A Look Ahead to the 2010 NBA Draft
The Heat has four picks in the upcoming draft – the 18th pick in the first round, and the 41st, 42nd and 48th picks in the second round.
The three mid second round picks won’t provide much value. They hardly ever do. So let’s focus on the first rounder.
In this post I suggest that the best alternative for the Heat may be to swap it to a trade partner in exchange for a 2011 first round pick.
Why? Because the Heat needs every bit of its cap space in order to build a title contender. It’s certainly possible. Take a look at what $56.1 million can do.
The prospect of winning the Larry O’Brien trophy in just five months is certainly thrilling.
Wouldn’t it be even more thrilling to win the trophy next June and then enter the 2011 draft later in the month with two (or potentially three, should the Raptors make the playoffs) first round draft picks? Imagine the dynasty that could be created if those three first round picks were traded in exchange for just one lottery pick.
That’s what I see. It sounds all too perfect.
That is, unless the Heat can snag a game-changing talent here and now. The 2010 draft may just have a couple of those types of players, and both might just be worth selecting if available.
Eric Bledsoe: Point Guard, Kentucky Wildcats
Bledsoe figures to be this year’s Russell Westbrook lite. The freakishly athletic 6’1″ guard is as explosive a player as there is in the NBA, with a lightning quick first step that makes him almost impossible to stay in front of. That makes him a terror in transition and wonderful at breaking down a defense.
The problem is that, so far, he has no idea what to do from there. With projected No.1 overall pick John Wall running the point for the Wildcats, Bledsoe spent most of his freshman season playing off the ball and didn’t get much of a chance to develop his point guard skills. As a result, there are serious concerns about his decision-making. He didn’t show any play-making abilities and turned the ball over way too much in his lone season at Kentucky. All of which means that while he’s nominally a point guard, he has absolutely no idea how to run an offense. And despite posting some relatively strong numbers, his perimeter jump shot is still very much a work in progress, so playing off the ball isn’t the greatest alternative for him either.
But he’s only 19 years old. Experience should alleviate some of these concerns.
Despite his offensive limitations, Bledsoe’s true value lies at the other end of the floor. His freakish wingspan and superb lateral quickness suggest he has what it takes to be an elite defender at the next level. He could very quickly become the best defender at the point in the game. His suffocating, ball-hawking defense keeps opposing point guards from getting into their half court sets as well as from getting into the lane and breaking down the defense. He’s an active, athletic defender with freakishly long arms that enable him to rack up blocks, steals, and rebounds by the bunches.
Bledsoe’s stock appears to be all over the place. Some analysts suggest he is a certain lottery pick while others have him pegged as a clear-cut second round pick. Opinions about him vary greatly. Where he will be taken off the board is anyone’s guess.
Bledsoe is the unlimited upside pick. If and when he figures things out offensively, he’ll be absolutely impossible to guard. If he doesn’t, his ceiling will be as a solid defensive-minded backup.
As a potential member of the Miami Heat, Bledsoe would not be overly pressured to initiate offense (a task that ultimately falls to Dwyane Wade and hopefully LeBron James). Therefore, for the Heat, it’s really all about his ability to develop a consistent outside shot. If he’s ever able to do so, with the quality of defense he is already capable of playing, he’d be a surefire starter and a possible future All Star.
Paul George: Small Forward, Fresno State
George is all about an incredible upside. He wasn’t heavily recruited out of high school. He didn’t really dominate in his two years at Fresno State. He has never really been in any discussions about top players. He doesn’t have the cache of a Gordon Hayward, who led his Butler team to an incredible NCAA tournament run that fell one half court heave away from the ultimate goal. But he’s the best overall wing prospect in the draft. His game oozes solid play and big potential in just about every capacity.
At 6’9”, the 20-year-old is a long, smooth wing with natural scoring instincts. He is an elite athlete, possessing terrific quickness and tremendous leaping ability, which makes him dynamic in transition and a strong finisher at the rim in the half court set. His game, however, is actually predicated on his jump shot. It has unlimited range, and George’s sheer size, coupled with the elevation he gets, allows him to get it off whenever he pleases. Big wings who can shoot never go out of style.
When he’s not taking jump shots, he struggles. His shot is not nearly as effective off-the-dribble, which causes his overall shooting efficiency to dip. He also turns the ball over far too much. But, again, he’s only 20 years old.
The most impressive part of George’s pro game potential may very well be his defense – something he rarely showed at Fresno State. His outstanding size, length, lateral quickness and instincts give him the potential to develop into an elite wing defender. He can defend up to three positions at the NBA level, and is fully capable of impacting a game on that end. He rebounds, blocks, steals and provides solid off-the-ball defense. You name it, he’s got it.
George’s stock has been all over the place. In Chad Ford’s first mock draft at the beginning of the month, he went No. 28 to Memphis. In pre-draft workouts thus far, though, he’s been stellar, and his draft stock has risen accordingly. He now appears to be a mid-to-low lottery selection. He may not be available when the Heat selects at No. 18.
George has the talent to be a solid starter for the next decade, with the potential to be a perennial All-Star at some point in his career.
As a member of the Miami Heat, if he becomes an opening day starter, then something in free agency went wrong (i.e., the plan is clearly to have Wade and James at 2/3 positions). He could, however, quickly become the Heat’s go-to sixth man. And with his floor spacing and defensive capabilities, as well as his tremendous versatility, he could become a crunch-time regular.
If one of these two guys is available, the Heat should snag him.
If both are off the board, the Heat should trade the pick for a first rounder next year.