Update 12/21:Dalembert ultimately agreed to a two-year $13.7 million contract with the lottery-bound Rockets. The Heat were in position to offer four years and $21.4 million. He had accepted a deal with the Heat, Dalembert would be the team’s starting center. Had he not accepted, the Heat would still have its mini mid-level exception. 

There were several reasons why the Miami Heat were beaten by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals six months ago. First and foremost, the Mavs were pretty damn impressive.

But the Heat did have its issues. Some the front office couldn’t really address. What happened to LeBron James is something he’s got to deal with on his own. What happened in the trenches, well, that the Heat could’ve done something about.

Riley said at the end of last season, “We would like to get size. We would like to get length. Joel Anthony has done an incredible job and he will get better. But we’d like to get size.”

It looks like the Heat has failed in its top offseason priority.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks have added 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler to a frontline that already features Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. The Nets are angling to pair incumbent point guard Deron Williams with Dwight Howard. And the Bulls’ Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah combined to average 20 rebounds per game in the conference finals last year, nearly doubling up the output of Heat starting big men Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony. What was once difficult to mask is now getting nearly impossible.

It was always going to be tough. While the center market this year was much deeper than usual, the Heat had limited ways to attract one. Dreams of Nene Hilario, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, or Tyson Chandler were patently ridiculous. The team had the means and opportunity to utilize the full $5 million mid-level exception. The hope was that it would be enough to attract the likes of Samuel Dalembert. But those hopes were obliterated when Dalembert announced his intention to chase the big payday.

Rather than exercise patience in an otherwise uncertain market, complicated by a truncated free agency period and unknown amnesty implications, the Heat went out and committed itself to nearly $24 million in free agent contracts on the first day possible, soaring past the luxury tax threshold where the new collective bargaining agreement rules limit their ability to improve their roster.

Was it the right decision?

It is an exceedingly difficult task to prognosticate what might have happened had history been altered to reflect a different reality. In this particular situation, though, it becomes a heck of a lot easier because the Heat didn’t do all that much.

They signed Shane Battier. That’s it.

So the only question you need to ask yourself (and answer honestly, without the benefit of hindsight) is: Would you rather have Shane Battier, or the possibility of signing Samuel Dalembert even though he has already rejected you in favor of the bigger payday?

That’s the very question Pat Riley and his crew faced on December 9.

No general manager likes to be held hostage at the whim of a player, particularly one who doesn’t necessarily possess game-changing talent. It is certainly understandable that Riley chose to move on.

Battier’s mobility has slipped several notches, so the 33-year-old isn’t the elite stopper he was a few years ago. Quicker wing players will eat him up. But his intelligence as a defender still causes headaches for bigger wing players. Nobody is more successful at baiting opponents into shooting contested 20-footers, yet Battier combines that with an off-ball awareness to be in the right spot to take charges or block shots.

Offensively, Battier’s main weapon is the corner 3. In that regard, he is quite similar to incumbent small forward James Jones – albeit with far less proficiency, and with a low and slow release that he can be run off of.

But Battier is, for better or worse, now one of four Heat small forwards. He will be 35 for the final season of his contract. And any minutes he gets will come at the expense of Jones, who is already under-utilized. Maybe, just maybe, a six month hiatus has masked the severity of the problem at center.

Starting center Joel Anthony stands just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best). He is a woefully undersized center in a league of giants which, along with hands of stone, makes rebounding the basketball a virtual impossibility. And any defensive value you may think he provides is more than offset by the fact that he is quite possibly the single worst offensive player in basketball.

Last season, Miami gave up one point fewer per 100 possessions with Joel on the court, but they scored three points more with him off of it. Miami outscored their opponents by an average of 4.1 points per 48 minutes with Joel on the court, but they outscored their opponents by 9.4 points with him off of it. In fact, his on-court/off-court differential was the worst of all Heat centers (yes, that includes Dampier, Magloire, Ilgauskas and Pittman). When you type in his name on YouTube, it auto-corrects to “Joel Anthony Airball Dunk,” which leads to this video.

