It’s back, baby!

After 196 days of withdrawal, anticipation, lockouts, light-hearted twitter declarations by rightfully beloved owners, and over-reaching punishments by an overly eager commissioner, life is back as it should be.

Tomorrow, at 2:30 pm, we get Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh in a game that matters. We get to settle in, grab some turkey, crack open a beer, and, that’s right, watch some NBA basketball.

You may have cursed the players. You may have cursed the owners. You may have considered quitting the game altogether. You may have forgotten what it looked like, sounded like, felt like. It all seems like a distant memory now.

But the lockout, the one that was supposed to wipe out the entire 2011-12 season, is over.

Forget the “nuclear winter” references. There’s no more need for nifty marketing tricks by a league that threatened to undermine itself during the offseason. No need to feign interest in tired exhibition games or world tours.

We’re past trying to convince ourselves that hockey is an acceptable replacement. Past trying to rely upon one lousy game of football every seven days to carry us through.

We’ve past hearing that damn phrase “basketball-related-income,” as it relates to how many dollars the players should be pocketing. Past hearing about the struggles of those poor owners trying to make ends meet. Past the audit reports, the tax forms, the lawsuits, Dwyane Wade and David Stern lashing out at each other from across the board room table.

We’re past trying to convince ourselves that all those hours we had free from the sport would somehow pour, seamlessly, into making us better people, more learned, the kind who understand what the hell is going on in the world and can start to appreciate the finer things in life. Now things are, thankfully, back to normal; all attempts at self-improvement will have to work themselves around the NBA schedule.

It’s time to start training that one eye to keep constant watch on the flow of the game, while the other peeks over at those half-naked cheerleaders. It’s time to start utilizing the halftime break as a means to scout the talent around you. It’s time to celebrate, say, 49 home victories with 20,000 of your closest strangers. It’s time to crank up those DVRs.

Sure, the now-settled labor dispute will, without a doubt, make the season more challenging. An entire offseason’s worth of predictions, rumors, scouting, speculation, signings, trades, injuries, scandals, practice and training have all been crammed into three short weeks. The compacted 66-game schedule will require every team to play games at a pace of more than one every two days, including games on three consecutive days at least once.

As a result, there will be sloppy play. There will be fluctuating intensity. There will be injuries. But those challenges only heighten the thrill of accomplishment.

Which brings us to the Miami Heat.

Even without a title, the 2010-11 season, from beginning to end, was some of the most compelling theater we’ve ever witnessed as sports fans.

This year is going to be better.

Norris Cole is going to deliver the breakout season we already know he’s capable of. His quick first step will push the tempo offensively and make the game faster, more thrilling, and harder to defend. His dogged defense is going to be exactly what this team needs.

D-Wade, Bron and CB1 are going to find a way to simultaneously extract the best of each other. Joel Anthony is, well, a lost cause (let’s not get carried away).

Coach Spo is going to show confidence in his second unit, and they’re going to deliver in a big way. Terrel Harris and Mickell Gladness are going to reward their president with spectacular play. James Jones is going to hit that playoff-game-winning three; won’t that be sweet redemption.

This time, we will not be denied. This time, we will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Tip-off is less than twenty-four hours away. This is our time. This is our stage. Let’s get motivated. Let’s get this thing done.

Pat Riley has built himself a perennial powerhouse here in South Florida. The Miami Heat was the title favorite heading into last season, is the title favorite heading into this season, and figures to remain that way into the foreseeable future.

But this is not a team without its issues. It has flaws. Big ones.

When Riley assembled the three-headed monster of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last season, the majority of the NBA world thought the trio would be unstoppable. While the Heat did make the NBA Finals, the team was far from as dominant as most thought they would be.

The new-look Heat appeared constantly disjointed in its first season together. Much of it was attributed to the growing pains of a superstar trio learning how to co-exist. Things were supposed to be much more fluid this time around. That goal has yet to materialize.

Starting point guard Mario Chalmers has progressed nicely, but is hardly the type that can be relied upon to run the Heat’s half court offense. He’s never been much of an initiator, and so when he’s not knocking down his shots it’s difficult to justify playing him at all.

Starting power forward Chris Bosh still looks uncomfortable trying to acclimate to his new role. Of Miami’s three stars, Bosh has been forced to concede the most. James and Wade function as initiators of the offense, while Bosh has been used primarily as a spot-up shooter on the weak side. That’s a significant concession for a star like Bosh, who’s accustomed to not only more offensive involvement, but also to having a system tailor-made to his strengths.

Starting center Joel Anthony is, well, Joel Anthony. At just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best), he is a woefully undersized center in a league of giants which, along with hands of stone, makes rebounding the basketball a virtual impossibility. And any defensive value you may think he provides is more than offset by the fact that he is the single worst offensive player in basketball. The numbers bear that out. Last season, Miami gave up one point fewer per 100 possessions with Joel on the court, but they scored three points more with him off of it.

The team as a whole, despite averaging 109 points per game this preseason, due in part to its new transition-oriented mentality, has yet to find a consistent, reliable half court offense.

That has left the Heat where they hoped they wouldn’t have to reside this season, largely counting on LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to handle the heavy lifting.

Despite the championship aspirations, Riley can’t feel too good about the lack of a veteran point guard or a consistent low-post threat. Rumor has it that he is still maneuvering to address those needs.

But the team has precious little time and precious few resources with which to materially improve. The season begins in two days. And, as currently structured, the Heat is already $11 million over next season’s luxury tax threshold (assuming a 14-man roster filled out with the team’s first round draft pick and minimum salary veterans).

Is it time to at least consider a potential trade?

The majority of us would presumably welcome a trade, but only if it centers around the untenable contract of either Joel Anthony or Mike Miller. In the world of professional basketball, though, you can’t trade garbage for gold. When you talk trade, you’ve got to be willing to give up as much as you get.

Anthony’s contract would be exceedingly difficult to move. A rejuvenated Mike Miller offers a bit more intrigue, but at age 31 and as an extreme health risk, such a proposition looks equally daunting, particularly when considering that he still has another four seasons remaining on his contract, he pulls in roughly $6 million per, and he has a 15% trade kicker which, by league rules, he cannot waive.

So if a trade is to materialize, where is it going to come from?

Breaking up Wade and James is a non-starter. It simply won’t happen.

Here is one man’s vision for taking the Miami Heat from perennial powerhouse to perhaps the best team in league history:

Suggested Trade Proposal
Miami Heat trade: Norris Cole and Chris Bosh
Phoenix Suns trade: Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat

Realistic? Why not?

The lottery-bound Phoenix Suns are currently trapped in a vortex of indecision. The team has developed a somewhat reasonable core of youthful talent but still remains one of the oldest rotations in the league, thanks to a pair of wildly popular thirty-something starters in Nash and Grant Hill, each of whom figures to be playing in his last season in the Valley of the Sun. The Suns are a team going nowhere fast, and are hardly an attractive free agent destination for upper echelon talent.

The proposed trade would place the Suns’ rebuilding strategy into overdrive.

Despite his decline in productivity last season, due exclusively to his role as third option in the Heat’s less than stellar half court offense, Chris Bosh is still every bit the man we thought he was just one season ago – among the best power forwards in the game today, the likes of whom the Suns may never be able to attract on the open market. He his young. He is quick. He is a bankable 23/10 guy on his own, and someone head coach Alvin Gentry can structure an entire offense around if he were so inclined. The Suns sorely lack such a player.

Norris Cole is a solid young point guard who has thus far wildly exceeded even the rosiest of expectations with his scintillating play, and is set to earn just above the league minimum for nearly half a decade. He likes to play at pace, which fits perfectly within Gentry’s offensive philosophy. For a Suns team that has no natural replacement for Nash (with restricted free agent Aaron Brooks stuck in China, and set to command a hefty pay increase when he returns), Cole could be a perfect fit.

The Suns could thus start anew with a youthful core centered around guards Cole and Jared Dudley, forwards Bosh and rookie Markieff Morris, and centers Robin Lopez and Channing Frye… and still have as much as $22 million under the salary cap with which to work next off-season (before dealing with restricted free agent Lopez and assuming Childress were to be amnestied).

Not too bad a haul in return for a guy who’s about to walk away for nothing, and another who figures to split his minutes under the basket yet again this season before walking away for nothing the season after.

In return, Riley gets everything he ever wanted.

