It’s back, baby!

After 196 days of withdrawal, anticipation, lockouts, light-hearted twitter declarations by rightfully beloved owners, and over-reaching punishments by an overly eager commissioner, life is back as it should be.

Tomorrow, at 2:30 pm, we get Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh in a game that matters. We get to settle in, grab some turkey, crack open a beer, and, that’s right, watch some NBA basketball.

You may have cursed the players. You may have cursed the owners. You may have considered quitting the game altogether. You may have forgotten what it looked like, sounded like, felt like. It all seems like a distant memory now.

But the lockout, the one that was supposed to wipe out the entire 2011-12 season, is over.

Forget the “nuclear winter” references. There’s no more need for nifty marketing tricks by a league that threatened to undermine itself during the offseason. No need to feign interest in tired exhibition games or world tours.

We’re past trying to convince ourselves that hockey is an acceptable replacement. Past trying to rely upon one lousy game of football every seven days to carry us through.

We’ve past hearing that damn phrase “basketball-related-income,” as it relates to how many dollars the players should be pocketing. Past hearing about the struggles of those poor owners trying to make ends meet. Past the audit reports, the tax forms, the lawsuits, Dwyane Wade and David Stern lashing out at each other from across the board room table.

We’re past trying to convince ourselves that all those hours we had free from the sport would somehow pour, seamlessly, into making us better people, more learned, the kind who understand what the hell is going on in the world and can start to appreciate the finer things in life. Now things are, thankfully, back to normal; all attempts at self-improvement will have to work themselves around the NBA schedule.

It’s time to start training that one eye to keep constant watch on the flow of the game, while the other peeks over at those half-naked cheerleaders. It’s time to start utilizing the halftime break as a means to scout the talent around us. It’s time to celebrate, say, 49 home victories with 20,000 of your closest strangers.

Sure, the now-settled labor dispute will, without a doubt, make the season more challenging. An entire offseason’s worth of predictions, rumors, scouting, speculation, signings, trades, injuries, scandals, preparation, practice and training have all been crammed into three short weeks. The compacted 66-game schedule will require every team to play games at a pace of more than one every two days, including games on three consecutive days at least once.

As a result, there will be sloppy play. There will be fluctuating intensity. There will be injuries. But those challenges only heighten the thrill of accomplishment.

Which brings us to the Miami Heat.

Even without a title, the 2010-11 season, from beginning to end, was some of the most compelling theater we’ve ever witnessed as sports fans.

This year is going to be better.

The starting rotation will be the best in basketball. D-Wade, Bron and CB1 are going to find a way to simultaneously extract the best of each other. Mario Chalmers is going to build upon his playoff success and become the type of floor spacing guard this team so desperately craves. Joel Anthony is, well, a lost cause (let’s not get carried away).

The second going to deliver in a big way. A healthy Mike Miller is going to lead the league in three-point shooting. A healthy Udonis Haslem is going to lead the league in bench rebounding. Shane Battier is going to prove he remains a solid wing stopper. James Jones is going to hit that playoff-game-winning three; won’t that be sweet redemption.

Norris Cole is going to deliver the breakout season he’s capable of. His quick first step will push the tempo offensively and make the game faster, more thrilling, and harder to defend. His dogged defense is going to be exactly what this team needs.

Coach Spoelstra is going to learn from past mistakes and, with an off-season of reflection, deliver an efficient offensive strategy for half-court success. Combined with what is already the game’s best transition offense and perhaps the game’s most suffocating defense, this team will blow out its opponents on a nightly basis.

This time, we will not be denied. This time, we will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Tip-off is less than twenty-four hours away. This is our time. This is our stage. Let’s get motivated. Let’s get this thing done.

Pat Riley has built himself a perennial powerhouse here in South Florida. The Miami Heat was the title favorite heading into last season, is the title favorite heading into this season, and figures to remain that way into the foreseeable future.

But this is not a team without its issues. It has flaws. Big ones.