Can the Heat win with Joel Anthony? Sure. They proved that last season.

But he is not the answer. And while Eddy Curry does provide a certain degree of intrigue, a string of injuries, an irregular heartbeat, a penchant for eating, a lack of conditioning, a propensity for laziness, and a pair of slow feet would suggest he is hardly a reliable option to eat up minutes down low. Dexter Pittman could well be the future, but he’s given no indication that his game is NBA ready as yet.

Was Battier worth the money?

The Heat, for better for worse, has now used its MLE for this season and, given its tax situation, will almost certainly no longer be able to afford to use its MLE for next season to upgrade the center position.

Was Battier worth the opportunity given up?

Samuel Dalembert is by no means a perfect solution.

His shooting numbers regressed considerably last season after a fluke 2009-10 campaign, and it appeared poor conditioning was partly to blame. As per usual, he didn’t shoot all that well from close range thanks to a lack of strength and poor finishing instincts. He’s also a miserable caretaker of the basketball.

But is he a perfect solution for this team?

The 30-year-old nine-year veteran can still board like nobody’s business. Dalembert’s 16.3 rebounds per 48 minutes last season was good for fourth in the entire NBA (after Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, and Kris Humphries; ahead of Tyson Chandler, Blake Griffin, and everyone else you can think of). This is not a new trend. He was third the season before, and fifth the season before that.

Dalembert has value on defense too, solidifying the middle with his length, mobility, and shot-blocking skills (where he’s been a top-15 contributor per 48 minutes his entire career).

Offensively, he’s not a post threat. But he’s a strong mid-range shooter who scoops up garbage points and hits his free throws. His athleticism and ability to run the floor would presumably also lead to numerous alley-oop dunks in an uptempo offensive system.

His desire to play for the Heat reflects his conflicted mind. On November 27, Dalembert told Fox Sports Florida’s Chris Tomasson that joining the Heat “would be fantastic.” But ten days later, he told Tomasson that the notion of playing for the Heat at mid-level money “would be tough.”

With this in mind, let’s try to prognosticate an alternate reality for the Heat:

December 8: Dalembert makes clear to Riley his intention to pursue a bigger-money contract than the Heat can afford.

December 9: Free agency officially begins. Riley passes on Shane Battier. Mario Chalmers and James Jones ink their three year deals (the former at $4.5 million and the latter at $12 million, subject to a team option on the third year). Norris Cole signs his rookie scale contract.

Riley goes on national TV and preaches the value of continuity. Mike Miller, however, is privately panicking over the possibility of being amnestied.

December 10: Juwan Howard and Eddy Curry sign their one-year minimum salary contracts (the latter non-guaranteed). Local beat writers report that the team has now filled 13 of its 15 total roster spots. Not so inept in their own right, however, the beat writers figure out what’s going on. The Heat is keeping the full mid-level exception in its arsenal.

The speculation around Dalembert mounts. The city starts going crazy with anticipation. The tension is palpable. Blog sites authored by self-proclaimed salary cap experts explode with commenters.  “Sammy D” billboards start popping up all around the city. The Haitian community throws a “Sammy D” parade. Local ice cream parlors change the name of their chocolate offerings to “Sammy D Double Double Chocolate Delight.”

December 11: Chauncey Billups is amnestied by the Knicks. The Heat, who lack a veteran presence at the point guard position, are tempted. But they can do nothing about it.

December 13: Four days have now passed since the start of free agency. Dalembert’s potential suitors are dwindling. The Knicks have signed Tyson Chandler. The Raptors have signed Jamaal Magoire and Aaron Grey. The Nuggets have agreed to terms with Nene Hilario. The Mavericks have traded for Lamar Odom. The Nets are focused exclusively on Dwight Howard. The Rockets remain a viable option, but only after having their deal for Pau Gasol get rejected by Commissioner David Stern (as part of the controversial Chris Paul trade to the Lakers) and their max contract offer to his brother get topped by the Grizzlies.