1. He gets a top-notch, veteran point guard who complements the offense perfectly.

Despite his advanced age, Nash remains the gold standard for a point guard. He is perhaps the best in the game today at breaking down a defense and creating shots for his teammates. He is a genius pick-and-roll operator who shreds defenses with passes from either hand. He is one of best outside shooters in league history, and the single best free throw shooter in league history. Nash can create his own shot in times of need, but prefers to distribute the ball and set up as a weak-side shooter. Perfect.

Best of all, Nash commands respect from even the game’s greats as the unquestioned leader of his offense and, in turn, has never been one to allow it to stagnate.

2. He gets a dominating low post presence.

How would Gortat look in a Heat uniform? He’s huge, he’s athletic, he’s among the best pick-and-roll operators around, he’s got a strong post game, he’s got a soft touch around the rim, he’s got good range on his jump shot, he’s a solid post defender, and he’s a beast on the boards. Is there a more perfect fit for this Miami Heat team, outside of Dwight Howard, in the whole of the NBA?

Gortat, who had always displayed tough defense and rebounding behind Dwight Howard, finally got a chance to prove that his fantastic per-minute numbers could be sustained in extended minutes. After a trade sent him to Phoenix, he was one of the game’s best big men, averaging 15.3 points (on 57% shooting), 10.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks after the All-Star break. The so-called “Polish Hammer” is, quite simply, the most underrated player in the game today… a future All-Star on a ridiculously attractive contract.

3. He gets to present his owner, Micky Arison, with massive savings.

It’s not yet clear how the Heat can cope financially with being a repeat tax team, but the way they’ve built their roster virtually assures them of being one. It’s going to be very hard for Miami to stay in contention without being a repeat tax offender, but that status will be dealt with very harshly by this collective bargaining agreement.

Tax rates have significantly increased, from the old rate of dollar-for-dollar to progressively higher rates that begin in 2012-13 at: (i) $1.50 per dollar for the first $5 million a team is over the tax threshold, (ii) increasing to $1.75 per dollar for the $5-10 million increment, (iii) increasing to $2.50 per dollar for the $10-15 million increment, (iv) increasing to $3.25 per dollar for the $15-20 million increment, and (v) increasing an additional $0.50 for every further $5 million increment. In addition, a $1 “repeater tax” will be added on for any team that is a taxpayer in the current as well as any three of the previous four seasons covered by the new collective bargaining agreement.

Even with their stars, the Heat can’t offset this tax hit with the revenues of an L.A. or New York.

How dire is the financial situation for the Heat? Joel’s modest $3.8 million salary in 2014-15 currently figures to cost the team between $17.1 and $20.0 million after incorporating the tax. The cost of any new additions could be up to $5.25 or more for every dollar given out via a contract offer. That means that under the current construct, the spending likely stops completely. Now. No full mid-level exception next season. No mini mid-level exception either.

From a monetary perspective, the proposed trade produces about even dollars flowing in and out for this season. But that’s not the whole picture. If Nash were to indicate a willingness to sign a new contract in the off-season (he’s not eligible to be extended) starting at, say, the value of the mid-level exception for room teams, the Heat would transform itself from being $11 million over the tax threshold next season to as much as $5 million below it (again assuming a 14-man roster).

Why is that important?

For one, it provides the Heat with access to the full mid-level exception in July in order to bolster the thinned-out power forward rotation, when such names as Brandon Bass, Carl Landry, Kevin Garnett, Kris Humphries, Michael Beasley, and Ryan Anderson (a personal favorite) all become free agents.

Of course, that’s still a season away. In the meantime, it stands to reason that Kenyon Martin, who spends a lot of his offseason time in South Florida and around Heat players, might wish to sign on to add quality depth to the power forward rotation for this season’s playoff push. Martin can’t shake free from his Chinese Basketball Association obligations until March, at which point any NBA contract he does sign will be prorated to the point that monetary concerns may not be a significant factor. A rest-of-season minimum contract, accompanied by significant minutes for a surefire title contender, in sunny Miami might sound quite nice to the soon-to-be 34 year old.

For another, even after utilizing the mid-level exception (and the team’s first round draft pick), the proposed construct could potentially still not be a taxpaying team next season. That’s got to get Micky salivating.

Here’s a look at the construct:

If Riley were not so inclined to stay below the tax threshold, and they sure do not appear to be today, the Heat would have two additional opportunities.

First, the Heat could do exactly as described above and have access to the then $2.0 million bi-annual exception, which would enable the team to potentially shore up its depth at either the shooting guard (perhaps free-agent-to-be Ray Allen) or point guard (perhaps free-agent-to-be Kirk Hinrich) position. Such a team would project to be just $2 million over the tax threshold.

Second, the Heat could do exactly as described above and retain Mike Miller (as well as the amnesty provision for later use), but would need to replace their full mid-level exception with a mini mid-level exception. Such a team would project to be just $5 million over the tax threshold.

The cost for the Heat would be steep, with Cole’s huge upside potential still completely untapped.

But think of the result.

Dreams of a Steve Nash, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Udonis Haslem and Marcin Gortat starting five should have you salivating. Add to that a bench that features Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Shane Battier, Kenyon Martin, and Joel Anthony for this season, as well as both a full mid-level exception and first round draft pick (and a bi-annual exception if the team were so inclined) for next season, and even the smallest of hesitations should be wiped away.

The Nash/Gortat pick-and-roll would create an entirely new and distinct source of offense for the Heat, completely eliminating the team’s over-reliance on its duo of future Hall of Famers. You may be surprised to know that the Nash/Gortat tandem was the single most effective pick-and-roll combination in the entire league after the All Star break last season. That’s a bankable half-court offense in its own right, even before contemplating a now freed-up Wade and James slashing to the basket while it’s happening.

Imagine how much finally having a legitimate low post scoring threat in Gortat would open up the offense. Imagine the Nash-to-Gortat pick-and-rolls. Imagine the Wade-to-Gortat alley-oops. Imagine Nash penetrating through the heart of the defense and tossing a fancy no-look pass to a slashing LeBron. Imagine Dwyane driving to the basket and kicking out for a wide open Nash three-pointer. Imagine Wade and James not having to constantly fight through double and triple teams. Imagine the offensive rebounds. Oh, the offensive rebounds!

The permutations under such a construct are limited only by the mind’s imagination.

This team would become, in one hyphenated word, un-guardable.

It’s difficult to imagine the defense would suffer much either. Nash, by no means a quality defender, is certainly no worse than was last season’s starter Mike Bibby. Haslem, by all accounts, is both a defensive and rebounding improvement over Bosh. Gortat is the massive penetration-killing ogre down low that Riley has sought out for the better part of two years now. And the bench would be littered with a perfect blend of top-notch defenders (i.e., Battier, Martin, Anthony) and knock-down shooters (i.e., Chalmers, Miller, Jones).

One could argue that defense doesn’t matter all that much anyway, for a team made up of five starters who each shoot 50% from the field or better (as per last season), has added a ton of offensive rebounding, has added a point guard capable of managing an efficient half court offense, and already has the game’s best transition offense.

All of this, plus a first round draft pick and access to both the full mid-level and bi-annual exceptions next season.

That’s the vision anyway.

It just makes too much sense not to consider. That is, when it becomes possible. Norris Cole, having executed his contract on December 10th, cannot be traded until January 9th. The hairline fracture in Gortat’s right thumb should heal quite nicely by then.

Update: 12/30: Fesenko, who had previously agreed to terms with the Warriors, won’t be signed by the team. He is still available. 

Update 12/22: The Heat is now pursuing Fesenko, along with the Warriors, Pistons and Clippers. One week too late?

Well… Heat president Pat Riley decided to pass on the Samuel Dalembert risk/reward proposition.

But starting center Joel Anthony is still just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best). He is still woefully undersized center in a league of giants. And any defensive value you may think he provides is still more than offset by the fact that he is quite possibly the single worst offensive player in basketball.

The Heat would be wise to take a good hard look at the deeply flawed 7-foot-1-inch unrestricted free agent Kyrylo Fesenko.

A second-round pick (38th overall) by the Philadelphia 76ers in 2007, Fesenko was flipped to Utah for Herbert Hill in a draft day trade. He has appeared in just 132 games in four seasons for the Jazz.

