannot – even make him an offer? Free agency spans a long, long time – many months in fact from its start on July 8 to the start to the regular season in late October. But it could be over in less time than it takes for you to utter the words, what the heck just happened. The best free agents could be gone in days… minutes…

If you were Pat Riley, would you be willing to gamble your organization’s entire future by making an offer to a restricted free agent, giving his existing team the unbridled incentive to shop around for alternatives for the better part of a week? Read more…

We are all eager to know just what Pat Riley has in mind for this offseason.

The short answer – he himself doesn’t even know yet. But it’s my “job” to show you fine reader(s) some alternatives.

In my past couple of posts, I’ve laid out perhaps my favorite approach to creating a championship caliber team in the immediate future. If you believe all the pieces that get me here are possible, I’m already at…

Darren Collison / Carlos Arroyo
Dwyane Wade / Raja Bell
Josh Howard / Robert Dozier
Chris Bosh / Joel Anthony
Emeka Okafor / Jamaal Magloire

…with still five months to go.

But things never work out as you want them to. Nearly a third of the league will be going after Collison this offseason, so this dream scenario might be dead from the start.

What next?

One name that’s been tossed around a lot of late is Monta Ellis. Read more…

Could Josh Howard be the answer at small forward, or is Dorell Wright the better bet?

If you read my previous post, you know that I’m more than just a little bit obsessed with the idea of acquiring Darren Collison. It has as much to do with his incredible promise as a point guard as it does with the paucity of other options at the position. And although he is diminutive in stature, the fact that he can keep up with the likes of a Rajon Rondo makes him all that much more attractive to me.

Let me have my pipe dream scenario for a moment. Let’s assume the Heat successfully acquires Chris Bosh in free agency. Let’s then assume the Heat is willing to eat Emeka Okafor’s salary and surrender every draft pick it holds for the rest of the century in exchange for Darren Collison. Dwyane now has a pretty solid core around him. How would I round out such a roster while working within the confines of the salary cap?

Well, I’ve got my point guard of the future, a top two player in the world at shooting guard, the most coveted power forward on the market, a more than adequate center and about $5 million more to work with (assuming I can dump Beasley and Cook, which shouldn’t be too difficult).

I am torn between two possible scenarios. Read more…

Darren Collison and Emeka Okafor could be linked

We have officially entered the dog days of spring.

There’s a month and a half to go until anything of substance happens for the Heat (i.e., the NBA draft) and two months until free agency begins.

Most of the playoff match-ups feel a bit boring to me. And the games are spaced way too far apart for me to take an active interest. So I figure now is as good a time as any to put on my general manager hat and suggest some avenues Riley can take in the offseason.

I think by now everybody realizes the first Riley call should be to Lebron James, but he’s simply not going to pick up. In all realism, Riley will target Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. That much we know. If he cannot get one of the two to sign on the dotted line, this summer (and the three seasons preceding it) will be a failure. Chris Bosh… then what?

The Heat has enough cap space for two max contract free agents and a third player making $10 million. But to spend that much on a third player is not the most effective way to build a well-rounded team.

While there are a host of free agent options (a list of all free agents by position, as well current salary cap projections and a team-by-team list of projected cap space can be found at this link), my first move as general manager would be to think trade. The target would be Darren Collison. Read more…

With Marcus Camby’s extension confirmed, have Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden become trade options for the Heat at center?

Perhaps you saw that Marcus Camby signed a two-year, $21-million extension with the Blazers a couple of weeks ago.

This was an important move for Portland that solidifies their post situation for next year and beyond. Even at 36 years old, Camby remains an excellent rebounder (11.8 per game this season, good for second in the league) and shot-blocker (2.0 per game, good for fifth in the league).

But in clarifying their starting center position, some feel it also casts Greg Oden’s future with the team into serious doubt. Three years ago, Portland GM Kevin Pritchard selected him first-overall with any eye towards multiple championships. Now, it looks like he’ll enter next season – a contract year before restricted free agency – on the bench.

So what does this mean for Oden? Camby can’t play a ton of minutes in Portland at his advanced age, but he would likely remain the team’s primary center in all situations. Oden, then, would be forced to compete with Joel Przybilla for any backup minutes he can get. Some teams will likely see fit to treat him like a starter-level talent – when healthy, he still looks pretty impressive.

Moving to a new city might actually be in Oden’s best interests. While he’s struggled with injuries, his career is by no means already defined – the raw talent remains whenever he’s able to get on the floor. In Portland, though, he’ll always remind people that he once held promise as the defining big man of a generation, and that the team could have drafted Kevin Durant. With another franchise, he’d have the opportunity for a new start with more realistic expectations.

Read more…

What might have been if Riley's acquisition of Juwan Howard was not voided by the league?

Do you remember the last time the Heat had substantial cap space?

It was the summer of 1996.

Owner Micky Arison had hired basketball’s most celebrated coach the year prior with one goal in mind: to build a  championship-caliber roster. This was Pat Riley’s chance.

Without hesitation, Riley traded away Glen Rice, Khalid Reeves, Matt Geiger, Kevin Willis, Bimbo Coles, Billy Owens and Kevin Gamble in moves designed to create more salary cap room for the summer’s free-agent shopping spree, giving him maximum maneuverability in what was considered at the time to be the NBA’s biggest free-agent market ever.

The Heat began the offseason with just $3.8 million in salary commitments to three players (Sasha Danilovic, Kurt Thomas and Keith Askins), leaving $20.6 million of available room below the $24.4 million salary cap.

Free agent guard Tim Hardaway and center Alonzo Mourning were the cornerstones of the team’s vision. The rest was to be filled on the open market.

One minute after the new labor agreement was finalized at 4:59 p.m. on July 11, the NBA’s free agent marketplace officially opened.

