The NBA, unlike the NFL and NHL, has a “soft” salary cap. The basic rule of the NBA’s salary cap is that a team can’t sign a player (or make a trade) that leaves the team’s team salary above the cap, unless the team is using an exception.

In a system with a soft cap, exceptions are the mechanisms that allow teams to function while above the cap. Some exceptions are available only for making trades while other exceptions are available for signing players.

The most commonly used, and most widely known, exception is the Larry Bird exception. This exception allows teams to exceed the cap in order to re-sign their own free agents, up to the player’s maximum salary. Teams are said to have “Bird rights” to players who qualify.

LARRY BIRD EXCEPTION — To be qualified for this exception, a player must play for three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can qualify by playing under three consecutive one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any equivalent combination. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Larry Bird exception to re-sign him. These contracts can be up to six years in length, with raises up to 10.5% of the salary in the first season of the contract.  Read more…

Ok, I’ve given you a look at what the Heat could look like if it hung on to its draft picks. Now the more interesting – and highly controversial – “Undrafted Team.”

This is what the Heat roster could look like if it drafted wisely with each and every pick. The assumptions that underlie this analysis are incredibly ridiculous; this team simply wouldn’t have been possible. But it is fun, and fair, to view each pick individually to see how masterful (or pathetic) Pat Riley truly has been.

Since the 1999 NBA draft, the Heat has had a total of 19 selections, 7 first round and 12 second round picks. Here’s what they chose, and the other main options that were available.

Making selections is no easy task, even in retrospect. One needs to consider how each selection affects the rest of his roster. I’ve painstakingly analyzed all scenarios to put forth what I believe is the best possible hypothetical roster. It’s a star-studded lineup through and through.

I went with a league minimum 13-player roster due to salary reasons, but otherwise damn the costs. If Micky Arison can’t make piles of money with this lineup, then I’m moving to Oklahoma.

The costs aren’t absurd anyway. There are currently four N.B.A. teams with a higher payroll.

Read more…

Just for fun… Here’s what the current Miami Heat roster could look like if it consisted only of players it drafted.

Of course, this analysis is absurd because there are hundreds of different variables which would have changed to make such a team impossible. So don’t take it too seriously.

The Heat have only drafted 8 players that are either playing in the N.B.A. The Collective Bargaining Agreement stipulates a team must have a minimum of 13 players, so assumptions had to be made:

• I’ve included players to which draft rights are still held. That adds 1.
• I’ve included undrafted players first employed by the Heat. That adds 2.
• I’ve included min contract players currently employed by the Heat. That adds 2.

Total team salary: $54,185,315.

Let’s put that into perspective.

• It’s $18,566,736 cheaper than the current Heat team salary
• It would have saved Micky Arison $21,398,787 this season
• It would be the least expensive payroll in the N.B.A.
• It could have purchased Louisiana 3x over in 1803, with $9 million left over for haircuts

Is this team better than what Pat Riley is putting on the floor today? You decide.

Would it impact Pat Riley’s offseason plans? Well… accounting for everything, next season’s team could have a core of: Dorell Wright, Dwyane Wade, Caron Butler, Michael Beasley and Chris Bosh… And one less championship ring…

Collison has been playing splendid ball.

First-round draft pick Darren Collison was supposed to spend his rookie season watching and learning from the league’s best. But when Chris Paul went down with a left knee injury on January 29, Collison was prematurely thrust into a starting role for the New Orleans Hornets.

The short and slender guard has responded in a big way. Collison is just 6’0″ and 160 pounds but he plays much, much bigger than that. During New Orleans’ last 12 games, Paul has been sidelined in a suit and tie. In that time, Collison has averaged 20.6 points (on 48% shooting), 9.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals in 42 minutes per game.

The agile ball-handler with exceptional quickness has strung together a variety of highlight-worthy plays lately – everything from blow-by lay-ups to tough running floaters, breakaway dunks, clutch 3-pointers and pinpoint alley-oop lobs. His explosive first step and deep shooting range have caught the attention of many GMs around the league.

He does remain prone to rookie mistakes. Collison has turned the ball over 58 times during the 12-game stretch. But given how aggressively he plays and the fact that he’s just 22 years old, it is certainly something that can be tolerated and improved upon.

Read more…

Tuesday's game was a career best.

By keeping the still very young and greatly improved small forward at the trade deadline, the Heat showed a surprising and welcome commitment to 2004 first round draft pick Dorell Wright. The irony is that the more he pays off that commitment with success on the court, the more difficulty it causes.

On Tuesday night, Wright scored a career-high 26 points on 9-of-11 shooting, including an amazing 6-of-7 from beyond the arc. He also had 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals. It was far and away his best ever N.B.A. game. And he did it all in just 30 minutes of floor time.