The 280-pound Ukranian is probably never going to be an offensive force. He’s an abysmal foul shooter, he’s clumsy, and he has no shooting range or balls skills. For his career, he’s averaged just 2.3 points and 2.0 rebounds in 8.3 minutes per game.

You’re probably reading this and thinking, “Seriously?” But here’s what the stats don’t tell you: he is a stout defender.

The best-kept secret in the NBA right now is Fesenko’s monstrous defensive stats.

According to Synergy Sports, Fesenko gave up a mere .716 points per play last season, ranking him in the 96th percentile among all NBA players. Of all players that had at least 150 defensive plays last season, Fesenko ranked fourth in the league in points per play allowed.

Opponents shot a mere 34.2% against Fesenko and, while he’s still susceptible to post-up situations, he excelled against the pick-and-roll and especially in spot-up situations where players had to shoot over his long frame. Fesenko owns a 7-foot-4 wingspan and a 9-foot-4 standing reach (the same standing reach as Greg Oden).

It’s not just the individual stats. The team stats were equally impressive. Last season, the Jazz’s defense was 10 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor (102.5 points) than when he was off it (112.5 points). The season before, it was 9.

The Jazz outscored their opponents by an average of 4.1 points with Fesenko on the court, and were outscored by their opponents by 2.6 points with him off of it.

Synergy Sports rated Fesenko as the second-best defender in the entire league least season, among players who faced at least 150 opponent plays. The season before, he was first.

Despite his  size, Fesenko doesn’t block a ton of shots or dominate the glass. He just uglies up the game for opponents with his sheer hugeness, particularly because he moves his feet fairly well for his size.

The downside is that he is exceptionally foul prone, averaging a foul per every five minutes on the floor for his career, which has limited his playing time. But nobody knows how much that excessive foul rate will improve with consistent playing time. And on a team like the Heat, it doesn’t really matter anyway. A foul every five minutes equates to roughly 30 minutes of playing time per game. That’s more than enough of a contribution, particularly with Joel Anthony as a serviceable alternative should he foul out more quickly on any given night.

Defensive positioning, free throw shooting, and ball skills can be coached. Possessing size roughly equivalent to Rhode Island cannot.

And he can still get better. He’s never come close to reaching his potential. He’ll turn 25 just before the start of the season, which suggests he’s got plenty of time.

If given consistent minutes, it stands to reason that he could learn how to play without fouling so much, and become known as one of the top low-post defenders in the league. And there is no franchise in the league with less incumbent talent at the position to challenge him in that quest for minutes than the Heat.

Fesenko doesn’t fit within the Riley mold.

He’s a foreigner.

Riley back in May of last year: “I like the homegrown product, I just do. I feel comfortable with it. And maybe somewhere in free agency or via some trades, we may have missed somewhere along the line, but I just felt I just like the players here.”

He’s also young, and severely lacking in experience.

Riley in June of this year: “I don’t think you win championships with young, athletic players that don’t have experience. I think we’ve learned over the years that building with young players is very frustrating.”

But given the lack of resources or tradable talent, the franchise needs to get creative.

The asking price for Fesenko is as low as it will ever be – artificially so because he tore the meniscus in his left knee while playing for the Ukraine in early September, the worst possible timing for a first-time unrestricted free agent to be. The damage required surgery, and a two-month recovery period thereafter.

Fesenko is now (presumably) fully recovered, and looking for an opportunity.

Utah has a logjam in its frontcourt. Derrick Favors, the third overall pick in the 2010 draft, will be competing with Enes Kantor, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, for minutes at power forward. The recently healed Mehmet Okur will be competing with the recently acquired Al Jefferson for minutes at center. Fesenko appears expendable.

The timing therefore appears ideal for the Heat.

Nobody knows for sure what Fesenko can regularly produce because he’s never been given consistent minutes. Assuming his knee has healed, perhaps he can give the Heat the defensive presence down low that they have so desperately craved.

If Juwan Howard (who wasn’t terribly essential, or even all that useful if we’re being honest) is deserving of a second minimum salary contract, then certainly Kyrylo Fesenko is worthy of similar consideration at an equivalent price. If the guy’s a dud, no harm no foul.

For 20-25 minutes a night, it’s a low-risk, big-reward proposition.

Update 12/21: Dalembert ultimately agreed to a two-year $13.7 million contract with the lottery-bound Rockets. The Heat were in position to offer four years and $21.4 million.  

There were several reasons why the Miami Heat were beaten by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals six months ago. First and foremost, the Mavs were pretty damn impressive.

But the Heat did have its issues. Some the front office couldn’t really address. What happened to LeBron James is something he’s got to deal with on his own. What happened in the trenches, well, that the Heat could’ve done something about.

Riley said at the end of last season, “We would like to get size. We would like to get length. Joel Anthony has done an incredible job and he will get better. But we’d like to get size.”

It looks like the Heat has failed in its top offseason priority.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks have added 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler to a frontline that already features Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. The Nets are angling to pair incumbent point guard Deron Williams with Dwight Howard. And the Bulls’ Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah combined to average 20 rebounds per game in the conference finals last year, nearly doubling up the output of Heat starting big men Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony. What was once difficult to mask is now getting nearly impossible.

It was always going to be tough. While the center market this year was much deeper than usual, the Heat had limited ways to attract one. Dreams of Nene Hilario, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, or Tyson Chandler were patently ridiculous. The team had the means and opportunity to utilize the full $5 million mid-level exception. The hope was that it would be enough to attract the likes of Samuel Dalembert. But those hopes were obliterated when Dalembert announced his intention to chase the big payday.

Rather than exercise patience in an otherwise uncertain market, complicated by a truncated free agency period and unknown amnesty implications, the Heat went out and committed itself to nearly $24 million in free agent contracts on the first day possible, soaring past the luxury tax threshold where the new collective bargaining agreement rules limit their ability to improve their roster.

Was it the right decision?

It is an exceedingly difficult task to prognosticate what might have happened had history been altered to reflect a different reality. In this particular situation, though, it becomes a heck of a lot easier because the Heat didn’t do all that much.

They signed Shane Battier. That’s it.

So the only question you need to ask yourself (and answer honestly, without the benefit of hindsight) is: Would you rather have Shane Battier, or the possibility of signing Samuel Dalembert even though he has already rejected you in favor of the bigger payday?

That’s the very question Pat Riley and his crew faced on December 9.

No general manager likes to be held hostage at the whim of a player, particularly one who doesn’t necessarily possess game-changing talent. It is certainly understandable that Riley chose to move on. Shane Battier will help this team.

The 33-year-old’s mobility has slipped half a notch, so he isn’t the elite stopper he was a few years ago. But his intelligence as a defender still causes headaches for bigger wing players. Nobody is more successful at baiting opponents into shooting contested 20-footers, yet Battier combines that with an off-ball awareness to be in the right spot to take charges or block shots.

Offensively, Battier’s main weapon is the corner 3. In that regard, he is quite similar to incumbent small forward James Jones – albeit with far less proficiency, and with a low and slow release that he can be run off of.

But Battier is, for better or worse, now one of four Heat small forwards. And any minutes he gets will come at the expense of Jones, who is already inexplicably under-utilized. Maybe, just maybe, a six month hiatus has masked the severity of the problem at center.

Starting center Joel Anthony stands just 6-feet, 9-inches tall (at best). He is a woefully undersized center in a league of giants which, along with hands of stone, makes rebounding the basketball a virtual impossibility. And any defensive value you may think he provides is more than offset by the fact that he is quite possibly the single worst offensive player in basketball.

Last season, Miami gave up one point fewer per 100 possessions with Joel on the court, but they scored three points more with him off of it. Miami outscored their opponents by an average of 4.1 points per 48 minutes with Joel on the court, but they outscored their opponents by 9.4 points with him off of it. In fact, his on-court/off-court differential was the worst of all Heat centers (yes, that includes Dampier, Magloire, Ilgauskas and Pittman). When you type in his name on YouTube, it auto-corrects to “Joel Anthony Airball Dunk,” which leads to this video.

Can the Heat win with Joel Anthony? Sure. They proved that last season.

But he is not the answer. And while Eddy Curry does provide a certain degree of intrigue, a string of injuries, an irregular heartbeat, a penchant for eating, a lack of conditioning, and a propensity for laziness would suggest he is hardly a reliable option to eat up minutes down low. Dexter Pittman could well be the future, but he’s given no indication that his game is NBA ready as yet.