When Riley assembled the three-headed monster of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last season, the majority of the NBA world thought the trio would be unstoppable. While the Heat did make the NBA Finals, the team was far from as dominant as most thought they would be.

The new-look Heat appeared constantly disjointed in its first season together. Much of it was attributed to the growing pains of a superstar trio learning how to co-exist. Things were supposed to be much more fluid this time around. That goal has yet to materialize.

Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has progressed nicely, but is hardly the type that can be relied upon to run the Heat’s half court offense. He’s never been much of an initiator, and so when he’s not knocking down his shots it’s hard to justify playing him at all.

Starting power forward Chris Bosh still looks uncomfortable trying to acclimate to his new role. Of Miami’s three stars, Bosh has been forced to concede the most. James and Wade function as initiators of the offense, while Bosh has been used primarily as a spot-up shooter on the weak side. That’s a significant concession for a star like Bosh, who’s accustomed to not only more offensive involvement, but also to having a system tailor-made to his strengths.

Starting center Joel Anthony is, well, Joel Anthony. At just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best), he is a woefully undersized center in a league of giants which, along with hands of stone, makes rebounding the basketball a virtual impossibility. And any defensive value you may think he provides is more than offset by the fact that he is the single worst offensive player in basketball. The numbers bear that out. Last season, Miami gave up 1.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Joel on the court, but they scored 3.4 more points with him off of it.

And the team as a whole, despite averaging 109 points per game this preseason, due in part to its new transition-oriented mentality, has yet to find a consistent, reliable half court offense.

That has left the Heat where they hoped they wouldn’t have to reside this season, largely counting on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to handle the heavy lifting.

Despite the championship aspirations, Riley can’t feel too good about the lack of a veteran point guard or a consistent low-post threat. Rumor has it that he is still maneuvering to address those needs.

But the team has precious little time and precious few resources with which to materially improve. The season begins in two days. And, as currently structured, the Heat is already $11 million over next season’s luxury tax threshold (assuming a 14-man roster filled out with the team’s first round draft pick and minimum salary veterans).

Is it time to at least consider a potential trade?

The majority of us would presumably welcome a trade, but only if it centers around the untenable contract of either Joel Anthony or Mike Miller. In the world of professional basketball, though, you can’t trade garbage for gold. When you talk trade, you’ve got to be willing to give up as much as you get.

Anthony’s contract would be exceedingly difficult to move. A rejuvenated Mike Miller offers a bit more intrigue, but at age 31 and as an extreme health risk, such a proposition looks equally daunting, particularly when considering that he still has another four seasons remaining on his contract, he pulls in roughly $6 million per, and he has a 15% trade kicker which, by league rules, he cannot waive.

So if a trade is to materialize, where is it going to come from?

Breaking up Wade and James is a non-starter. It simply won’t happen.

Suggested Trade Proposal
Miami Heat trade: Norris Cole and Chris Bosh
Phoenix Suns trade: Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat

Realistic? Why not?

The lottery-bound Phoenix Suns are currently trapped in a vortex of indecision. The team has developed a somewhat reasonable core of youthful talent but still remains one of the oldest rotations in the league, thanks to a pair of wildly popular thirty-something starters in Nash and Grant Hill, each of whom is only delaying the inevitable rebuilding process. The Suns are a team going nowhere fast, and are hardly an attractive free agent destination for upper echelon talent.

The proposed trade would place the Suns’ rebuilding strategy into overdrive.

Despite his decline in productivity last season, due exclusively to his role as third option in the Heat’s less than stellar half court offense, Chris Bosh is still every bit the man we thought he was just one season ago – among the best power forwards in the game today, the likes of whom the Suns may never be able to attract on the open market. He his young. He is quick. He is a bankable 23/10 guy on his own, and someone head coach Alvin Gentry can structure an entire offense around if he were so inclined. The Suns sorely lack such a player.