Riley kicked off the summer by turning his sights to budding young superstar Juwan Howard, in what was soon to become one of the most heated and controversial battles in league history.

Boosted by gaudy per game averages of 22.1 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists, Howard had opted-out of his existing contract with the Washington Bullets in favor of the big payday. Pairing Mourning with the 23-year-old first-time All-Star forward was expected to instantaneously boost Miami into the league’s upper echelon.

The Bullets opened up the bidding with an initial seven-year, $78.4 million offer. Although publicly stating his desire to stay with the Bullets, Howard was not impressed. Howard felt that his market value was far greater than that.

The Heat countered at seven years and $91.0 million, plus $3.5 million in bonuses. The Bullets then pushed their offer to an $84.0 million take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum that left Howard in tears about the prospect of leaving Washington. The Heat upped the ante to seven years and $95.2 million offer, plus an additional $5.6 million in bonuses and perks that included luxury hotel suites and limousine service during road trips. It was all but inevitable.

At around 1 a.m. on July 13, Riley’s phone rang. Howard was on the other end. “Coach,” he told Riley. “I’m coming to Miami.”

When the moratorium ended on July 17, the Heat officially signed Howard to a seven-year, $100.8 million contract, making him the NBA’s first ever nine-figure player. Howard was slated to earn more than the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson.

Riley made another big splash the next day, signing forward P.J. Brown to an incentive-laden seven-year deal with a $19.0 million base, but worth as much as $35.8 million based upon the achievement of certain individual and team milestones.

He then turned his sights back inward.

On July 23, Hardaway was re-signed to a four-year, $10.4 million deal, but worth as much as $20.8 million.

The final move in the master plan was to sign Mourning to a seven-year, $105 million contract, utilizing his Bird rights to legally exceed the salary cap by $1.5 million. This opportunity was made possible because Mourning’s $6.8 million cap hold was $2.5 million less than his $9.4 million first-year salary to be.

However, on July 31, with Howard parading around Miami as a member of the Heat, the NBA shockingly voided his contract. Read more…

Now that the Heat has been eliminated from contention, it is a bittersweet feeling to continue watching the playoffs. But there is still plenty to root for.

Next season’s salary cap is based on revenues generated by the league this season. That includes playoff ticket sales, concessions and parking. The longer each playoff series goes, the higher the upcoming cap will be. While the Heat didn’t do anything to help itself – bowing out in just five games – playoff attendance is actually up year-over-year. That could be a good sign.

Last month, Commissioner David Stern said the league is projecting the salary cap to come in around $56.1 million, good news for a Heat team looking to sign top stars during this summer’s expected free agency bonanza. While that figure would still be lower than this season’s $57.7 million cap and only the third time it’s ever fallen, it’s far better than estimates from last summer, when the league sent a memo to teams warning them of a potential sharp drop to between $50.4 million to $53.6 million.

But if the playoffs prove to be more profitable than projected in April, it would certainly be possible for the cap to rise even further. That’s quite meaningful for the Heat. Every dollar rise in the cap is another dollar that can be given to that potential third elite player, after offering max contracts to both Wade and a sidekick.

There are also subplots that should be considered. Each of the Heat’s potential primary targets, with the exception of Chris Bosh, has led his team into the second round of the playoffs. Any such successes can only provide more impetus for teams to offer up more money to retain their stars, and provide more incentive for these players to consider the status quo.

The message is this. Root for the Celtics, Magic, Lakers and Spurs to win their second round match-ups… in seven games.

Now that Heat fans have discovered that Dirk Nowitzki has an early termination option in his contract that could make him a free agent this offseason, many are asking about a potential tandem with Dwyane Wade in South Florida.

It had been widely assumed throughout the season that Nowitzki will remain with the Mavericks. Dirk even indicated as much prior to the playoffs. But Dallas’ first round ousting, its third such exit in the past four years, left him shocked, his comments unconvincing and people wondering.

I nevertheless continue to believe Nowitzki won’t leave the Mavericks.

Dirk wants to win a championship. That would be the impetus for any potential jump, because otherwise life is exceedingly good in Dallas – the facilities, the staff, and the treatment of players are all first class.

There is simply no compelling alternative in the west. Oklahoma City, which has the most free cap space of all potential western conference contenders, is the only even remotely viable scenario. Dirk would seem to be a perfect fit, and perhaps the missing link to a legitimate title run. The two stadiums are also just 200 miles apart. But the $16.5 million the Thunder could offer is more than $5 million less than he is set to make by remaining in Dallas.

All potential scenarios in the east involve rebuilding projects with questionable pasts and unproven futures. There’s simply too much uncertainty for him to take such a huge risk.

Remaining in Dallas seems logical. Owner Mark Cuban is eager to extend Dirk’s contract, which would have him making $21.5 million next season. And the Mavericks, despite its recent early round playoff exits, continue to be a significant title threat.

Cuban is committed to that end like no other owner in the league.

He spends whatever it takes. His is the only team in the N.B.A. that has both exceeded the tax threshold in every season since 2005/06 — before which there was no tax — and has guaranteed contracts for next season which exceed next season’s projected threshold.

He does whatever it takes. He is reportedly preparing to make a pitch to pair Dirk with prized free agent LeBron James, though I don’t see how in the world such an acquisition would ever come to pass.

Dirk isn’t leaving Dallas.

As far as the Heat is concerned, it’s not such a big loss. Dirk is an elite player. But he also turns 32 next month, commands a salary far too high for the team’s liking (Wade, by comparison, is set to make $5 million less), and he’s not the tough, banger-type that could shift over to the center position in a pinch.

Dirk in Miami? It’s a nice thought, but it’s not going to happen.