Samuel Dalembert is by no means a perfect solution.

His shooting numbers regressed considerably last season after a fluke 2009-10 campaign, and it appeared poor conditioning was partly to blame. As per usual, he didn’t shoot all that well from close range thanks to a lack of strength and poor finishing instincts. He’s also a miserable caretaker of the basketball.

But is he a perfect solution for this team?

The 30-year-old nine-year veteran can still board like nobody’s business. Dalembert’s 16.3 rebounds per 48 minutes last season was good for fourth in the entire NBA (after Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, and Kris Humphries; ahead of Tyson Chandler, Blake Griffin, and everyone else you can think of). This is not a new trend. He was third the season before, and fifth the season before that.

Dalembert has value on defense too, solidifying the middle with his length, mobility, and shot-blocking skills (where he’s been a top-15 contributor per 48 minutes his entire career).

Offensively, he’s not a post threat. But he’s a strong mid-range shooter who scoops up garbage points and hits his free throws. His athleticism and ability to run the floor would presumably also lead to numerous alley-oop dunks in an uptempo offensive system.

His desire to play for the Heat reflects his conflicted mind. On November 27, Dalembert told Fox Sports Florida’s Chris Tomasson that joining the Heat “would be fantastic.” But ten days later, he told Tomasson that the notion of playing for the Heat at mid-level money “would be tough.”

With this in mind, let’s try to prognosticate an alternate reality for the Heat:

December 8: Dalembert makes clear to Riley his intention to pursue a bigger-money contract than the Heat can afford.

December 9: Free agency officially begins. Riley passes on Shane Battier. Mario Chalmers and James Jones ink their three year deals (the former at $4.5 million and the latter at $12 million, subject to a team option on the third year). Norris Cole signs his rookie scale contract.

Riley goes on national TV and preaches the value of continuity. Mike Miller, however, is privately panicking over the possibility of being amnestied.

December 10: Juwan Howard and Eddy Curry sign their one-year minimum salary contracts (the latter non-guaranteed). Local beat writers report that the team has now filled 13 of its 15 total roster spots. Not so inept in their own right, however, the beat writers figure out what’s going on. The Heat is keeping the full mid-level exception in its arsenal.

The speculation around Dalembert mounts. The city starts going crazy with anticipation. The tension is palpable. Blog sites authored by self-proclaimed salary cap experts explode with commenters.  “Sammy D” billboards start popping up all around the city. The Haitian community throws a “Sammy D” parade. Local ice cream parlors change the name of their chocolate offerings to “Sammy D Double Double Chocolate Delight.”

December 11: Chauncey Billups is amnestied by the Knicks. The Heat, who lack a veteran presence at the point guard position, are tempted. But they can do nothing about it.

December 13: Four days have now passed since the start of free agency. Dalembert’s potential suitors are dwindling. The Knicks have signed Tyson Chandler. The Raptors have signed Jamaal Magoire and Aaron Grey. The Nuggets have agreed to terms with Nene Hilario. The Mavericks have traded for Lamar Odom. The Nets are focused exclusively on Dwight Howard. The Rockets remain a viable option, but only after having their deal for Pau Gasol get rejected by Commissioner David Stern (as part of the controversial Chris Paul trade to the Lakers) and their max contract offer to his brother get topped by the Grizzlies.

The Heat front office is bristling with anticipation. But business is business. Riley still has two roster spots to fill. The hope is that Sammy D fills one. If he does, Mike Miller becomes an amnesty casualty. That leaves two more spots to fill. The team engages in conversation with a potential replacement for Miller – Michael Redd, an alternative in case Dalembert doesn’t work out – Kyrylo Fesenko, in a world where the Heat didn’t hastily sign Juwan Howard – Troy Murphy, and in a world in which he didn’t sleep with LeBron’s mom – Delonte West.

December 15: The Heat hosts its annual training camp scrimmage. Norris Cole kills it. He’s mesmerizing. We are all blown away. We simply didn’t see this coming. Cole looks every bit the point guard of the future. In Pat, we trust!

Cole isn’t the only one turning heads. After scoring 17 points in the scrimmage, Terell Harris is making a strong case for why it would make sense to keep the young talent. For a team without a true backup two-guard, the 24-year-old’s polished three-point range and athletic wing defense is a welcome revelation. With as many as three roster spots available, his performance against the Magic on Saturday becomes a huge measuring stick. A strong performance all but assures him a roster spot.

The void at center, however, is significant. Joel Anthony is, well, Joel Anthony. Eddy Curry looks bloated. Dexter Pittman looks like he has Sioux Falls in his future.

Sammy D’s value gets blown ridiculously out of proportion. He is portrayed as the savior of an otherwise struggling franchise. We all start convincing ourselves that he would be an idiot not to accept the Heat’s mid-level offer. We tell him to forget the money. Dude’s already banked $69 million in his career; another $21 from the Heat takes him to $90 mil. Focus on the rings, the home in Boca Raton, the Haitian community, the proximity to your homeland.

Dreams of a Norris Cole, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Samuel Dalembert starting five have us brimming with anticipation.

December 16: Seven days have now passed since the start of free agency. This is the final day in which teams can designate an amnesty candidate. Mike Miller is sweating profusely in his gorgeous West Palm Beach waterfront estate. He knows that for the Heat to have access to the full mid-level exception, he has to go.

Houston general manager Daryl Morey acknowledges that he is in negotiations with Dalembert. But he sounds conflicted. “We have interest in Sam. If it makes sense for him and us, we would love to have him. I think he’s somebody who could add presence in the middle, rebounding, shot blocking that could help us out. That said, I think our young guys are some guys that could develop and give us that as well.”

This is our chance. Riley strikes.

He reaches out to Sammy D one last time. He offers a guaranteed starting position in what now figures to be a much more up-tempo offense with Norris “No-No” Cole at the helm, and a full mid-level contract (four years, $21.4 million) to boot.

HTN of America, the full-time Haitian television network headquartered in Miami, offers Dalembert a lucrative TV contract. Radio R.C.H., the South Florida Haitian community radio station, simultaneously offers him a lucrative radio deal. ESPN propositions him for a commercial with Brett Favre mocking their infuriating indecision. None of this has anything to do with Pat Riley, of course.

Oh, and Riley informs Dalembert that if the offer is not accepted by end-of-day, the offer will drop to three years and $9.4 million (the “mini” mid-level exception).

***

What happens next we can only speculate.

Does Dalembert accept? Do Troy Murphy and Delonte West follow? Does Terrel Harris replace the now departed Mike Miller?

Where does Miller go? Does he clear amnesty waivers? Does he get swept up by the Bulls? the Knicks?

Does Dalembert reject? Do the Rockets, or perhaps the Kings on a one-year deal, then pony up bigger dollars for Sammy D?

Does the Heat roster remain as it is today – minus one Shane Battier, plus one Terrel Harris and one still unused “mini” mid-level exception? Does the Heat utilize that exception, or does it instead choose to recognize the $6 million in savings?

It’s a conclusion that will never be written.

The NBA was taking direct aim at the Miami Heat when it proposed its latest and, if you believe Commissioner David Stern’s stern ultimatum, final collective bargaining agreement proposal. Michael Jordan and his roving gang of hard-line scallywags are trying their damndest to force Pat Riley to break apart his creation.

In an ironic twist of fate, though, the proposal they’ve put forth in order to make him do so not only fails to prevent such a construct in the future, it actually encourages it.

The league’s proposal makes it expensive – prohibitively expensive – for teams to spend beyond the tax threshold. It also forces certain teams that use certain exceptions to stop spending entirely, under any circumstances. It’s essentially a hard salary cap in disguise. Ah, the financial parity!

But this isn’t the NFL. There aren’t 53 guys on an active roster. There aren’t 26 different positions to consider. There are 12 guys, playing five positions. True, game-changing talent is sparse. Each one has an enormous impact.

Think for a moment about what could happen under such a construct.

If, for example, every team in the league were given exactly $60 million to spend, how would you spend it? Would you give 12 mid-level talent guys mid-level money? Or would you give three maximum talent guys maximum contracts and fill out the roster with throw-ins?

The joining of forces of three game-changing talents is an exceedingly rare thing. It requires not only the desire of three such players, but also the foresight of a team to clear enough salary to even make it possible. It might happen but once a decade… or not at all.