Norris Cole is a solid young point guard who has thus far wildly exceeded even the rosiest of expectations with his scintillating play, and is set to earn just above the league minimum for nearly half a decade. He likes to play at pace, which fits perfectly within Gentry’s offensive philosophy. For a Suns team that has no natural replacement for Nash (with restricted free agent Aaron Brooks stuck in China, and set to command a hefty pay increase when he returns), Cole could be a perfect fit.

The Suns could thus start anew with a youthful core centered around guards Cole and Jared Dudley, forwards Bosh and rookie Markieff Morris, and centers Robin Lopez and Channing Frye… and still have as much as $22 million under the salary cap with which to work next off-season (before dealing with restricted free agent Lopez and assuming Childress were to be amnestied).

Not too bad a haul in return for a guy who’s about to walk away for nothing, and another who figures to split his minutes under the basket yet again this season before walking away for nothing the season after.

In return, Riley gets everything he ever wanted.

1. He gets a top-notch, veteran point guard who complements the offense perfectly.

Despite his advanced age, Nash remains the gold standard for a point guard. He is perhaps the best in the game today at breaking down a defense and creating shots for his teammates. He is a genius pick-and-roll operator who shreds defenses with passes from either hand. He is one of best outside shooters in league history, and the single best free throw shooter in league history. Nash can create his own shot in times of need, but prefers to distribute the ball and set up as a weak-side shooter. Perfect.

Best of all, Nash commands respect from even the game’s greats as the unquestioned leader of his offense and, in turn, has never been one to allow it to stagnate.

2. He gets a dominating low post presence.

How would Gortat look in a Heat uniform? He’s huge, he’s athletic, he’s among the best pick-and-roll operators around, he’s got a strong post game, he’s got a soft touch around the rim, he’s got good range on his jump shot, he’s a solid post defender, he’s a skilled shot blocker, and he’s a beast on the boards. Is there a more perfect fit for this Miami Heat team, outside of Dwight Howard, in the whole of the NBA?

Gortat, who had always displayed tough defense and rebounding behind Dwight Howard, finally got a chance to prove that his fantastic per-minute numbers could be sustained in extended minutes. After a trade sent him to Phoenix, he was one of the game’s best big men, averaging 15.3 points (on 57% shooting), 10.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks after the All-Star break. The so-called “Polish Hammer” is, quite simply, the most underrated player in the game today… a future All-Star on a ridiculously attractive contract.

3. He gets to present his owner, Micky Arison, with massive savings.

It’s not yet clear how the Heat can cope financially with being a repeat tax team, but the way they’ve built their roster virtually assures them of being one. It’s going to be very hard for Miami to stay in contention without being a repeat tax offender, but that status will be dealt with very harshly by this collective bargaining agreement.

Tax rates have significantly increased, from the old rate of dollar-for-dollar to progressively higher rates that begin in 2012-13 at: (i) $1.50 per dollar for the first $5 million a team is over the tax threshold, (ii) increasing to $1.75 per dollar for the $5-10 million increment, (iii) increasing to $2.50 per dollar for the $10-15 million increment, (iv) increasing to $3.25 per dollar for the $15-20 million increment, and (v) increasing an additional $0.50 for every further $5 million increment. In addition, a $1 “repeater tax” will be added on for any team that is a taxpayer in the current as well as any three of the previous four seasons covered by the new collective bargaining agreement.

Even with its stars, the Heat can’t offset this tax hit with the revenues of an L.A. or New York.

How dire is the financial situation for the Heat?

Joel’s modest $3.8 million salary in 2014-15 currently figures to cost the team between $17.1 and $20.0 million after incorporating the tax. The cost of any new additions could be up to $5.25 or more for every dollar given out via a contract offer. That means that under the current construct, the spending likely stops completely. Now. No full mid-level exception next season. No mini mid-level exception either.

From a monetary perspective, the proposed trade produces about even dollars flowing in and out for this season. But that’s not the whole picture. If Nash were to indicate a willingness to sign a new contract in the off-season (he’s not eligible to be extended) starting at, say, the value of the mid-level exception for room teams, the Heat would transform itself from being $11 million over the tax threshold next season to as much as $5 million below it.