Despite coach Spoelstra’s strange (to use a kind word) player rotations, Wright has become the unquestioned best small forward on the roster. Yes, he has struggled through inconsistent play at times – a natural result of inconsistent minutes – but he is proving to be exactly what Pat Riley has been searching for.

When the Heat signed James Jones in July 2008, he was dubbed as “a perfect fit” – a player who could space the floor for Dwyane Wade with his deadly 3-point shooting. But injuries have robbed him of precious floor time (and, apparently, nobody stopped to consider the awful 5-year, $23.2 million contract that eats into the Heat’s cap space this and the following two summers).

Wright has stepped up in a big way. He is the strong perimeter defender the Heat have for so many years been searching for, with the height and quickness to guard both guard and forward positions. He has shown flashes of the playmaking that had head coach Erik Spoelstra utilizing the 6’9″ player at the point. He’s always been an excellent rebounder and great natural athlete. And now, after years of hard work to improve an ugly shooting stroke that used to be released from well behind his head, he is becoming the Jones-like 3-point shooter that so well complements the slashing game of close personal friend Dwyane Wade. After converting a grand total of twelve 3-pointers in 55 attempts through his first five N.B.A. seasons, Wright has knocked down 37 this season, on 41.1% shooting.

Read more…

Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are all going to make the most amount of money allowed under N.B.A. rules, $16,568,908, when they sign their new free agent contracts in the offseason. Below is a brief review of how such maximum salaries are determined.

Maximum salaries are based on several factors, including the salary cap level, how long the player has been in the league and what his previous season’s salary was.

• A player with 0-6 years of service can make 25% of the salary cap* or $9,000,000, whichever is greater
• A player with 7-9 years of service can make 30% of the salary cap* or $11,000,000, whichever is greater
• A player with 10+ years of service can make 35% of the salary cap* or $14,000,000, whichever is greater

However, a free agent’s maximum salary in the first year of a new contract is never less than 105% of his salary in the last year of his previous contract. For example, a ten-year veteran free agent who most recently earned $20 million has a maximum salary of $21 million, even if that is above the league-wide maximum.

James, Wade and Bosh will have 7 years of N.B.A. service at season’s end. They would therefore be eligible to receive the greatest of: (i) 30% of the salary cap, (ii) $11,000,000 or (iii) 105% of their previous season’s salary in the first season of a new contract (assuming they each exercise their option to cancel the final season of their current contract). Since the salary cap is projected to fall next season and since they are each making $15,779,913 this season, option (iii) above will be the greatest. And that’s how the $16,568,908 is calculated.

In multi-year contracts, only the first season’s salary is subject to the maximum salary rules, but there are restrictions about how big raises can be from year to year. N.B.A. rules give the home team a financial advantage when it comes to re-signing its own players. The starting salary is the same no matter where a player signs (as described above), but the home team can offer one more contract year (six instead of five) and bigger annual raises (10.5% instead of 8.0%). This is what is often referred to as “Bird rights.” This is also why you may have heard that James, Wade and Bosh can make ~$30 million more by staying with their existing clubs.

It should be noted that over the first five years of a home team offer would total $100.2 million, which isn’t too far away from $96.1 million. Unless they suffer a catastrophic injury, these players will make a large salary in 2015/16 no matter where they sign – so locking in that sixth season now simply provides additional peace of mind.

* The salary cap calculation used to determine maximum contracts is slightly different than the one you’re used to seeing (based on 48.04% of projected basketball-related income, or BRI, vs. the more commonly referred to 51.0%).

Here’s a look at the contracts James, Wade and Bosh will choose between in the offseason:

The trade deadline did little to clarify the picture for where the members of the upcoming prized free agent class might ultimately end up.

The Cavs did a lot to convince Lebron James, the single most coveted free agent to be in recent history, that the present could be bright. Despite an 0-3 record since his arrival, Antawn Jamison was the coveted stretch forward the Cavs believe is the missing piece in its push for an N.B.A. title. But they did less to convince LeBron that his future in Cleveland is equally bright. Jamison turns 34 in June, and has two years and $28 million due to him after this season. With a front line that also includes 37-year old Shaquille O’Neal, the Cavs have offered no assurances that this team can stay at an elite level in the not so distant future.

The Raptors stayed quiet at the trade deadline, which was music to ears of Toronto fans considering most every trade scenario involved Chris Bosh. The team is committed to building a contender around Bosh. But as a middle-of-the-pack eastern conference team operating above the salary cap, GM Brian Colangelo has limited room with which to maneuver. When factoring in that the $30 million additional guaranteed money that Bosh could earn by re-signing with his existing ball-club would be near zero when figuring in the incremental Canadian tax rate, Bosh has plenty to think about.