The point, however, is that it is possible – even more possible under the league’s current proposal than it was under the last collectively bargained deal.

Under both systems, the maximum contract of a player with 7-9 years of experience is less than one-third of the salary cap (30% of the adjusted cap, or roughly 28% of the salary cap we commonly refer to). Three can fit quite comfortably, and with room to spare.

The Miami Heat took advantage of this fact. Riley spent several infuriating years clearing as much cap space as possible for the summer of 2010 in an effort to sign three game-changing talents. He took a huge risk. If Chris Bosh elects to pair up with LeBron James in Cleveland, Dwyane Wade likely bolts for Chicago and your Miami Heat become the doorstop of the league for the next decade. But he didn’t.

Two things, both of which would no longer exist under the league’s proposal, will kill the Heat in future seasons: (i) the players’ baseline salaries don’t adhere to the new, lower salary cap and (ii) the annual raises of those contracts will rise disproportionately to salary cap growth.

The first is a non-issue for a team emulating the strategy. If the salary cap gets slashed, the value of maximum contracts will get slashed proportionally.

The second is strongly mitigated. The contracts of James, Wade and Bosh each call for 10.5% annual raises; the contracts of Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem call for 8% annual raises. That’s quite hefty when you consider that the salary cap grew at a much more tempered 4% over the past six years.

In the league’s current proposal, annual raises are limited to 6.5% for a team’s own free agent, and just 3.5% otherwise. The salary cap is projected to grow at 4.5% over the next decade, and that excludes the potential huge growth from new national TV deals six years in. So… not only can a team theoretically fit three max contract free agents under the salary cap, their contracts could actually decrease relative to the rise in the salary cap in future seasons.

Here’s a pdf copy of the league’s proposal. And below is what it means mathematically (it is littered with assumptions, all of which are footnoted appropriately, but the results match all publicly-disclosed future values provided by the league):

The players union is no longer a union. Negotiations are over. Lawsuits have been filed. We’ve got time. So let’s build a hypothetical roster to prove out how the league’s parity-driven proposal actually does anything but.

We’ll start with a Year 3 model (as the NBA does in its example on the final slide) because the league has proposed a gradual shift toward the new revenue approach, with 2011-12 and 2012-13 to include some facets of the previous collective bargaining agreement.

The salary cap, from above, would be $60.2 million in 2013-14.

Three max contracts would cost $51.0 million. Nine temporary roster charges would eat up another $4.1 million, leaving $5.0 million for a fourth supposed starter. The rest would need to be some combination of minimum contract players and second round draft picks (much like the Heat of today).

But wait. Since the roster was constructed with cap space, this hypothetical team would have access to a new exception created for just these scenarios. The exception allows a team using room to thereafter sign one or more free agents to a contract with a total first year salary of up to $2.5 million (growing 3% annually) and up to two years in length.

This hypothetical team will now exceed the salary cap (again, much like the Heat of today). But it will remain so far below the luxury tax threshold that it would be eligible to exercise the full-midlevel exception in future seasons. And not just once. Every season thereafter. That’s huge!

Here’s a look at how the roster could evolve over time under the league’s current proposal:

That’s three max contract players, one mid-level talent, one not quite mid-level talent, and the rest minimum contract players for 2013-14… basically the Miami Heat of today. By 2016-17, though, it’s three max contract players, four mid-level talents, and the rest minimum contract players. That’s a veritable dynasty.

And here’s the kicker. This hypothetical team would not incur a single luxury tax bill. Ever. Instead, the hypothetical owner of this hypothetical dynasty could sit back, relax, and collect the proceeds of other teams’ tax bills as they incur massive penalties in a desperate attempt to compete.

So you see, the league’s proposal doesn’t discourage the formation of super-teams. It incentives teams to do it!

It basically says, “Go build your tri-headed dynasty. Because nobody else can be the Dallas Mavericks of this past season. Nobody else can spend such a ridiculous sum of money to create enough depth to put up a fight against your team, which has a total salary barely above the salary cap.”

And if you thought a tri-headed dynasty was too easy to achieve now, imagine it in a world where contract lengths are shorter and crippling cap-eaters can be amnestied (for existing contracts) or “stretched” (for new contracts) away.

Oops!

The proposal does unilaterally crush existing powerhouses like the much-maligned Heat for having built their empires under the auspices of an agreement that was more economically favorable. But it does nothing to prevent them from forming in the future. Oh, the hypocrisy of it all.

The league would be vulnerable to, say, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Dwight Howard joining forces in L.A. in 2012 if they so chose. Imagine how ridiculous that would be. Or how ridiculously flawed. Two legitimate superstars with nearly identical playing styles? Sounds familiar.

The Clippers currently have just two players with guaranteed contracts alongside Griffin through the 2012-13 season (Mo Williams and Ryan Gomes). One could be amnestied if billionaire owner Donald Sterling so chose. That would provide enough cap space to sign both Howard and Paul to max contracts, work out a reasonable long-term deal with then restricted free agent Eric Gordon, and still keep current rookie Al-Farouq Aminu. The Clips would then be in position to use the full mid-level exception on a free agent of its choosing and use Griffin’s Bird rights to re-sign him to a max contract the following season, when Griffin’s rookie scale deal expires.

That’s starters Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin, and Dwight Howard all under contract as early as 2012… another full mid-level exception player in 2013… AND this construct would still be nowhere near the luxury tax line.

Improbable? Absolutely. But that’s not the point. The point is that it’s possible.

Parity is a nice thought. But the concept is a bit naive. Certain teams will always have an advantage.

States with no income tax have an advantage over states that do. States near water have an advantage over states that are landlocked. The city of Angels has the Hollywood intrigue. The city of Apples has an energy unlike any other.

It is a stupid goal anyway. The league is at its most popular when there is specifically not parity.

The vilified Miami Heat of 2010-11 proved that. The nation was far more intrigued hating LeBron James than it ever was watching the revered version of the same man trying to make a go of it with a cast of throw-ins.

The NBA has always been a league of dynasties, with few teams able to break through and challenge the hegemony of the dominant franchises.

Consider the past.

1950-1960: Minneapolis Lakers, 4 titles
1960-1970: Boston Celtics, 9 titles
1980-1990: L.A. Lakers, 5 titles; Boston Celtics 3 titles; Detroit Pistons, 2 titles
1990-2000: Chicago Bulls, 6 titles; Houston Rockets, 2 titles
2000-2010: L.A. Lakers, 5 titles; San Antonio Spurs, 3 titles

You’ll notice the 1970-1980 decade is missing. That was the only period in league history that can truly be considered democratic. Eight different teams won championships: the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, Lakers, Warriors, Blazers, Bullets and Sonics. That would seem to be the kind of parity the league is now seeking.

The league was never less popular in its history than that period. The league was so unpopular at the time that its Finals games had to be shown on tape delay. In the most egalitarian 10-year stretch in league history, no one watched on television, and people hated the on-court product.

Accept it.

The most common misconception is that this is still just bunch of millionaires and billionaires who can’t seem to figure out how to split a $4 billion industry. Actually, both sides worked out that math just fine.

David Stern had been bracing for this fight for two long years. He wanted to clean Billy Hunter’s clock. He set himself up to win big, and he did. He forced the players to swallow a 50-50 deal. That’s a $343 million per year giveback over ten years. When you are up $3.4 billion, you take your chips off the table, grab a beer, and celebrate.

You celebrate because you know that the owners you represent are going to become filthy, stinking rich in the next decade. And it’s not just the $3.4 billion in cost savings. It’s the exploding revenues amidst the soaring popularity of the sport. The national TV rights deals with ESPN/ABC and TNT that you screwed up in 2007 could nearly double in size, from their current $930 billion baseline, when they are re-negotiated in 2016. The Lakers just struck the largest ever local TV rights deal with Time Warner Cable; 20-years, $3 billion. The Knicks just struck the largest ever sponsorship deal with JP Morgan Chase; 10-years, $300 million. The Nets just struck the largest ever arena naming rights deal with Barclays; 20-years, $200 million. The last thing you want to do is kill this momentum.

But Stern screwed up. He made a miscalculation in thinking there would not be a mutiny from within the player ranks if he pushed it too far. He issued a unilateral ultimatum – proving that this was more a shakedown than a negotiation.

And for what? To create a parity that isn’t even achievable. And isn’t popular anyway.