Why is that important?

For one, it provides the Heat with access to the full mid-level exception in July in order to bolster the thinned-out power forward rotation, when such names as Brandon Bass, Carl Landry, Kevin Garnett, Kris Humphries, Michael Beasley, and Ryan Anderson (a personal favorite) all become free agents.

For another, even after utilizing the mid-level exception (and the team’s first round draft pick), the proposed construct could potentially still not be a taxpaying team next season. That’s got to get Micky salivating.

Here’s a look at the construct:

If Riley were not so inclined to stay below the tax threshold, and he sure does not appear to be today, the Heat would also have access to the then $2.0 million bi-annual exception, which would enable the team to potentially shore up its depth at either the shooting guard (perhaps free-agent-to-be Ray Allen) or point guard (perhaps free-agent-to-be Kirk Hinrich) position. Such a team would project to be less than $1 million over the tax threshold (with plenty of options in which to maneuver to drop below it). It would also allow the team to offer Steve Nash a larger contract, if need be.

The cost for the Heat would be steep, with Cole’s huge upside potential still completely untapped. It would be highly advantageous if Riley were to find a way not to include him. It’s certainly where the shrewd negotiator would start the negotiation process. This is where all the future first round draft picks that the Heat has given away really hurts.

But think of the result.

Dreams of a Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Udonis Haslem and Marcin Gortat starting five should have you salivating. Add to that a bench that features Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, James Jones, and Joel Anthony for this season, as well as a full mid-level exception (Ryan Anderson?), a bi-annual exception (Ray Allen?), and a first round draft pick for next season, and even the smallest of hesitations should be wiped away.

Then there’s the payroll savings to discuss: around $15 million in 2012-13, and easily in the $20 million range when the higher tax rates kick in the following season…

The Nash/Gortat pick-and-roll would create an entirely new and distinct source of offense for the Heat, completely eliminating the team’s over-reliance on its duo of future Hall of Famers. You may be surprised to know that the Nash/Gortat tandem was the single most effective pick-and-roll combination in the entire league last season. That’s a bankable half-court offense in its own right, even before contemplating a now freed-up Wade and James slashing to the basket while it’s happening.

Imagine how much finally having a legitimate low post scoring threat in Gortat would open up the offense. Imagine the Nash-to-Gortat pick-and-rolls. Imagine the Wade-to-Gortat alley-oops. Imagine Nash penetrating through the heart of the defense and tossing a fancy no-look pass to a slashing LeBron. Imagine Dwyane driving to the basket and kicking out for a wide open UD jumper or, even better, a Nash three-pointer. Imagine Wade and James not having to constantly fight through double and triple teams. Imagine the offensive rebounds. Oh, the offensive rebounds!

The permutations under such a construct are limited only by the mind’s imagination.

This team would become, in one hyphenated word, un-guardable.

It’s difficult to imagine the defense would suffer much either. Nash, by no means a quality defender, is certainly no worse than was last season’s starter Mike Bibby. Haslem, by all accounts, is a defensive improvement over Bosh. Gortat is the massive penetration-killing ogre down low that Riley has sought out for the better part of two years now. The massive defensive rebounding problem that plagues this Heat team would be wiped away completely, with Gortat, Haslem, James, and Wade all among the best defensive rebounders in the game at their respective positions. And the bench would be littered with a perfect blend of top-notch defenders (i.e., Battier, Anthony) and knock-down shooters (i.e., Chalmers, Jones).

One could argue that defense doesn’t matter all that much anyway, for a team that is made up of five starters who each shoot 50% from the field or better (as per last season), has added a ton of offensive rebounding, has added a point guard capable of managing an efficient half court offense, and has the game’s best transition offense.

All of this, plus a first round draft pick and access to both the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions next season.

That’s the vision anyway.

It just makes too much sense not to consider. That is, when it becomes possible. Norris Cole, having executed his contract on December 10th, cannot be traded until January 9th. The hairline fracture in Gortat’s right thumb should heal quite nicely by then.