The Heat front office is bristling with anticipation. But business is business. Riley still has two roster spots to fill. The hope is that Sammy D fills one. If he does, Mike Miller becomes an amnesty casualty. That leaves two more spots to fill. The team engages in conversation with a potential replacement for Miller – Michael Redd, an alternative in case Dalembert doesn’t work out – Kyrylo Fesenko, in a world where the Heat didn’t hastily sign Juwan Howard – Troy Murphy, and in a world in which he didn’t sleep with LeBron’s mom – Delonte West.

December 15: The Heat hosts its annual training camp scrimmage. Norris Cole kills it. He’s mesmerizing. We are all blown away. We simply didn’t see this coming. Cole looks every bit the point guard of the future. In Pat, we trust!

Cole isn’t the only one turning heads. After scoring 17 points in the scrimmage, Terell Harris is making a strong case for why it would make sense to keep the young talent. For a team without a true backup two-guard, the 24-year-old’s polished three-point range and athletic wing defense is a welcome revelation. With as many as three roster spots available, his performance against the Magic on Saturday becomes a huge measuring stick. A strong performance all but assures him a roster spot.

The void at center, however, is significant. Joel Anthony is, well, Joel Anthony. Eddy Curry looks bloated. Dexter Pittman looks like he has Sioux Falls in his future.

Sammy D’s value gets blown ridiculously out of proportion. He is portrayed as the savior of an otherwise struggling franchise. We all start convincing ourselves that he would be an idiot not to accept the Heat’s mid-level offer. We tell him to forget the money. Dude’s already banked $69 million in his career; another $21 from the Heat takes him to $90 mil. Focus on the rings, the home in Boca Raton, the Haitian community, the proximity to your homeland.

Dreams of a Norris Cole, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Samuel Dalembert starting five have us brimming with anticipation.

December 16: Seven days have now passed since the start of free agency. This is the final day in which teams can designate an amnesty candidate. Mike Miller is sweating profusely in his gorgeous West Palm Beach waterfront estate. He knows that for the Heat to have access to the full mid-level exception, he has to go.

Houston general manager Daryl Morey acknowledges that he is in negotiations with Dalembert. But he sounds conflicted. “We have interest in Sam. If it makes sense for him and us, we would love to have him. I think he’s somebody who could add presence in the middle, rebounding, shot blocking that could help us out. That said, I think our young guys are some guys that could develop and give us that as well.”

This is our chance. Riley strikes.

He reaches out to Sammy D one last time. He offers a guaranteed starting position in what now figures to be a much more up-tempo offense with Norris “No-No” Cole at the helm, and a full mid-level contract (four years, $21.4 million) to boot.

HTN of America, the full-time Haitian television network headquartered in Miami, offers Dalembert a lucrative TV contract. Radio R.C.H., the South Florida Haitian community radio station, simultaneously offers him a lucrative radio deal. ESPN propositions him for a commercial with Brett Favre mocking their infuriating indecision. None of this has anything to do with Pat Riley, of course.

Oh, and Riley informs Dalembert that if the offer is not accepted by end-of-day, the offer will drop to three years and $9.4 million (the “mini” mid-level exception).

***

What happens next we can only speculate.

Does Dalembert accept? Do Troy Murphy and Delonte West follow? Does Terrel Harris replace the now departed Mike Miller?

Where does Miller go? Does he clear amnesty waivers? Does he get swept up by the Bulls? the Knicks?

Does Dalembert reject? Do the Rockets, or perhaps the Kings on a one-year deal, then pony up bigger dollars for Sammy D?

Does the Heat roster remain as it is today – minus one Shane Battier, plus one Terrel Harris and one still unused “mini” mid-level exception? Does the Heat utilize that exception, or does it instead choose to recognize the $6 million in savings for this season and next, and as much as $14 million or more in the third? Does not using the exception provide the team the flexibility to make a run at a starting center next off-season?

It’s a conclusion that will never be written.