It’s not all on Stern. His responsibility is only to find that delicate balance between the fractioned owners he represents. This is as much a vendetta by the hard-line owners against those that refuse to share their revenues as it is an all out war between the league and its players.

Rumor has it that eleven hard-line owners expressed their displeasure with Stern’s latest proposal and are actively lobbying for a draconian rollback of salaries and rules governing player contracts and team payrolls. These eleven owners or ownership groups have been trying, with increasing success in recent weeks, to recruit more moderate owners to their cause.

The teams holding the hardest line in negotiations have reportedly been Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Indiana, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland and Washington. Bobcats owner Michael Jordan has emerged as the ringleader.

Are these eleven owners driving this? At what point, if ever, do the majority of owners tell them to sit down, shut up, and take the 50-50 as a massive win?

So what’s the next move? Take your $3.4 billion. Fold the hand. And let’s get on with the season.

Well… the Miami Heat traded up three spots in the 2011 NBA Draft, into the first round at No. 28, to select what it believes was the most promising point guard available in Norris Cole. It was a welcome aggression for a typically draft-passive organization.

We can debate whether Cole was the right guy for the pick.

Riley wanted a “pure” point guard; he got his man.

He got a talented one at that. When a player scores 41 points, grabs 20 rebounds, and dishes out 9 assists in a single game (even if it was versus an admittedly forgettable Youngstown State team), you know he’s a serious offensive threat. When that player also nabs his conference’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards in the same season (even if it was in the admittedly forgettable Horizon League), you have Norris Cole.

Cole rated out as the fourth and fifth best pure point guard in the draft, respectively, by Riley and ESPN draft guru Chad Ford. Riley had him ranked No. 18 on his draft board; Ford had him going as high as No. 21. But as a slender guard with short arms and questionable range, showcasing his talents in an inferior conference, he’s far from a sure thing. Time will tell.

We can debate whether trading up was necessary and justified.

Supporters will point to the fact that Riley was cognizant that the Spurs could jump in front of the Heat and select a point guard at No. 29, and in fact they did. Detractors will point to the wealth of available alternatives no matter whom the Spurs selected, as well as the enhanced financial obligations to a first round pick in what figures to be an uncertain salary cap environment.

No matter what you believe, the price was steep. More steep than necessary?

The Heat surrendered to the Wolves the Wolves’ own 2014 second round pick (figure it to be another in the early 30s) and cash considerations to move up three spots. The Bulls, as part of the same trade, surrendered to the Wolves a less attractive second round pick (No. 43) and cash considerations to move up five more valuable spots. The Bulls gave up less and got more.

In the 2010 draft, pick Nos. 25 and 31 were each sold for cash.

It would appear that adding in cash alone, or perhaps instead a future second round pick of their own, would have made for an eminently more reasonable swap for the Heat. It would appear that trading away the Wolves’ own 2014 second round pick and cash considerations would be enough to simply buy the No. 28 pick outright, without the need for a swap. Imagine the Heat with Norris Cole and a second youthful player selected with the No. 31 pick. Of course, we will never know whether such alternatives were bargained for.

And so now the Heat has just two low-level first round and five low-level second round draft picks over the next five years.

We, South Floridians, tend to think of Pat Riley as a masterful negotiator in trade. But, at least as relates to involving draft picks in such trades, recent results are hardly impressive. And, as this post depicts, ignoring the value of a future draft pick can be exceedingly costly.

The Heat has, in effect, traded away Michael Beasley in return for the draft rights to Norris Cole. If, as a result, the team has identified a key contributor, then all is well. If, by chance, the team has identified a deserving starter, then all is wonderful.

Is Norris Cole the Heat’s answer at point guard? The pressure is on.

And so it goes for Pat Riley and the Miami Heat.

Here’s to wishing Mr. Cole all the success in the world.

Pat Riley had a plan. He executed upon it with deadly precision. He got the big things so right that it almost didn’t matter how he handled the little things.

But not all of those little things went perfectly.

What if he did better with those little things? With the 2011 NBA draft now bearing down on us, would it have made any difference?

Navigating the uncertain waters of the draft has always been a special kind of hell for Riley. Riley’s draft record with the Heat reads more like a comedy of errors than it does a serious attempt at identifying talent.

Since having Dwyane Wade fall into his lap in 2003, only three players he’s selected have ever played more than eleven big-league minutes for the Heat – Dorell Wright, Wayne Simien, and Michael Beasley. The very next players taken in those drafts were Jameer Nelson, David Lee, and, two picks down, Russell Westbrook.

Even when Pat gets it right, he gets it wrong. Da’Sean Butler was labeled the steal of last season’s draft. But, for some (inexcusable) reason, Riley decided to offer Butler a contract while he was still recovering from his traumatic left knee injury. The contract sealed his fate. Da’Sean is no longer part of the Heat’s future.

Perhaps it is something of a blessing that he now has just eight picks, just two first rounders, to deal with over the next five years.

Was it a combination of strong basketball decisions or his strong aversion to the type of scrutiny that comes with the draft that led Riley and the Miami Heat to this position?

Riley again yesterday openly described his aversion.

“I don’t think you win championships with young, athletic players that don’t have experience. I think we’ve learned over the years that building with young players is very frustrating.”

But what if things were different?

What if the Heat had made some different decisions along the way?

There was Dorell Wright.

In a season to that point mired in frustration, and seemingly defined by the anticipation of things to come, keeping Wright at the trade deadline was perhaps the single most popular decision the Heat brass made. Riley and crew decided that Wright’s presence was more of a priority than the estimated $7.6 million addition to owner Micky Arison’s already fat wallet.

Wright responded in kind, offering some of the best work of his career.

But not all of us were so thrilled. A select few among us realized that if the Heat were to be successful in its bid for three max contract free agents, the team would need to soak up every possible opportunity to create depth around them.

The Grizzlies were offering a lottery-protected first round pick in return for his services. This select few realized that, despite Wright’s overwhelming popularity and still very much untapped potential, 26 final games from an unrestricted-free-agent-to-be was simply not worth $7.6 million and a future first round draft pick (particularly since Bird rights played no factor; the Heat’s ability to re-sign Wright in free agency would not have been hindered in any way by trading him). That pick ended up being No. 20 overall in tomorrow’s draft.

There was Daequan Cook.

We all understood the rationale behind surrendering the No. 18 overall pick in last year’s draft in order to be free of all obligations to Cook. With such high stakes, Miami could hardly afford to gamble on either the $2.2 million devoted to Cook or the $1.2 million to be devoted to whomever the pick would have become.

But not all of us agreed on the approach. Some of us felt that the $2.2 million could rather easily be shed simply by offering a potential suitor up to the $3.0 million cash limit the CBA allows. How many unprofitable smaller-market teams could realistically pass up the opportunity to add backcourt depth in the form of a young and developing Three-Point Shootout champion not only free of charge, but at an $830k profit?

These same people felt that treating the No. 18 overall pick with such apathy was imprudent, that it could be better utilized in a trade for a similar such pick in a future draft. As it turns out, Oklahoma City did just that. The Thunder traded the pick to the L.A. Clippers for a 2012 first round pick (top-10 protected through 2015, unprotected in 2016).

There was the Big Three.

When Chris Bosh and LeBron James made their decisions, there was elation. When they were signed, there was controversy.

Surrendering four first round picks and two second round picks, in addition to two large trade exceptions, seemed a bit excessive to some of us for a couple of players who were otherwise already committed to the Miami Heat. It seemed a bit excessive in return for nothing more than a sixth season tacked on to an already huge five-year contract.

The question has been asked. What if things were different?

Let’s try to answer it.

Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby would still be battling it out for starter’s minutes at the point.

Eddie House and Da’Sean Butler would be battling it out for reserve two-guard minutes. Mike Miller would, unfortunately, be playing under a long-term contract elsewhere.

James Jones would still be the Heat’s primary reserve small forward.

Udonis Haslem’s contract would remain unaltered.

The disastrous contingent of Heat centers would remain unaltered (assuming, of course, that Pittman would have still been on the board at No. 41; no mock draft had him even being selected).

LeBron James and Chris Bosh would be playing under full maximum contracts, sacrificing that sixth year guarantee in exchange for an added $8.4 million over the first five.

Dwyane Wade would still be playing under a six year contract, earning $4.8 million more than he is today.