Update 12/21:Dalembert ultimately agreed to a two-year $13.7 million contract with the lottery-bound Rockets. The Heat were in position to offer four years and $21.4 million. He had accepted a deal with the Heat, Dalembert would be the team’s starting center. Had he not accepted, the Heat would still have its mini mid-level exception. 

There were several reasons why the Miami Heat were beaten by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals six months ago. First and foremost, the Mavs were pretty damn impressive.

But the Heat did have its issues. Some the front office couldn’t really address. What happened to LeBron James is something he’s got to deal with on his own. What happened in the trenches, well, that the Heat could’ve done something about.

Riley said at the end of last season, “We would like to get size. We would like to get length. Joel Anthony has done an incredible job and he will get better. But we’d like to get size.”

It looks like the Heat has failed in its top offseason priority.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks have added 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler to a frontline that already features Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. The Nets are angling to pair incumbent point guard Deron Williams with Dwight Howard. And the Bulls’ Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah combined to average 20 rebounds per game in the conference finals last year, nearly doubling up the output of Heat starting big men Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony. What was once difficult to mask is now getting nearly impossible.

It was always going to be tough. While the center market this year was much deeper than usual, the Heat had limited ways to attract one. Dreams of Nene Hilario, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, or Tyson Chandler were patently ridiculous. The team had the means and opportunity to utilize the full $5 million mid-level exception. The hope was that it would be enough to attract the likes of Samuel Dalembert. But those hopes were obliterated when Dalembert announced his intention to chase the big payday.

Rather than exercise patience in an otherwise uncertain market, complicated by a truncated free agency period and unknown amnesty implications, the Heat went out and committed itself to nearly $24 million in free agent contracts on the first day possible, soaring past the luxury tax threshold where the new collective bargaining agreement rules limit their ability to improve their roster.

Was it the right decision?

It is an exceedingly difficult task to prognosticate what might have happened had history been altered to reflect a different reality. In this particular situation, though, it becomes a heck of a lot easier because the Heat didn’t do all that much.

They signed Shane Battier. That’s it.

So the only question you need to ask yourself (and answer honestly, without the benefit of hindsight) is: Would you rather have Shane Battier, or the possibility of signing Samuel Dalembert even though he has already rejected you in favor of the bigger payday?

That’s the very question Pat Riley and his crew faced on December 9.

No general manager likes to be held hostage at the whim of a player, particularly one who doesn’t necessarily possess game-changing talent. It is certainly understandable that Riley chose to move on.

Battier’s mobility has slipped several notches, so the 33-year-old isn’t the elite stopper he was a few years ago. Quicker wing players will eat him up. But his intelligence as a defender still causes headaches for bigger wing players. Nobody is more successful at baiting opponents into shooting contested 20-footers, yet Battier combines that with an off-ball awareness to be in the right spot to take charges or block shots.

Offensively, Battier’s main weapon is the corner 3. In that regard, he is quite similar to incumbent small forward James Jones – albeit with far less proficiency, and with a low and slow release that he can be run off of.

But Battier is, for better or worse, now one of four Heat small forwards. He will be 35 for the final season of his contract. And any minutes he gets will come at the expense of Jones, who is already under-utilized. Maybe, just maybe, a six month hiatus has masked the severity of the problem at center.

Starting center Joel Anthony stands just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best). He is a woefully undersized center in a league of giants which, along with hands of stone, makes rebounding the basketball a virtual impossibility. And any defensive value you may think he provides is more than offset by the fact that he is quite possibly the single worst offensive player in basketball.

Last season, Miami gave up one point fewer per 100 possessions with Joel on the court, but they scored three points more with him off of it. Miami outscored their opponents by an average of 4.1 points per 48 minutes with Joel on the court, but they outscored their opponents by 9.4 points with him off of it. In fact, his on-court/off-court differential was the worst of all Heat centers (yes, that includes Dampier, Magloire, Ilgauskas and Pittman). When you type in his name on YouTube, it auto-corrects to “Joel Anthony Airball Dunk,” which leads to this video.