The Heat also stayed quiet at the trade deadline, staying true to Pat Riley’s plan to maximize its 2010/11 cap space. It was perhaps the best possible, albeit riskiest, alternative. The Heat had its opportunities but was apparently unwilling to part with its most valuable trade asset – Michael Beasley. It need be said that Miami also chose to bypass a third 2010 first-round pick, which would have been the team’s best, at the trade deadline and forgo $7 million in luxury-tax savings by holding onto Dorell Wright and his expiring contract… something I did not agree with on multiple levels (but this is a story for another day). So, little has changed in South Florida. Heat management and fans alike are holding their collective breath, desperately hoping the allure of playing alongside Dwyane Wade in sunny South Florida is enough to convince James or Bosh to sign on the dotted line. If not, Wade – and the Heat’s fortunes – could quickly disappear.

Read more…

With the February 18th trade deadline now passed with Miami standing pat, the hope for the Heat of tomorrow rests firmly in the coming offseason. Riley has staked his reputation on Miami’s ability to produce a championship caliber product through what will be one of the most talented free agent markets in league history.

Exactly how much cap space the Heat will have is a subject of much confusion. There have been many figures published, showing numbers anywhere from $12 million to more than twice that figure. What’s the true number? Well, that depends…

Here is a look at the Heat’s salary commitments for the 2010/11 season (footnotes below):

Dwyane Wade: $16,568,908 (1)

Michael Beasley: $4,962,240

Daequan Cook: $2,169,857

James Jones: $1,856,000 (2)

Joel Anthony: $885,120 (3)

Mario Chalmers: $0 (4)

First Round Draft Picks: $0 (5)

Roster Charge: $4,262,436 (6)

Total Salary: $30,704,561

Remember this figure: $30,704,561.

It represents the committed player salaries going into this summer’s free agent market. Subtract $30,704,561 from whatever amount the salary cap comes in at, and you’ll end up with the amount of cap space Pat Riley has to spend on free agents and draft picks.

In 2009 the cap dropped from $58.7 million to $57.7 million, accompanied by a warning from the league to the teams of a projected revenue drop in the range of 2.5% to 5.0% for the 2009/10 season. This would result in a 2010/11 cap in the range of $50.4 million to $53.6 million. Mid-season returns have led to a revised projection that is in the higher end of this range, so the best estimate at this time is $53 million to $54 million (see Forecasting/Salary Cap Calculator to see exactly how the NBA calculates the salary cap).

With a $54 million cap, the Heat would have $23,295,439 in spending power to build around a Wade and Beasley core. With that money, the Heat could add a second max contract player and a player making $7.2 million before it runs out of cap space. Once all cap space is gone, Miami would only be able to sign players to minimum contracts. Read more…

Offseason Plan A is for Pat Riley & Co. is quite simple.

1. Sign Lebron James (or Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire).
2. Re-sign Dwyane Wade.
3. Sign a $7 million player to boot, or parlay Michael Beasley into a $12 million player.
4. Convince talented players to sign for the league minimum in order to win multiple rings.

But what happens if Plan A falls apart? What happens if Riley’s plan backfires and Lebron, Bosh and Stoudemire commit elsewhere? With the Cavs getting significantly better at the trade deadline, the Knicks creating more than $30 million of cap space and various other teams poised to make a big splash in the offseason, the Heat is holding its collective breath. One needs to at least acknowledge the possibility of getting frozen out. Read more…

Daequan Cook has improved his shot of late (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

Rafer Alston once again proved in Tuesday’s blowout Heat victory in Philadelphia that he may be best utilized as a spectator. Yes, he is the team’s best defender at the position. But I don’t put much stock in his so-called leadership. The team receives its on-court leadership from Dwyane Wade. And his offense has been atrocious. Alston is shooting just 36% from the floor since being signed by the Heat, averaging 7.2 points, 2.9 assists and 1.5 turnovers.

The Heat’s starting unit already has a play-maker in Dwyane Wade. It doesn’t need these qualities in its point guard. What it needs is a floor spacing outside shooter who can bring the ball up the floor in non-critical situations — a Mo Williams if you will. Thirty-three-year-old Rafer Alston is a sub-par shooter, and it has a tendency to destroy the unit’s offensive efficiency. At what point does the statute of limitations run out, and Alston get evaluated based on his play?

With every passing game, it seems more and more evident that the Heat should at least experiment with a starting rotation that includes Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright or both. These are players that are part of the team’s future, and have shown flashes of ability perform at a high level.

I should also mention that in the 6 minutes of floor time James Jones was given, he converted his only 3-point shot. He’s now shooting 43% from distance on the season. Perhaps it’s time for Spoelstra to give significant minutes to the players that have salary commitments that run into next season.