And the Miami Heat would have six – yes, six! – more first round draft picks and two more second round draft picks over the next five years, including a likely lottery pick from the Clippers in 2012 and a potential unprotected first round pick from the Raptors in 2015.

In short, the Heat would have produced the very same roster, save for swapping out Mike Miller for Da’Sean Butler, and would have stockpiled a whopping eight first round picks and eight second round picks over the next five years.

That’s 16 picks in just five years! No other team in the league has anywhere near that total.

(For those that are counting, the first round picks would have been: Miami’s own 2011-15, Memphis’ 2011, L.A. Clippers’ top-10 protected 2012, and Toronto’s potentially unprotected 2015. The second round picks would have been: Miami’s own 2013-2015, Oklahoma City’s 2011, Minnesota’s 2011 and 2014, New Orleans’ 2012, and Memphis’ top-55 protected 2012.)

One has to wonder.

What would two first round picks (Nos. 20, 28), a second round pick (No. 31), and the Clippers’ top-10 protected first round pick in next year’s draft get you? A top ten pick in this year’s draft? More?

What would two first round picks (Nos. 20, 28), a second round pick (No. 31), the Clippers’ top-10 protected first round pick in next year’s draft, and what figures to be a fully unprotected Raptors first round pick in 2015 get you? The No. 2 overall pick from a Minnesota Timberwolves team actively looking to trade it? More?

The possibilities with that grouping of picks would have, in this fictional reality, been endless.

If Riley’s aversion to the draft was ever present, think of the potential trade possibilities. By way of example, rumor would have you believe that the Phoenix Suns were shopping Marcin Gortat and their No. 13 pick for the No. 2 pick. Imagine if the Heat had acquired that No. 2 pick, and then pulled the trigger on this trade (involving, perhaps, Joel, the unguaranteed contract of Dexter, and any one of the minimum contractors who picks up his second year option to make the math work).

How would Gortat look in a Heat uniform? He’s huge, he’s athletic, he’s among the best pick-and-roll operators around, he’s got a soft touch around the rim, he’s got good range, he’s a solid post defender, and he’s a beast on the boards. Is there a more perfect fit for this Miami Heat team, outside of Dwight Howard, in the whole of the NBA? Can you imagine how dominant such a Big Four would be?

How would Jimmer Fredette look with that No. 13 pick?

How would it feel to have secured both Gortat and Fredette, and still have four first round and seven second round picks to play with over the next five years?

It’s not as if an entirely unrealistic scenario is being painted here. Many of us were questioning each one of these little decisions made by Riley and his crew as they were happening. Of course, they are now important only for those among us who choose to live in the past.

The lesson, however, remains the same: Ignore the NBA draft at your own peril.

Here’s to hoping for a good day tomorrow.

Here’s to hoping the Miami Heat spend the time and effort in seeking out the best possible fit for this team. Reggie Jackson? Charles Jenkins?

Here’s to hoping that, no matter who it is the Miami Heat select, they take the time to properly develop him.

They conspired. They manipulated. They hatched a wicked plan nearly three years in the making and executed upon it with deadly precision in the span of less than forty-eight hours, to the shock and awe of supporters and detractors alike. They changed the rules for defining success in basketball’s greatest league to such an unprecedented extent that we’re all left searching for ways to invalidate the possibility in any new collective bargaining agreement to come. Hate the Miami Heat for it.

Hate them for what they did.

They bought themselves a contender. The league essentially gave them a blank check to buy every big name on the free agent market and they did. They didn’t plan carefully. They didn’t earn their successes by enduring years of mediocrity. They just opened up their wallets and paid what nobody else could. There’s simply no honor in that.

It is far more honorable to draft and develop, to struggle season after season without taking steps to improve the franchise if the fruits of those struggles are consecutive lottery picks rather than freed up cap space. It is far more honorable to strong-arm smaller-market, salary-dumping teams that cannot otherwise afford to keep their talent into making lopsided, megastar trades.

Hate them for how they did it.

There was the issue of timing.

We, as a nation, have such a high standard of morality as to cry foul when impending free agents wish to speak with each other about the possibility of teaming up if such conversations happen in the few days leading up to the official start of free agency, because even though the timing of such conversations has absolutely nothing to do with the ultimate outcome, they are a violation of a set of rules we each understand completely and believe in deeply. We find it appalling that a couple of friends approaching the ends of their contracts would have the audacity to discuss the possibility of seeking employment together.

It may strike us as odd that we, as a nation of such high moral character, can lodge such allegations without any actual evidence. But never mind that. We don’t need facts. We’re perfectly right to disregard that twenty-nine competing NBA franchises did not have issue enough (or, perhaps, evidence enough) to mention it to the commissioner – who would then, bound by the rules we hold so dear, be forced to investigate… and dole out the stiffest of penalties the league allows for any such violations uncovered.

There was the issue of loyalty.

We should vilify the game’s best player for having the temerity to leave his hometown team after seven seasons of unrivaled individual success but little in the way of what really matters to show for it. This hometown hero, its heart and soul, its lifeblood, was nothing more than a caricature of loyalty. How dare such an incredible athlete put the prospect of winning a title above all else. He should be ostracized for such unthinkable behavior.

We’re okay if a certain star from Los Angeles crucifies his team in front of a national audience and demands a trade, and then goes on to demand that certain of his teammates be traded. We’re even okay if that certain someone hails from Denver, and he holds his team hostage during the middle of an active NBA season while demanding a trade to a single team, providing his organization with no other options, and showing no apparent regard for his teammates or hometown fans in the process. We’re okay with these actions because our standard applies only to the best player in the game. All others are free to move without encountering our wrath.

We empathize with Clevelanders. Its residents are of too high a moral character for such a grand betrayal. Burning jerseys, death threats, ridiculous tongue-lashings from former owners – these are all perfectly appropriate responses to a single man’s decision to seek employment elsewhere. They are the actions of people deserving our sympathy.

There was the “Decision.”

How could a man possibly use a national audience for such a sickening hour-long display of pure narcissism? When all fourteen million of us tuned in from around the nation with eager anticipation, we thought he was planning to discuss the weather. We were utterly floored when LeBron used such a grand stage to announce the team for which he was planning to start the next phase of his NBA career. That’s why we were sickened with disgust when it was all over, but perfectly okay with it as it was happening. We weren’t glued to our television sets to celebrate his decision on the off chance he named our own favorite teams, setting our own favorite teams up for a title run. We simply had no idea what was coming. We were blind-sighted. We had no idea he was such a narcissist.

How could we? It’s not like any other professional athletes are narcissists, certainly not recently retired seven-foot basketball stars. It’s not like he was our own creation. The media didn’t put him on the cover of Sports Illustrated at 16 years-old. Fans didn’t pack high school gyms so tightly that his Saint Vincent Saint Mary’s team had to find larger venues. ESPN didn’t nationally televise his games. We didn’t herald him as the ideal mix between Magic, Michael, and Dr. J, a force so great that his dominance would be unparalleled. We certainly didn’t expect anything but humility while we anointed him “King.” This wasn’t the life we thrust upon him before he even graduated from high school.

We’re not at all to blame. We’re not eviscerating a person’s reputation for something we created. We’re not hypocrites for revering him during his entire seven year reign in Cleveland, and branding him a narcissist the moment he decided to leave. That one fateful day in July truly was the day we discovered his narcissism. And the fact that we ourselves are not equally narcissistic gives us ample reason for hate. Dan Gilbert, the man who tried so desperately to retain a player who he called a “coward” and a “quitter,” has it all right.

But what really pushed it all over the edge was his failure to inform his former employer in advance. That would have made everything okay. That few minutes makes all the difference in the world. Because we all inform our contemptible former employers what we plan to do next in our lives, particularly when we suspect they will demonize us for our decision. We would all have the type of courtesy that Dan Gilbert showed LeBron in return for years of dedication to his team and city.

There was the premature celebration.

How could LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh take part in an act of such vanity, rising from beneath a smoking metal stage – before one quarter had been played, before one victory had been secured – and claiming to have orchestrated the birth of a historical dynasty right before our eyes? We, as a nation, understand that this blatant mockery and disrespect for the struggles a championship team endures was meant to humiliate the rest of the league and all of its fans. It’s not as if they were celebrating the best free agent haul in NBA history in their own city, in their own arena, in front of their own crowd. It’s not as if they were trying to inspire excitement from their own fan base. And it’s certainly not as if the media decided to broadcast the celebration across the country simply to capitalize on the pulse of the nation. The media would never do such things.