Can the Heat win with Joel Anthony? Sure. They proved that last season.

But he is not the answer. And while Eddy Curry does provide a certain degree of intrigue, a string of injuries, an irregular heartbeat, a penchant for eating, a lack of conditioning, a propensity for laziness, and a pair of slow feet would suggest he is hardly a reliable option to eat up minutes down low. Dexter Pittman could well be the future, but he’s given no indication that his game is NBA ready as yet.

Was Battier worth the money?

The Heat, for better for worse, has now used its MLE for this season and, given its tax situation, will almost certainly no longer be able to afford to use its MLE for next season to upgrade the center position.

Was Battier worth the opportunity given up?

Samuel Dalembert is by no means a perfect solution.

His shooting numbers regressed considerably last season after a fluke 2009-10 campaign, and it appeared poor conditioning was partly to blame. As per usual, he didn’t shoot all that well from close range thanks to a lack of strength and poor finishing instincts. He’s also a miserable caretaker of the basketball.

But is he a perfect solution for this team?

The 30-year-old nine-year veteran can still board like nobody’s business. Dalembert’s 16.3 rebounds per 48 minutes last season was good for fourth in the entire NBA (after Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, and Kris Humphries; ahead of Tyson Chandler, Blake Griffin, and everyone else you can think of). This is not a new trend. He was third the season before, and fifth the season before that.

Dalembert has value on defense too, solidifying the middle with his length, mobility, and shot-blocking skills (where he’s been a top-15 contributor per 48 minutes his entire career).

Offensively, he’s not a post threat. But he’s a strong mid-range shooter who scoops up garbage points and hits his free throws. His athleticism and ability to run the floor would presumably also lead to numerous alley-oop dunks in an uptempo offensive system.

His desire to play for the Heat reflects his conflicted mind. On November 27, Dalembert told Fox Sports Florida’s Chris Tomasson that joining the Heat “would be fantastic.” But ten days later, he told Tomasson that the notion of playing for the Heat at mid-level money “would be tough.”

With this in mind, let’s try to prognosticate an alternate reality for the Heat:

December 8: Dalembert makes clear to Riley his intention to pursue a bigger-money contract than the Heat can afford.

December 9: Free agency officially begins. Riley passes on Shane Battier. Mario Chalmers and James Jones ink their three year deals (the former at $4.5 million and the latter at $12 million, subject to a team option on the third year). Norris Cole signs his rookie scale contract.

Riley goes on national TV and preaches the value of continuity. Mike Miller, however, is privately panicking over the possibility of being amnestied.

December 10: Juwan Howard and Eddy Curry sign their one-year minimum salary contracts (the latter non-guaranteed). Local beat writers report that the team has now filled 13 of its 15 total roster spots. Not so inept in their own right, however, the beat writers figure out what’s going on. The Heat is keeping the full mid-level exception in its arsenal.

The speculation around Dalembert mounts. The city starts going crazy with anticipation. The tension is palpable. Blog sites authored by self-proclaimed salary cap experts explode with commenters.  “Sammy D” billboards start popping up all around the city. The Haitian community throws a “Sammy D” parade. Local ice cream parlors change the name of their chocolate offerings to “Sammy D Double Double Chocolate Delight.”

December 11: Chauncey Billups is amnestied by the Knicks. The Heat, who lack a veteran presence at the point guard position, are tempted. But they can do nothing about it.

December 13: Four days have now passed since the start of free agency. Dalembert’s potential suitors are dwindling. The Knicks have signed Tyson Chandler. The Raptors have signed Jamaal Magoire and Aaron Grey. The Nuggets have agreed to terms with Nene Hilario. The Mavericks have traded for Lamar Odom. The Nets are focused exclusively on Dwight Howard. The Rockets remain a viable option, but only after having their deal for Pau Gasol get rejected by Commissioner David Stern (as part of the controversial Chris Paul trade to the Lakers) and their max contract offer to his brother get topped by the Grizzlies.