Hate these bastards for who they are. Hate them!

Hate them for their total lack of anything resembling character, humility, graciousness, or any other positive human trait.

Hate LeBron James for sacrificing his legacy and his worldwide fan base for a shot at a title. Hate him for sacrificing $16 million and, more importantly, the notoriety that comes with being a so-called “maximum contract player,” in part to create the cap space required to secure a roster spot for the long-time friend of his new teammate, a man he hardly knew (Udonis Haslem). Qualify his pay-cut as an attempt at perceived modesty, but not the “Decision” as simply a bad decision. Qualify his donation of the $2.5 million in proceeds generated from that bad decision to the Boy & Girls Clubs of America as just a byproduct of his narcissism, but ignore the impact it has had on the lives of children in desperate need. Ignore an entire career of giving both his time and money to a wide range of charities, for which the NBA has bestowed upon him its Community Assist Award, unmatched by nearly every one of us who now condemns him.

Imagine the audacity of this man to create financial stability for himself through his profession, and still have the mind to give back to those in need. Imagine the audacity of a man to rise above his difficult childhood circumstances – born to an uninterested ex-con father and a 16-year old mother, growing up in the seediest neighborhoods of Akron, surrounded by criminals – and limit his lifelong off-court transgressions to perhaps the occasional traffic ticket. This isn’t a man best described as a role model.

Hate Dwyane Wade for considering the Bulls, contemplating the notion in order to do what was best for his family amid a custody dispute over his children at the time living in Chicago. Hate him for sacrificing $18 million, in part so that his team could create the cap space required to secure a roster spot for the long-time friend of his new teammate (Mike Miller).

Hate Chris Bosh for wherever it is you think he strayed from the path of perfection we all follow. Hate him for sacrificing $16 million for no apparent reason at all.

Hate Udonis Haslem for sacrificing $13 million in what could very well be his final NBA contract so that he could remain by the side of his dying mother and the rest of his family.

Hate James Jones for sacrificing $1 million in buyout money after he had already been waived so that his hometown Heat could acquire the necessary cap space for a third max contract free agent and make this whole dream possible, a team he no longer played for. Hate Pat Riley for doing right by the sacrifice and offering Jones a new contract in return for his selflessness.

Hate them for oozing arrogance and celebrating boisterously, but never disparaging. There were no “fake tough guy” snipes, no “great actors” accusations, no allegations of dirty play levied after all the choke-holds and take-downs, no blasting of players or officials or cities or fans, and no retaliation when such comments were laid upon them. About the best we could do was to criticize LeBron for muttering the phrase “that’s retarded” at the retarded notion that his teammate would intend to injure an opposing player and apologizing for it after the world ignored the context.

Do whatever you must to fuel that hatred and ensure its survival. Create an ever-expanding list of reasons to justify it, and apply it exclusively to the Miami Heat and its players, while casually ignoring its applicability to most players and most teams across the league.

Call them floppers, but ignore the reality. Sports Illustrated ran an informal player poll in April – just two months ago – asking for the NBA’s biggest floppers. More than a third of the league’s current players, 152 in total, were polled. Among the top 15 players named as floppers were Manu Ginobili, Derek Fisher, J.J. Barea, Kobe Bryant, and Paul Pierce. Not a single current Heat player made the list.

Call them whiners, but ignore the reality. Sports Illustrated ran an article at the start of the season devoted to the league’s most notorious whiners, in response to the league’s new crackdown on complaining. Nearly every major superstar made the top 15. The list includes Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Manu Ginobili, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, and Dirk Nowitzki, among others. The fact of the matter is that everybody whines. The Heatles are no different.

Call them thugs, but ignore the reality. Not a single current Heat player has ever received any notoriety for dirty play prior to this, perception-altered-by-hate, season. Among the teams commonly associated with such behavior are the Celtics (Kevin Garnett’s swinging elbows and trash talking, Paul Pierce’s chronic jersey pulling and newfound affinity for head-butting, Rajon Rondo’s player-into-scorer’s-table launching) and Lakers (Ron Artest’s exceedingly violent behavior, Kobe Bryant’s notorious cheap shots, Andrew Bynum’s vicious forearms, and even Lamar Odom’s recent frustration-induced rage). It just so happens that these are nonetheless the league’s two most popular teams.

When they lose, call them idiots for thinking they could make it work. When they win, call them inferior for not doing it alone. But ignore Chicagoans salivating at the prospect of pairing Derrick Rose with Dwight Howard. Ignore New Yorkers salivating at the prospect of pairing Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire with Chris Paul. Ignore Mark Cuban’s all out effort to pair Dirk Nowtizki with LeBron after more than a decade of regular season success and post-season failure. Ignore the big three in Boston. Ignore the big four in L.A.

Ignore the fact that Wade is nice, James is fun, Bosh is sincere, the team is a family, and the way they play the game is so damn selfless.

Ignore the fact that any mistakes that may have been made along the way have been intentionally blown out of proportion by a media craving a headline.

Ignore the fact that we allowed ourselves to get manipulated into losing perspective.

And so now that the Heat has been taken out in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, you have your wish. We’ve been humbled. We’ve been humiliated.

And so now, as with all things left unsaid and undone, we can only wait for another chance.

Thank you to the Miami Heat for a wonderful season. You have shown class in the face of immaturity. You have shown poise in the face of irrationality. I, for one, appreciate it.

Congratulations to the Dallas Mavericks on being NBA champions.

This Miami Heat team is positively thrilling. And while they don’t enter the playoffs tonight without flaws, they also have a legitimate shot at marching through the Sixers, Celtics, and Bulls all the way to the NBA Finals. Yet thanks to the squabbling of millionaires and billionaires over how to divide a $4 billion industry, this may be the last time for a long time to enjoy it.

Negotiations surrounding a new NBA collective bargaining agreement to replace the current six-year deal that expires on June 30 are not just in a stalemate. They’re turning nasty. A lockout seems inevitable. And it could last a while. It could wipe out the entire 2011-12 season.

The information, misinformation, accusations and counter-accusations are flying so fast and furious that you need an accounting degree and a decade of practical experience under your belt to actually be able to make sense of it all.

The two sides remain deeply divided over what percentage of revenue the players should receive and how owners should share their money.

Players currently receive not less than 57% of every dollar generated by the NBA in salaries and benefits. Players have no costs. Every dollar they make, they get to take home (excluding withholding taxes, of course).

Owners need to net their 43% share of revenues against all the costs of fielding their teams. According to Commissioner David Stern, the NBA will lose roughly $300 million this season. That’s actually better than the $340 million in losses last year and even better than the $370 million in losses the year before that. Stern has also spoken of losses of at least $200 million in each of the first three seasons of the current agreement.

That’s $1.6 billion in losses in six years. That’s huge! And the league has sent both audited financial data and tax returns to the player’s association to substantiate the losses.

The NBA is claiming the business model is broken.

Owners are seeking a complete overhaul of the league’s financial system, and have submitted proposals to the players that feature a hard salary cap, rollbacks to existing player salaries, shorter contract lengths, reduced annual raises, and the reduction of the players’ share of revenues from the current 57% to less than 40%.

But the players disagree with the story the numbers tell.

The players contend that the vast majority of the so-called losses is the result of creative accounting and tax loopholes. They contend that only a small number of teams are suffering, and that their problems can be addressed primarily through enhanced revenue sharing. Read more…

The Miami Heat is averaging 101.3 points per game thus far this season, while shooting 47.0% from the field.

That’s the best ever scoring output in the Pat Riley era and the second best efficiency mark in the NBA. Mighty impressive stuff for a team still very much a work-in-progress.

Yet hidden behind these statistics is a highly disturbing reality. The team simply cannot score in the half court. And Erik Spoelstra’s offensive system is to blame.

The expectation heading into the season was that the Heat would torment teams in transition, that Dwyane Wade and Lebron James would captivate us regularly with electrifying fastbreak dunks.

And, for the most part, they have. The Heat is shooting 61.3% en route to an average of 1.22 points on each transition possession, best in the league.

But the team only gets about 14 transition opportunities per game. While that’s actually quite a high total, it still leaves around 85 half court sets to deal with.

The problem, quite simply, is a fundamental lack of team basketball. Read more…