The Heat front office is bristling with anticipation. But business is business. Riley still has two roster spots to fill. The hope is that Sammy D fills one. If he does, Mike Miller becomes an amnesty casualty. That leaves two more spots to fill. The team engages in conversation with a potential replacement for Miller – Michael Redd, an alternative in case Dalembert doesn’t work out – Kyrylo Fesenko, in a world where the Heat didn’t hastily sign Juwan Howard – Troy Murphy, and in a world in which he didn’t sleep with LeBron’s mom – Delonte West.

December 15: The Heat hosts its annual training camp scrimmage. Norris Cole kills it. He’s mesmerizing. We are all blown away. We simply didn’t see this coming. Cole looks every bit the point guard of the future. In Pat, we trust!

Cole isn’t the only one turning heads. After scoring 17 points in the scrimmage, Terell Harris is making a strong case for why it would make sense to keep the young talent. For a team without a true backup two-guard, the 24-year-old’s polished three-point range and athletic wing defense is a welcome revelation. With as many as three roster spots available, his performance against the Magic on Saturday becomes a huge measuring stick. A strong performance all but assures him a roster spot.

The void at center, however, is significant. Joel Anthony is, well, Joel Anthony. Eddy Curry looks bloated. Dexter Pittman looks like he has Sioux Falls in his future.

Sammy D’s value gets blown ridiculously out of proportion. He is portrayed as the savior of an otherwise struggling franchise. We all start convincing ourselves that he would be an idiot not to accept the Heat’s mid-level offer. We tell him to forget the money. Dude’s already banked $69 million in his career; another $21 from the Heat takes him to $90 mil. Focus on the rings, the home in Boca Raton, the Haitian community, the proximity to your homeland.

Dreams of a Norris Cole, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Samuel Dalembert starting five have us brimming with anticipation.

December 16: Seven days have now passed since the start of free agency. This is the final day in which teams can designate an amnesty candidate. Mike Miller is sweating profusely in his gorgeous West Palm Beach waterfront estate. He knows that for the Heat to have access to the full mid-level exception, he has to go.

Houston general manager Daryl Morey acknowledges that he is in negotiations with Dalembert. But he sounds conflicted. “We have interest in Sam. If it makes sense for him and us, we would love to have him. I think he’s somebody who could add presence in the middle, rebounding, shot blocking that could help us out. That said, I think our young guys are some guys that could develop and give us that as well.”

This is our chance. Riley strikes.

He reaches out to Sammy D one last time. He offers a guaranteed starting position in what now figures to be a much more up-tempo offense with Norris “No-No” Cole at the helm, and a full mid-level contract (four years, $21.4 million) to boot.

HTN of America, the full-time Haitian television network headquartered in Miami, offers Dalembert a lucrative TV contract. Radio R.C.H., the South Florida Haitian community radio station, simultaneously offers him a lucrative radio deal. ESPN propositions him for a commercial with Brett Favre mocking their infuriating indecision. None of this has anything to do with Pat Riley, of course.

Oh, and Riley informs Dalembert that if the offer is not accepted by end-of-day, the offer will drop to three years and $9.4 million (the “mini” mid-level exception).

***

What happens next we can only speculate.

Does Dalembert accept? Do Troy Murphy and Delonte West follow? Does Terrel Harris replace the now departed Mike Miller?

Where does Miller go? Does he clear amnesty waivers? Does he get swept up by the Bulls? the Knicks?

Does Dalembert reject? Do the Rockets, or perhaps the Kings on a one-year deal, then pony up bigger dollars for Sammy D?

Does the Heat roster remain as it is today – minus one Shane Battier, plus one Terrel Harris and one still unused “mini” mid-level exception? Does the Heat utilize that exception, or does it instead choose to recognize the $6 million in savings for this season and next, and as much as $14 million or more in the third? Does not using the exception provide the team the flexibility to make a run at a starting center next off-season?

It’s a conclusion that will never be written.